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3 compelling factors that could make all the difference for Astros in Game 2
Oct 12, 2022, 3:38 pm
Yordan Alvarez was the difference in Game 1.Photo by Christopher Pasatieri/Getty Images
JJ - Yordan DH
The Astros sure know how to keep you on your toes! They pulled off an improbable comeback beating the Mariners 8-7 thanks to a walk-off homer by Yordan Alvarez. Down 7-5, bottom of the ninth inning with Christian Vazquez, Mauricio Dubon, and Jose Altuve due up. Vazquez grounded out to short, David Hensley pinch hit for Dubon and got on with a hit-by-pitch. Jake Meyers pinch ran for Hensley. Altuve struck out swinging. That is where I got nervous. Sure, he's had a rough go of it, but Altuve is still a professional hitter. Clutch situations are his thing. From there, it got really good. Especially considering the future of this franchise.
Jeremy Peña came up with two outs and singled to center moving Meyers over to second base. That set the stage for Alvarez's massive 438-foot homer to send fans home happy! This was the first time in 49 tries that the Astros have come back after trailing in the eighth inning or later by multiple runs. It was also the first walk-off homer in postseason history with a team trailing by multiple runs. With those significant firsts, it's still only the second walk-off homer with a team down to its final out. The other was pretty significant as well: Kirk Gibson's game one walk-off in the 1988 World Series.
While it's awesome to see all this happen, it wouldn't have been necessary if Justin Verlander pitched better, or if the bats woke up earlier. I remember when "fans" were saying they were nervous about this Mariners team. Mariners honks made shirts saying they're a problem, mocking the infamous statement associated with Houston. Well guess what? SUCK IT! That team needs to know its role and shut their mouths! Astros OWN the AL West and rent is past due!
3 factors to watch for in Game 2
1) In game two of this series, the Mariners will send Luis Castillo to the mound. He had an 8-6 record with a 2.99 ERA this season. On away games, he's 4-5 with a 3.29 ERA. He has the pleasure of trying to match up against Framber Valdez. He with a 17-6 record and 2.82 ERA. One could argue Framber should be in the Cy Young discussion this season over game one starter Justin Verlander. I mean, he set a record (25) for most consecutive quality starts (six or more innings, allowing three or less runs) this year. So there's that.
2) Keep in mind: that comeback was no accident. The Mariners' bullpen throws sliders 44% of the time. That's the highest rate in MLB. If Framber can deliver another quality start or something close to it, the bats should get to Castillo. If not, they can attack that bullpen again. I fully expect Astros' manager Dusty Baker to continue pulling all the right strings in game two. He led this team to 106 wins this season, despite many calls for his head.
3) Another thing to look at is the Mariners' record against the Astros this season. At a paltry 7-12 with a run differential of -8, I don't think there's much to be scared of. Do they play the Astros tough? They sure do. Should Astro fans be worried? Absolutely not. When your team is more talented and your manager makes all the right moves, there's not much to be worried about. Highly doubt they pitch to Yordan again in a high leverage situation. That's fine because someone else will step up. Astros in three.
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How Astros advanced metrics tell puzzling story about Houston's start
Apr 17, 2025, 5:21 pm
Major League Baseball’s regular season is 162 games long. You can think of 18 games as the first inning of the season, 18 times nine equaling 162. While the Astros 8-10 record is not good, it’s far from disastrous. Think of it as them being behind 1-0 after the first inning. It is pretty remarkable that they have yet to win consecutive games. Even during last year’s 7-19 stink bomb of a start the Astros twice managed to win two in a row.
The Astros’ offensive woes are plentiful. Oddly enough as impotent as they’ve been, the Astros have yet to be shutout. But in half their games they have scored exactly one or two runs. Basically, most of them stink thus far. Exemptions go to Jose Altuve and Isaac Paredes, but it’s not like either of them has been outstanding. It’s still early enough that one big series can dramatically alter the numbers, but the Astros badly need Yordan Alvarez to pick up his production. Yordan enters the weekend batting just .224 with a .695 OPS and just four extra base hits. Yainer rhymes with minor. As in minor leagues, where Diaz belongs at his current level of performance. That is not saying Diaz should be sent down, just that any random AAA catcher called up couldn’t have done much worse to this point. Diaz isn’t hitting Altuve’s weight, a woeful .130 with seven hits in 57 at bats. Diaz simply remains too undisciplined at the plate swinging at too many balls. He’s drawn three walks. And now to Christian Walker, who thus far has delivered return on investment for his three year 60 million dollar contract about as strong as the stock market’s performance in Tariff Time. Walker’s .154 batting average and .482 OPS are very Astro Jose Abreu-like. Walker’s23 strikeouts in 65 at bats jump off the page. He has often looked befuddled in the batter's box. Walker is definitely pressing and frustrated, wanting to perform better for his new team. Jeremy Pena goes into the weekend batting .215 and has one hit in 13 at bats with runners in scoring position. Brendan Rodgers, Jake Meyers, and Chas McCormick all have weak stat lines, with little reason to expect quality offensive output from any of them. Cam Smith is at .200 with a yucky .591 OPS but he’s obviously a young stud work in progress thrown into the deep end of the pool.
All batting orders are top-heavy, the Astros’ on paper more so than many. As I set forth on one of our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts this week, the first inning should be a team’s best offensive inning. It’s the only frame in which a team gets to dictate who comes up from the start with the batters lined up just as the manager slots them. Add to that, the first inning is a good time to get to a starting pitcher before he settles in. The Astros have scored a pitiful three first inning runs in 18 games, and in two of the games they pushed one across in the first, it turned out to be the only Astro run of the game. Improvement needs to come internally from the big league roster. It’s not as if the Astros have a meaningful prospect at AAA Sugar Land who looks ready to help. Entering play Thursday the Space Cowboys’ team average was .186. Second base hopeful Brice Matthews is nowhere close, batting .180 and striking out left and right. Outfielder Jacob Melton opened three for 17 following the back injury-delayed start to his season.
As exasperating and boring as the offense has been for so many, grading needs to occur on a curve. So, while the Astros’ team batting average is a joke at .216, know that at close of business Wednesday the entire American League was batting just .232. The American League West-leading Texas Rangers scored eight fewer runs over their first 18 games than did the Astros, though that is skewed by the Astros’ one 14-run outburst against the Angels.
Familiar faces return
This weekend the Astros play host to the San Diego Padres at Daikin Park. The Friars are off to a fabulous start at 15-4. The Padres being here creates a mini reunion as both Martin Maldonado and Yuli Gurriel are on their roster. In a telling fact, Maldonado would have the third-highest batting average on the Astros if on the team with his current numbers. Maldonado is hitting .250 with seven hits in 28 at bats. The last season he finished above .200 was 2020. The only season in his career Maldonado topped .234 was his rookie season with a .266 mark in 2012.
Gurriel was last good in 2021 when he won the American League batting title at .319. He fell off a cliff from there, though perked up to have a fine postseason in the Astros’ 2022 run to World Series title number two. “La Pina” is batting .115 with just three hits in 26 at bats. Gurriel may be released soon, and approaching his 41st birthday June 9, that would probably be the end of the line. Short-timer Astro Jason Heyward is also on the Padres, and batting .190.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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