THE PALLILOG
Evaluating depths of Astros challenges, opportunities for redemption
May 9, 2024, 8:49 pm
The Astros are down, but not out. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images.
How badly the Astros have stunk truly is stunning. Yet it could be worse than the eight games they find themselves behind the American League West leading Rangers. The Astros have stunk like rotten eggs sprayed by a skunk. At 13-24 starting their series in Detroit this weekend it’s as simple as that until or unless they prove otherwise. It’s been a total team effort. The offense, defense, and pitching have all failed miserably.
If it takes an unusually low bar of 86 wins to get into the American League playoffs this year, the Astros have to go 73-52 the rest of the way to get there. That’s a .584 winning percentage, which over a full 162 game regular season schedule produces 94 wins. Can the Astros win at that rate the rest of the way? Impossible, no. Improbable, yes. And again, that’s to get to 86 wins. The final AL Wild Card spot last season went to Toronto which won 89 games. The Astros need 76-49 to reach 89. That’s a .608 winning percentage which over 162 games yields 98 wins. Good luck with that.
For those desperately seeking and/or rightfully clinging to some hope:
The 1978 New York Yankees woke up July 20 14 games out of a playoff spot. They won the World Series.
The 2019 Nationals began their season 19-31. They won the World Series.
While they didn’t win the World Series, the 2005 Astros got there after beginning their season 15-30.
Struggles at the plate
At the end of his third full season in the big leagues Alex Bregman was on an early Hall of Fame track. His stats through that third season were better than the first three full season numbers of Mike Schmidt, George Brett, and Chipper Jones, merely three of the top five third basemen of all time (Eddie Mathews is definitely one of the other two, Wade Boggs may be the second). Schmidt, Brett, and Jones obviously went on to legendary careers.
Bregman at 30 years old looks as washed up as Jose Abreu did at this point last season. That is not saying Bregman is finished, but it makes stark the reality that Bregman has been pitiful and shows near zero signs of getting going. He was inept through April, finishing with a .216 batting average and .577 OPS. That was the good part of his season. In May he’s been “Breggy Bum,” batting average .138. Season numbers going into Detroit: Batting average .198, OPS .534. Context time. Over his last three seasons with the Astros, paragon of offensive lousiness Martin Maldonado posted a .593 OPS.
About as shocking as Bregman’s offensive coma, for nearly the last month Yordan Alvarez has been abysmal. Maybe naptime ended Thursday with a home run and a double. Over his last 24 games Yordan has hit more like Canelo Alvarez. If Canelo had both hands tied behind his back. Batting average .187, slugging percentage .341. Brad Ausmus's career slugging percentage was .344.
That Jon Singleton has slotted in as the primary first baseman is suboptimal. Good for him that he popped a couple of home runs to help the Astros win two games on their last homestand and launched a rocket at Yankee Stadium Thursday, but that the 32-year-old Singleton is the best they have and a good bet to be a strong producer going forward this season? Sheesh. Meanwhile Jose Abreu plays shuffleboard and bingo and takes swings against rookie ball pitchers in Florida.
On the bump
The Astros definitely have had injury misfortune in their starting rotation, but they also boxed themselves in. They obviously overrated their pitching depth, and that is not 20/20 hindsight. Justin Verlander is a cinch Hall of Famer but his last fully healthy season was 2019. Planning on him as a workhorse ace as opposed to a solid starter was a fingers crossed deal. Verlander looked very 41 years old as the Yankees pasted him Tuesday night.
Neither Framber Valdez nor Cristian Javier was good the second half of last season, so inking them in as money for two of the top three spots in the rotation was at least as much hope as expectation. Believing J.P. France was fine as the fourth or fifth starter cut against his 2023 fade down the stretch and his minor league background. Banking on Hunter Brown making a big leap in his second season had no solid basis. Spencer Arrighetti clearly does not belong in a legit big league rotation. Props to Ronel Blanco who has been unsustainably excellent.
Jose Urquidy’s earned run average was 5.29 last year so getting him back will be no surefire big upgrade.
Counting on Lance McCullers to pitch well and stay healthy is like counting on James Harden to come up big in an NBA playoff elimination game. By the time McCullers starts his season (allegedly) some time after the All-Star break, the Astros will have paid him more than 25 million dollars since his last pitch in a big league game. Being stuck with McCullers’s contract of 17 million dollars per season for 2025 and 2026 obviously made the Astros reluctant to spend on a depth starter, especially with Luis Garcia also in the convalescing club. Trouble is, by the time they get back (with no assurance of a bunch of quality work from them) to try to pour some water on the fire, the house may have already burned to the ground.
