ASTROS ARE ROLLING
Cream of the crop: some common threads tying Astros to Yankees, Mets in 2022
Jun 6, 2022, 4:01 pm
Yordan Alvarez has been a difference-maker for Houston. Composite image by Jack Brame.
yordan-hi5 (1)
After starting the year 11-11 and finding themselves 3.5 games behind the Angels in the AL West division race, the Astros have since distanced themselves from the rest of their division rivals by rattling off a 24-8 record in their last 32 games. That has them ahead of Los Angeles by 8.5 and sporting MLB's third-best record at 35-19.
The two teams with better records currently? That would be the Yankees (39-15) and the Mets (37-19), whom the Astros will face nine times in a ten-game stretch later this month. While we'll have to wait and see if they remain three of the top teams in terms of record when those games come around, there's no denying that those will be some playoff-caliber matchups.
Yordan keeps mashing after payday
Yordan is just pummeling the baseball.
(MLBStats x @GoogleCloud) pic.twitter.com/hXFN6EtbsA
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) June 5, 2022
The Astros, Yankees, and Mets also share something else in common, they each have a slugger in the top four in home runs in the MLB. Aaron Judge leads the way with 21, while Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso are in a three-way tie for second with 16, along with Mookie Betts of the Dodgers.
Alvarez leads the Astros in many offensive categories at the moment, not just homers. With his three-hit game in Sunday's finale win over the Royals in Kansas City, he improved his average to a team-best .295 to go along with the club-best 34 RBI, .391 on-base percentage, and .624 slugging percentage, giving him a top-5 OPS in the league at 1.015.
The performance he's having may land him his first All-Star game appearance and gave the Astros the confidence to lock him up with the recent six-year, $115 million contract extension. If he can continue to provide offense at this level, it will be money well spent for Houston as they try to keep their lineup capable of overpowering any team in the league, even in the playoffs.
Not everything is going well at the plate
Speaking of that lineup, during the offseason, you probably could have predicted that Alvarez would be thriving, but I doubt many would have foreseen some of the struggles Houston is having at the plate. After winning the batting title last year, Yuli Gurriel is struggling to regain his dominance at the plate, hitting just .225 with three homers and 15 RBI on the year.
Despite their saving grace, which has been timely homers, a low strikeout rate, and working walks, they find themselves in the league's bottom half in almost every other key offensive category. One of those includes their average with runners in scoring position, where they currently hover around 20th, something that will need to improve to give them their best shot at another World Series appearance.
Even with a few rough games, Verlander and Houston's pitching continues to deal
This year though, while the lineup has undoubtedly had big games and produced enough to win games, it has continued to be Houston's rotation and pitching staff that have been a pleasant surprise. While a few starters have been roughed up here or there, they still sit second in the league in quality starts at 25, trailing just the Padres with 31.
Until his last two starts, where he allowed six and three earned runs respectively to balloon his ERA up to a still excellent 2.23, Justin Verlander's comeback season was off to a tremendous start. Despite the road bumps, he's still in the top ten in the league in that category, while sitting on top of the chart in WHIP with a terrific 0.80. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he could make his return from Tommy John surgery with a Cy Young campaign in 2022.
Another spectacular outing from Justin Verlander as he took a no-hitter into the 7th, here's what he had to say about the game. #LevelUp pic.twitter.com/NrfiWRE5Kt
— AT&T SportsNet™ | SW (@ATTSportsNetSW) June 1, 2022
Although watching his return has been an obvious highlight, Houston has benefited from having two ace-caliber starters as Framber Valdez has also been doing great on the mound this season. The most evident example of that was in his first complete game in a two-hit, one-run win over the A's in Oakland. Which he followed up with his ninth quality start on Sunday en route to his fifth-straight win, improving him to 6-2, matching Verlander. While Jake Odorizzi and Lance McCullers Jr. navigate their injuries for their returns to the mound, and while Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia try to fill up the back half, the top of the Astros' rotation is in great hands.
So, when the Astros hit that stretch starting on June 21st, where they go back-and-forth between the Mets and Yankees, it will be a great test of what this team can accomplish when their pitchers meet tough offenses and their lineup digs in the box against stingy pitching.
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.