What Astros missed opportunities, medical blunders really mean for Houston's foreseeable future
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The Astros need to take a hard look at their return to play policy. Composite Getty Image.
For years, the Astros built their dynasty on precision — smart bets, savvy scouting, and a steady refusal to let emotion cloud judgment. But as the 2025 season rolls into June, that precision feels dulled. Houston still wears the polish of a perennial contender, but underneath, the gears are grinding. A thin lineup, a faltering rotation, and a public misfire in player health management have created a team still standing, but no longer towering.
Houston still has a great chance to win the AL West, thanks more to the division’s mediocrity than its own dominance. But the warning lights are flashing.
Identifying the weak link
The biggest concern right now? It’s hard to choose just one.
The Astros’ offense has been startlingly average — 14th in OPS, 18th in runs scored. When this team had Springer, Correa, Bregman, and peak Altuve, scoring was a given. Now, it’s a grind. Too much depends on too few — and when a key piece like Isaac Paredes slumps, as he has recently, the whole offense stutters.
But the lineup isn’t alone in its inconsistency. The back half of the rotation has become a weak point due to a rash of injuries. With Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown pulling their weight at the top, the drop-off behind them is stark. Houston used to bury teams with pitching depth; now it’s just hoping for enough quality starts to make their elite bullpen matter.
The Yordan situation
And then there’s Yordan Alvarez and his fractured hand.
The slugger’s delayed return raised eyebrows. The lack of clarity around his status raised more. It's hard not to boil this down to outright incompetence.
If this were a one-off, it might be brushed aside. But it’s not. It’s another example of a once-cutting-edge organization starting to look clumsy at the margins.
Wasting prime Framber?
All of this would feel less urgent if Houston were building toward something. The team’s decision to trade Kyle Tucker this past offseason spoke volumes. It wasn’t just about resetting the CBT. It was a pivot, a signal that the franchise was playing the long game. And with Framber likely on his way out after this season, the choice to pass on going all-in this year becomes even more glaring.
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Slowly but surely, the stars of Houston's 2017 World Series-winning team have scattered about in the years since.
George Springer is in Toronto now, Alex Bregman in Boston and Carlos Correa in Minnesota. Justin Verlander pitches for San Francisco. Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr. are still with the Astros, but it feels like it's only a matter of time before Houston's dominance of the AL West comes to an end.
The question is whether anyone else in the division has what it takes to force a changing of the guard.
If it weren't for Oakland's division title in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Houston would have a streak of seven straight AL West championships. Only the Braves, Dodgers and Yankees have had runs that long since divisional play began. But last year, the Astros won just 88 games, their fewest in a full season since 2016. Only the mediocrity of the rest of the division kept them on top.
This year, Houston is 32-27, which puts the Astros on pace to win 88 games again. Nonetheless, they trail first-place Seattle by just a half-game.
The challengers all have their problems. The Athletics had an encouraging start but have lost 17 of their last 18. The Los Angeles Angels look headed to a 10th straight losing season. Texas won it all as a wild card two years ago but has been one of the worst offensive teams in baseball in 2025.
That leaves Seattle. The Mariners have the major league home run leader in Cal Raleigh — yes, he's ahead of both Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge with 23. Seattle also has Luis Castillo leading the pitching staff, but its team ERA is pretty middling at 3.86. Logan Gilbert missed all of May with an elbow issue.
The Mariners haven't won a division title since 2001. It's there for the taking right now, but are they up to the task?
Trivia time
There are six current major league franchises that have never won back-to-back division titles. Who are they?
Agony of defeat
Boston was swept three straight at Milwaukee, with the last two losses coming in walk-off fashion. Christian Yelich hit a 10th-inning grand slam to beat the Red Sox on Tuesday night, and the following day Caleb Durbin ended it with a sacrifice fly.
Boston has lost a major league-high seven games in walk-off fashion — and those games account for over a fifth of their 32 defeats.
Line of the week
Junior Caminero went 4 for 5 with two homers, two doubles, five RBIs and four runs in Tampa Bay's 16-3 rout of Houston on Saturday. Even after a loss Sunday, the Rays have won nine of their last 12 and are just a half-game behind Minnesota for the American League's final wild card.
Comeback of the week
Minnesota trailed Seattle 6-3 with two outs in the top of the ninth Friday night when Willi Castro hit a two-run homer off closer Andrés Muñoz. Then Byron Buxton singled, stole second and scored on a single by Trevor Larnach.
In the top of the 10th, the Twins scored six runs on their way to a 12-6 victory. Seattle had a win probability of 98.9% in the ninth, according to Baseball Savant.
Muñoz had not allowed an earned run all season. He blew another save against Minnesota on Sunday but ultimately got the win.
Trivia answer
The Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies have never won ANY division titles. The other four teams that have never gone back-to-back are:
— San Francisco Giants (NL West titles in 1971, 1987, 1989, 1997, 2000, 2003, 2010, 2012 and 2021)
— New York Mets (NL East titles in 1969, 1973, 1986, 1988, 2006 and 2015)
— Chicago White Sox (AL West titles in 1983 and 1993, AL Central titles in 2000, 2005, 2008 and 2021)
— Seattle Mariners (AL West titles in 1995, 1997 and 2001)
