THE PALLILOG
Despite frustrating start, these 3 outstanding performers are giving plenty reason for Astros optimism
Apr 4, 2024, 2:37 pm
The Astros are back in action on Friday night against the Rangers. Composite Getty Image.
It’s only one week. It’s only one week. It’s only one week. A crummy week it was for the Astros, with too often inept play at Minute Maid Park resulting in a 2-5 season opening homestand. It’s as if it’s still 2023. Dating to last season, regular season and playoffs the Astros are a stupefying 9-27 in their last 36 home games. Yet they annoyingly insist on keeping the roof closed when conditions are wonderful for open air baseball thinking it’s better for their homefield advantage. Lame. Good news, road trip time! Four in Arlington against the reigning World Series Champion Texas Rangers, then three in Kansas City against the improved but still not good Royals.
The Astros or any Astro fan would obviously have gleefully pounced if offered a starting pitching earned run average of 1.29 through the first seven games. 1.29 it is, highlighted by Ronel Blanco’s Monday no-hitter against Toronto. Knowing nothing else you’d guess their record would be at least 5-2, yet the Astros arrive in Arlington at 2-5 because the bullpen has been largely abysmal--both the everyone knew questionable middle relief and the rightfully hyped Bryan Abreu/Ryan Pressly/Josh Hader back end, and timely hitting has been lousy overall. It was one week.
In another reminder that spring training statistics are worthless other than when they help someone win a job, Alex Bregman is off to another sluggish start to the regular season. In Florida Bregman talked of expecting to have his best season ever. Confidence is generally a good thing, but there is very little chance that comes to pass. In 2019 Bregman was a monster and runner-up for the American League Most Valuable Player Award. He hasn’t had a season anywhere near that level since. But, after speaking of having had his best offseason of preparation in years, Bregman hit .383 in the Grapefruit League! With a 1.027 OPS! Yeah, against mostly Triple-A level pitching.
Bregman finished the first week of games that count batting .200 with a .590 OPS. One of his five hits was a gift because of the stupid MLB rule that officially gave Bregman a hit after Jose Altuve ran into a weak grounder off of Bregman’s bat. Last year Bregman finished April batting .219 with a .697 OPS. In 2022 it was .233/.791. For his career Bregman’s OPS through April is a middling .758. The good news is every month May through September/October (not counting playoffs) he has posted at least an .836 career OPS. There is no solid basis to believe Bregman won’t produce a good season ahead of entering free agency. But superstar numbers, probably not.
Welcome to the season, Yordan Alvarez! His two homer, four hit night Wednesday need not have produced sighs of relief. His .125 average on three for 24 through the first six games was feeble, but simply not a big deal. It’s just extra ugly when it represents all one’s stats to date. Last season Alvarez had a four for 28 stretch and a separate two for 21. His numbers turned out ok. One can pretty safely presume they will again this year.
Further on the plus side, Jose Altuve is Jose Altuve (alas including some doofy baserunning). Jeremy Pena is off to an excellent start, including his first two homers since July 5. Yainer Diaz has been fantastic. With Martin Maldonado not here clogging the pipes, Diaz stands a great chance at being an All-Star catcher in his first season as a primary starter. The ball simply explodes off Yainer’s bat. As encouraging, he’s already drawn three walks. Last season Diaz didn’t draw his third walk until June 9 in his 84th plate appearance of the season. It was absurd that it took until June 9 for that third walk, but not as absurd as that it took until June 9 for him to reach 84 plate appearances. In case you’re wondering, Maldonado is thus far zero for 2024 with the White Sox.
Jose Abreu on the other hand…
To this still very early point the 37-year-old first baseman looks washed up, not that he should be declared so yet. However, after being one of the worst everyday players in the bigs last season it is not encouraging that Abreu has managed two opposite field singles for his only hits in 19 at bats. He is routinely late on fastballs, and having to cheat to try to catch up to them makes him more vulnerable to off-speed stuff. It’s not imminent but there could come a point where the Astros need to accept the Abreu signing as a big swing and a miss with moving on becoming the best option.
Abreu is guaranteed 19 and a half million dollars this season. And next. It would be a move more easily made if the Astros had an elite first baseman prospect. They do not. Joey Loperfido would be the hope. He’s had quite a feast or famine season start with the Sugar Land Space Cowboys. Loperfido homered for them opening night then hit two more dingers the next night. Then Tuesday Loperfido posted a platinum sombrero plus one: six at bats, six strikeouts. Wednesday, another homer.
Our second season of Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast is underway. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics weekly. The first post for the week goes up after Sunday’s game (second part released Tuesday, sometimes a third part Wednesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or eight games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after the 6-10 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez. A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.