THE PALLILOG
How one Astros player specifically is playing at a blistering, unsustainable pace
May 11, 2023, 8:07 pm
Yordan Alvarez has been fantastic. Photo by Getty Images.
How Houston Astros fans cans score highly coveted playoff tickets
The Astros’ slog on mediocrity road has them in Chicago for the weekend with their record at 19 wins and 18 losses. No time like the present to switch roads. Losing two of three in Seattle then winning two of three in Anaheim means it’s a winning road trip if they can take at least two of three from the woeful White Sox.
The schedule is favorable the rest of May if the Astros are good enough to take advantage. After the White Sox it’s three at Minute Maid Park against the sub-.500 Cubs followed by three at home vs. the sub .250 Athletics who look like one of the worst teams of all-time. Then it’s back on the road for three at decent Milwaukee, three at those woebegone A’s, then back home to close the month against the middling Minnesota Twins (for whom Carlos Correa is batting below .200 and been booed by the home fans).
The Astros lineup continues to scuffle overall. They open play in the Windy City ranked eighth among the 15 American League teams in runs per game, but third worst in OPS. It’s not hard to explain with only two lineup regulars having good seasons at the plate to this point. Yordan Alvarez is Yordan Alvarez, meaning offensive superstar. Kyle Tucker has solid numbers, but nothing remotely elite. Tucker’s .789 OPS is lower than he’s finished with in any of his three seasons as an everyday player.
Jeremy Pena has been all right, he’s tied with Alvarez for the team lead with 15 extra base hits but has not made a leap from his rookie season. If Pena is to become a very good offensive player, he simply has to develop better plate discipline. Pena is up to 146 at bats with just six walks drawn. That paltry walks number is more troubling than his 38 strikeouts.
Jose Abreu still shows no signs of getting going. Abreu is still sitting on zero home runs, his OPS has sagged below Martin Maldonado’s. Alex Bregman is still batting just .207 with a weak .663 OPS. The season is six weeks old. Altuve’s return within maybe three weeks is a nearly absolute notable boost to the lineup. Brantley, we’ll see. It’s definitely troubling that after a week of minor league games Brantley’s surgically repaired shoulder is bothering him again, and he is at least temporarily shut down.
It’s not like the Astros have been buried by any means, certainly not in the AL West. Four games out in May is no big deal. However, it is time to start taking the Texas Rangers at least somewhat seriously. They are 22-14 heading into a four game weekend series against the garbage A’s. This shouldn’t hold up but the Rangers have been better than the Astros at every position but left field. The Rangers’ pitching has proving to do over the long haul, but the Astros’ pitching while still good overall is not nearly what it was last year. The Rangers’ farm system is also clearly better than the Astros’ system, so the Rangers are among the many teams that can make stronger offers than the Astros in pursuing upgrades.
Four and a half months of the season remain, but that the Astros are already nine and a half games behind the Tampa Bay Rays already does make the Astros repeating with the best record in the AL fairly unlikely.
Elite run production
Yordan Alvarez has played 31 of the Astros’ 37 games so far this season. In those 31 games he has 34 runs batted in. That is almost certainly an unsustainable pace, but neither of the guys most often ahead of Alvarez in the lineup this season have been good at getting on base. Mauricio Dubon’s .306 on base percentage is poor for a leadoff hitter, Alex Bregman’s sits at a meh .327. When Altuve gets in the lineup and if Brantley’s return ever actually happens, Yordan certainly should have more ducks on the pond to bring around than Dubon and Bregman have provided. Definitely unsustainable is Yordan’s absurd .520 batting average with runners in scoring position. With RISP Yordan is 13 for 25 with 29 of his 31 RBI.
