STACKING HARDWARE
Here are the top Astros candidates poised to make a run at MVP in 2023
Jan 9, 2023, 10:26 am
STACKING HARDWARE
Houston Astros power hitter Yordan Álvarez had a strong 2022 season that was capped off by a postseason run that included highlight reel plays that will live in the minds of fans for decades to come.
The 25-year-old slashed .306/.406/.613 along with 37 home runs and 97 runs batted in throughout the regular season, which were by far his strongest and most complete numbers throughout his young career. The Cuban native played in 135 games, making it back-to-back years when he has played in 130 or more games.
Heading into the 2023 season, there is one player on the Astros roster that stands above the rest when it comes to potentially winning the Most Valuable Player award in the American League, and that is none other than Álvarez.
Álvarez’ numbers were comparable to the 2022 AL MVP winner — Aaron Judge. The New York Yankees outfielder slashed .311/.425/.686 and hit 62 bombs and 131 RBI last season. Of course, Judge’s power numbers and runs scored tower over those put up by Álvarez, but Judge also played in 22 more games.
Los Angeles Angels star Shohei Ohtani, who was another player right in the mix for the 2022 AL MVP, slashed .273/.356/.519 and put up 34 home runs and 95 RBI for his team last season. Coincidentally, he also played in 22 more games than Álvarez. Ohtani also started in 28 games as a pitcher for the Angels.
When looking at the numbers, it is clear that Álvarez is in the same ballpark as the two front-runners in this season’s race. He certainly has the talent.
While Álvarez will not be stepping on the mound for the Astros anytime soon, Judge showed despite Ohtani’s versatility, he doesn’t necessarily have the award locked down. The biggest question mark could be Álvarez’ availability when it comes to locking down an MVP award.
Álvarez was on pace to hit 43 home runs with 112 RBI had he played in 157 games, just like Judge and Ohtani. In any given year, with similar slashes that he posted in 2022, those numbers will insert Álvarez right in the middle of an MVP race.
As it is every season, there will be other candidates that enter the race for AL MVP, and some could also even be on the Astros roster. Other considerations for Houston begin with second baseman José Altuve.
Altuve slashed .300/.387/.533 in 2022 and hit 28 home runs with 57 RBI, arguably his best season since his MVP year in 2017. Third baseman Alex Bregman also put together his strongest year since 2019 in 2022.
Not only did he play in 155 games for the Astros, but Bregman also slashed .259/.366/.454 with 23 home runs and 93 RBI. Bregman came close to winning the MVP in 2019, but fell short to Mike Trout.
Right fielder Kyle Tucker could also see his name thrown into the hat if he builds off his 2022 season. With 30 home runs, and a team-leading 107 RBI, the Tampa, Florida, native will be motivated to either secure a long-term contract or prove his worthiness of a recently acquired deal.
Jeremy Peña, while it may be a long shot, could be a viable option, especially after the strong postseason run he had in 2022 winning both ALCS and World Series MVP. Houston’s newest face, first baseman José Abreu, won the 2020 AL MVP. While Abreu’s numbers fell in 2022 from his career averages, being inserted into Houston’s lineup could ignite a new run that brings him back to the AL award.
Top to bottom, the Astros have multiple candidates that could realistically put together an MVP-worthy season. However, Álvarez leads the pack heading into 2023. He is currently the sixth favorite to win the award, according to Caesar’s Sportsbook at +1400. Bregman and Tucker are the next Astros on the list with +3500 odds.
One thing is for sure, with a lineup of Álvarez, Altuve, Peña, Bregman, Tucker and Abreu, the Astros will be one of the most high-powered offenses in 2023 again.
There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.
Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.
The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.
But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.
The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.
Astros pitcher hires a new agent
Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.
But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.
With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.
However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.
Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).
Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.
I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.
There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?
Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.
If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.
One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.
Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.
It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.
The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.
Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?
After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.
And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.
So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.
Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.
Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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