Nevertheless, the Astros are not hopeless yet. Neither should be their fans.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
How Astros constructed statement win over Brewers in critical stretch
May 19, 2024, 6:53 pm
One presumes the Chicken Littles have stopped clucking about the Astros’ season being a goner, or if not gone, on life support. It wasn’t when they were 7-19. It wasn’t when they were 12-24. It certainly isn’t now that they’ve won six straight games and eight of their last nine. Another three or four weeks of inept play could have doomed them, but the worm has turned. A 20-25 record is no cause for celebration, but it has the Astros within four games of first place. Yes, getting to play the A’s four times this week helped. And?
I detailed the schedule issue on our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast this week. The Astros were flat lousy for the season’s first six weeks. But… Starting the week the Astros had played a whopping 32 of their 40 games against teams with a winning record as of Monday. The Seattle Mariners had played 23 such games, the Texas Rangers only 16. The Philadelphia Phillies have been sensational so far and are fully legit. But… The Phillies entered the weekend having played three games vs. teams now sporting a winning record. Three! Out of 45 games. Going into this weekend's series only the Blue Jays, White Sox, and Angels had played more games against winning teams than had the Astros. It’s not mere coincidence that the Blue Jays, White Sox, and Angels are the three last place teams in the American League. The Astros were not up to the challenge of their first quarter schedule, but by no means did it render them dead, particularly in the thus far Mild, Mild, American League West.
A good Brewers team visits Minute Maid Park for three games this weekend. The Astros beat their best starter Friday night. Next the Astros get the pathetic Angels here for three before a three-game series at Oakland. Meanwhile the West leading Mariners start a ten-game road trip this weekend: three at the excellent Orioles, four at the excellent Yankees, three at the respectable Nationals. The Astros stand a good chance of overtaking the M’s by the end of this month if they can win the four-game series they open Memorial Day in Seattle.
Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers snapped a five game losing streak Wednesday to eke back over .500 at 23-22. The reigning World Series champs hope to get somewhat well vs. the Angels in Arlington this weekend but dropped the series opener to drop back to .500. For their sake they better because the Rangers then hit the road for Philadelphia and Minnesota.
Naturally, many Astros fans are upset with Ronel Blanco serving a 10 game suspension for illegally using whatever substance on his glove and non-pitching hand. The suspension is basically automatic. The suspension is also not a big problem. Blanco has been fantastic since getting a starting rotation spot only because of Justin Verlander’s delayed start to his season. It’s said that all life owes us is opportunity. Man, did Blanco seize his. With just seven big league starts to his name before entering this season as a 30-year old, Blanco has made eight this season with a sparkling 2.09 earned run average. So, what’s that about the suspension is not a big problem?
Blanco will miss one start and have another pushed back a day or two. That’s just not a big deal. In fact it may be helpful in the bigger picture. With last year being the first time in his professional career that Blanco topped 100 innings pitched (125 1/3), the Astros need to be wary of Blanco’s workload which is on pace to blow past last year’s career-high innings total. J.P. France probably pitched over his head for a while last year, but went well past his prior career-high innings total and faded badly. Cristian Javier was tremendous in 2022 while pitching more than in any previous year, but he pitched even more in 2023 and faded badly.
Alex Bregman lives! After being nearly inconceivably inept through the first quarter of the season, the Alex awakening in the Oakland series was not shocking but most welcomed. Over his first 37 games Bregman had a paltry seven extra base hits. Even with a feeble .201 batting average and .534 OPS, that Bregman had scored just eight runs over those 37 games was hard to believe. Then Monday and Tuesday saw five extra base hits and four runs scored.
In a trade not commanding any headlines, Dana Brown Wednesday sent outfielder Corey Julks to the White Sox for 20-year-old low minor league pitcher Luis Rodriguez. There is now no reason to call it a great Astros trade but Brown made a smart deal. Julks had no future here, hence he would have been released if no deal was struck. Taking a flyer on a young arm can’t hurt. Frankly, the White Sox are dumb to trade a young arm of any promise whatsoever for a 28-year-old outfielder with limited value. Julks was a nice story for parts of last season. The Clear Brook High School grad and UH product had a couple windows of production, highlighted by a sizzling nine game 17 for 34 stretch straddling June and July. Alas, not two weeks later Julks began what would become an 0 for 36 nightmare. He was sent to the minors for good in late-August.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.