THE PALLILOG
Evaluating depths of Astros challenges, opportunities for redemption
May 9, 2024, 8:49 pm
The Astros are down, but not out. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images.
How badly the Astros have stunk truly is stunning. Yet it could be worse than the eight games they find themselves behind the American League West leading Rangers. The Astros have stunk like rotten eggs sprayed by a skunk. At 13-24 starting their series in Detroit this weekend it’s as simple as that until or unless they prove otherwise. It’s been a total team effort. The offense, defense, and pitching have all failed miserably.
If it takes an unusually low bar of 86 wins to get into the American League playoffs this year, the Astros have to go 73-52 the rest of the way to get there. That’s a .584 winning percentage, which over a full 162 game regular season schedule produces 94 wins. Can the Astros win at that rate the rest of the way? Impossible, no. Improbable, yes. And again, that’s to get to 86 wins. The final AL Wild Card spot last season went to Toronto which won 89 games. The Astros need 76-49 to reach 89. That’s a .608 winning percentage which over 162 games yields 98 wins. Good luck with that.
For those desperately seeking and/or rightfully clinging to some hope:
The 1978 New York Yankees woke up July 20 14 games out of a playoff spot. They won the World Series.
The 2019 Nationals began their season 19-31. They won the World Series.
While they didn’t win the World Series, the 2005 Astros got there after beginning their season 15-30.
Struggles at the plate
At the end of his third full season in the big leagues Alex Bregman was on an early Hall of Fame track. His stats through that third season were better than the first three full season numbers of Mike Schmidt, George Brett, and Chipper Jones, merely three of the top five third basemen of all time (Eddie Mathews is definitely one of the other two, Wade Boggs may be the second). Schmidt, Brett, and Jones obviously went on to legendary careers.
Bregman at 30 years old looks as washed up as Jose Abreu did at this point last season. That is not saying Bregman is finished, but it makes stark the reality that Bregman has been pitiful and shows near zero signs of getting going. He was inept through April, finishing with a .216 batting average and .577 OPS. That was the good part of his season. In May he’s been “Breggy Bum,” batting average .138. Season numbers going into Detroit: Batting average .198, OPS .534. Context time. Over his last three seasons with the Astros, paragon of offensive lousiness Martin Maldonado posted a .593 OPS.
About as shocking as Bregman’s offensive coma, for nearly the last month Yordan Alvarez has been abysmal. Maybe naptime ended Thursday with a home run and a double. Over his last 24 games Yordan has hit more like Canelo Alvarez. If Canelo had both hands tied behind his back. Batting average .187, slugging percentage .341. Brad Ausmus's career slugging percentage was .344.
That Jon Singleton has slotted in as the primary first baseman is suboptimal. Good for him that he popped a couple of home runs to help the Astros win two games on their last homestand and launched a rocket at Yankee Stadium Thursday, but that the 32-year-old Singleton is the best they have and a good bet to be a strong producer going forward this season? Sheesh. Meanwhile Jose Abreu plays shuffleboard and bingo and takes swings against rookie ball pitchers in Florida.
On the bump
The Astros definitely have had injury misfortune in their starting rotation, but they also boxed themselves in. They obviously overrated their pitching depth, and that is not 20/20 hindsight. Justin Verlander is a cinch Hall of Famer but his last fully healthy season was 2019. Planning on him as a workhorse ace as opposed to a solid starter was a fingers crossed deal. Verlander looked very 41 years old as the Yankees pasted him Tuesday night.
Neither Framber Valdez nor Cristian Javier was good the second half of last season, so inking them in as money for two of the top three spots in the rotation was at least as much hope as expectation. Believing J.P. France was fine as the fourth or fifth starter cut against his 2023 fade down the stretch and his minor league background. Banking on Hunter Brown making a big leap in his second season had no solid basis. Spencer Arrighetti clearly does not belong in a legit big league rotation. Props to Ronel Blanco who has been unsustainably excellent.
Jose Urquidy’s earned run average was 5.29 last year so getting him back will be no surefire big upgrade.
Counting on Lance McCullers to pitch well and stay healthy is like counting on James Harden to come up big in an NBA playoff elimination game. By the time McCullers starts his season (allegedly) some time after the All-Star break, the Astros will have paid him more than 25 million dollars since his last pitch in a big league game. Being stuck with McCullers’s contract of 17 million dollars per season for 2025 and 2026 obviously made the Astros reluctant to spend on a depth starter, especially with Luis Garcia also in the convalescing club. Trouble is, by the time they get back (with no assurance of a bunch of quality work from them) to try to pour some water on the fire, the house may have already burned to the ground.
Nevertheless, the Astros are not hopeless yet. Neither should be their fans.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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