The last player to average more than one RBI per game for a season? In 1999 Manny Ramirez knocked in 165 runs in 147 games played. The last player to knock in 150 in a season? Alex Rodriguez with 156 in 2007. The all-time record for RBI in a season has stood since 1930. Chicago Cubs center fielder Hack Wilson drove in 116 runs that year. In just his home games at Wrigley Field. Overall Wilson amassed a whopping 191 RBI. He also led the world with 56 home runs. Hack Wilson’s listed height was the same as Jose Altuve’s: five feet six inches. Wilson’s batting average in 1930 was .356, but that was nowhere close to what he needed to win the Triple Crown. The Giants’ Bill Terry hit .401, the last National Leaguer to hit .400. 1930 was a freak show offensive season. The batting average for the entire NL in 1930 was .303. The Giants led the league, batting .319 as a team.
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Expectations
The Texans are favored to win the AFC South for a third straight season with a team led by young stars quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. Stroud’s strong first two years helped the Texans turn things around and this year they’ll try to reach the playoffs in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history. Stroud will be directing a new offense led by first-time offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who took over after Bobby Slowik was fired this offseason following Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. General manager Nick Caserio also beefed up the team’s receiving corps, led by Nico Collins, by adding veteran Christian Kirk and drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. Coach DeMeco Ryans has vowed the offensive line will be better this season after Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, which was second-most in the league. But it’s difficult to see how his protection will be better after they traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and didn’t make any big moves to replace him. Defensively, Anderson should take another step forward in his second year playing with veteran Danielle Hunter after the third-overall pick in the 2023 draft had 17 sacks combined in his first two seasons. Cornerback Derek Stingley returns to lead a talented young secondary after earning first team AP All-Pro honors last season when he had five interceptions and defended 18 passes.
New faces
OC Nick Caley, WR Jayden Higgins, WR Christian Kirk, WR Jaylin Noel, LT Cam Robinson, RB Nick Chubb, RT Aireontae Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews.
Key losses
LT Laremy Tunsil, WR John Metchie III, G Kenyon Green, TE Brevin Jordan, CB Eric Murray, WR Robert Woods, CB Kris Boyd.
Strengths
Stroud and Houston’s stacked receiving group should be the stars of the team this season. The 2023 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has been great in his first two seasons to bring the Texans back into contention after an awful stretch. His interception rate was up last season but he’s looking for improvement this season in Caley’s offense, which he has described as “exciting.” He’ll have plenty of strong targets to throw to, led by Collins, who had a second straight 1,000-yard season last year despite missing five games with injuries. He’ll be joined by Kirk, who should fill in at the slot with Tank Dell likely to miss all season recovering from an injury he suffered in December. Higgins and Noel come to Houston after combining for 2,377 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns last season at Iowa State.
Weaknesses
It’s hard to see how the offensive line will be improved this season with Tunsil gone to Washington. Though he was penalty-prone, he was the team’s most consistent lineman. They completely revamped the line after his trade and return just one starter from last year’s group. They’ll likely rely on rookie Ersery to protect Stroud’s blind side after taking him in the second round of the draft. He started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota. Veteran Tytus Howard returns at right tackle after starting 16 games there last season. The center is Jake Andrews in his first year in Houston and he returns after missing all of last season with an injury before being released by the Patriots. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and right guard Ed Ingram are also new to the team.
Camp development
Houston’s secondary sustained a big blow in camp when safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered a leg injury. The injury isn’t season-ending but he is likely to miss significant time. Gardner-Johnson is in his first year in Houston after he was acquired from the Eagles in March in exchange for left guard Kenyon Green. He was expected to be the team’s starting free safety after the Texans lost Eric Murray in free agency to the Jaguars. The Texans will also be without backup Jimmie Ward indefinitely after he was placed on the commissioner exempt list Tuesday as he faces a felony domestic violence charge after a June arrest.
Fantasy player to watch
Collins should have another big year after finishing with more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. He’s had 15 touchdowns combined in the last two seasons despite missing seven games with injuries.
BetMGM Sportsbook
Win Super Bowl: 35-1.