ASTROS ARE ROLLING

Cream of the crop: some common threads tying Astros to Yankees, Mets in 2022

Astros Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez has been a difference-maker for Houston. Composite image by Jack Brame.
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After starting the year 11-11 and finding themselves 3.5 games behind the Angels in the AL West division race, the Astros have since distanced themselves from the rest of their division rivals by rattling off a 24-8 record in their last 32 games. That has them ahead of Los Angeles by 8.5 and sporting MLB's third-best record at 35-19.

The two teams with better records currently? That would be the Yankees (39-15) and the Mets (37-19), whom the Astros will face nine times in a ten-game stretch later this month. While we'll have to wait and see if they remain three of the top teams in terms of record when those games come around, there's no denying that those will be some playoff-caliber matchups.

Yordan keeps mashing after payday

The Astros, Yankees, and Mets also share something else in common, they each have a slugger in the top four in home runs in the MLB. Aaron Judge leads the way with 21, while Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso are in a three-way tie for second with 16, along with Mookie Betts of the Dodgers.

Alvarez leads the Astros in many offensive categories at the moment, not just homers. With his three-hit game in Sunday's finale win over the Royals in Kansas City, he improved his average to a team-best .295 to go along with the club-best 34 RBI, .391 on-base percentage, and .624 slugging percentage, giving him a top-5 OPS in the league at 1.015.

The performance he's having may land him his first All-Star game appearance and gave the Astros the confidence to lock him up with the recent six-year, $115 million contract extension. If he can continue to provide offense at this level, it will be money well spent for Houston as they try to keep their lineup capable of overpowering any team in the league, even in the playoffs.

Not everything is going well at the plate

Speaking of that lineup, during the offseason, you probably could have predicted that Alvarez would be thriving, but I doubt many would have foreseen some of the struggles Houston is having at the plate. After winning the batting title last year, Yuli Gurriel is struggling to regain his dominance at the plate, hitting just .225 with three homers and 15 RBI on the year.

Despite their saving grace, which has been timely homers, a low strikeout rate, and working walks, they find themselves in the league's bottom half in almost every other key offensive category. One of those includes their average with runners in scoring position, where they currently hover around 20th, something that will need to improve to give them their best shot at another World Series appearance.

Even with a few rough games, Verlander and Houston's pitching continues to deal

This year though, while the lineup has undoubtedly had big games and produced enough to win games, it has continued to be Houston's rotation and pitching staff that have been a pleasant surprise. While a few starters have been roughed up here or there, they still sit second in the league in quality starts at 25, trailing just the Padres with 31.

Until his last two starts, where he allowed six and three earned runs respectively to balloon his ERA up to a still excellent 2.23, Justin Verlander's comeback season was off to a tremendous start. Despite the road bumps, he's still in the top ten in the league in that category, while sitting on top of the chart in WHIP with a terrific 0.80. It's not out of the realm of possibility that he could make his return from Tommy John surgery with a Cy Young campaign in 2022.

Although watching his return has been an obvious highlight, Houston has benefited from having two ace-caliber starters as Framber Valdez has also been doing great on the mound this season. The most evident example of that was in his first complete game in a two-hit, one-run win over the A's in Oakland. Which he followed up with his ninth quality start on Sunday en route to his fifth-straight win, improving him to 6-2, matching Verlander. While Jake Odorizzi and Lance McCullers Jr. navigate their injuries for their returns to the mound, and while Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier, and Luis Garcia try to fill up the back half, the top of the Astros' rotation is in great hands.

So, when the Astros hit that stretch starting on June 21st, where they go back-and-forth between the Mets and Yankees, it will be a great test of what this team can accomplish when their pitchers meet tough offenses and their lineup digs in the box against stingy pitching.

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Gerrit Cole and Hunter Brown share the same agent now. Composite Getty Image.

There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.

Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.

The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.

But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.

The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.

Astros pitcher hires a new agent

Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.

But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.

With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.

However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.

Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).

Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.

I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.

There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?

Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.

If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.

One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.

Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.

It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.

The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.

Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?

After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.

And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.

So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.

Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.

Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!

*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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