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How the Rockets draft just hits different for Houston sports fans
Jun 22, 2023, 4:17 pm
The Rockets have the 4th pick in the NBA Draft. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
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When the NFL Draft came around last April, Houston was lit up with Texans talk: who will we take with the No. 2 pick and, surprise surprise, the No. 3 pick?
Texans fans were elated, actually more relieved, when Houston selected quarterback C.J. Stroud from Ohio State and delighted when they landed edge rusher Will Anderson from Alabama.
Interest ran high because football fans in Houston were familiar with the league’s top choices. We had seen No. 1 pick Bryce Young, the one who got away, play nearly every week for two years at Alabama. We watched Stroud’s heroic effort in the college semifinal game against Georgia. We knew all about Anderson’s ability to wreck an offense at Alabama.
The first round of the NFL draft involves superstar college players from major conferences whose games are on TV every Saturday. We know these players and we want them on our team.
The NBA Draft is different. Tonight league commissioner Adam Silver will call out names that fans, while they may recognize them from pre-draft publicity and predictions, may never have seen in action on TV or in person.
With the NFL, fans can make up their own draft boards based on what they’ve seen personally. With the NBA, fans have to rely on NBA scouts, executives, and analysts.
You know these scouts, executives and analysts, they’re the same geniuses who in recent years, after spending millions on research, recommended taking the following “guaranteed superstars” with the No. 1 overall pick: Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons, Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden, Andrea Barnani, and Kwame Brown. Major flops all.
The Rockets are rumored to be pursuing free agent Fred VanVleet to lend proven veteran leadership to their young squad. VanVleet wasn’t even drafted in 2016. So there.
The bigger problems daunting fans’ interest in the NBA Draft in recent years are the emergence of international players and the developmental G League. Most fans do not watch G League games and can’t watch international leagues.
If the NBA is a star-driven league, it’s a fair argument that international ball has produced as many megastar talents as U.S. colleges. The last five Most Valuable Players were either born outside the U.S. or played on international teams before joining the NBA: Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic (twice) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (twice).
Four of the five 2023 All-NBA First Team members were born outside the U.S.: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Now for tonight’s draft:
Victor Wembanyama is the most talked-about, can’t-miss, sure-fire No. 1 pick since Zion Williamson in 2019. Wembanyama, we’re told, will change the way NBA basketball is played. He instantly makes the Spurs must-see TV. He’s 7 ft. 4 and can shoot threes, run the floor and block shots.
That’s a big “we’re told.” Like most NBA followers, I have never seen Wembanyama play a complete game. He played for the Metropolitans 92 team in the LNB Pro A tier of the French basketball league. Big fan?
All most NBA followers have seen of Wembanyama are highlights from France. Yes, he looks dominant and unstoppable. He’s also playing against opponents who would not make an NBA team.
He also looks skinny and young, which he is. Wembanyama is 19 years old. Williamson was only 18 when he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2019. With all the talent in the world, Williamson has been a major disappointment due mainly to injuries and, some accuse a hearty appetite and lack of professionalism. Williamson doesn’t look skinny. He’s missed about 65-percent of Pelicans games since he entered the NBA. With a long-term contract worth about $200 million, Williamson is an overpaid, overweight, part-time member of the Pelicans active roster. When Charles Barkley calls you fat, it’s time to give Jenny Craig a call.
The NBA Draft will start at 7 p.m. on ABC and ESPN with the San Antonio Spurs on the board. At 7 p.m. and one nanosecond. Charlotte comes next and is projected to take either Scoot Henderson of the G League Ignite or Brandon Miller from Alabama. Portland will pick third.
Then it’s Houston’s turn. Most experts have the Rockets selecting Amen Thompson from Overtime Elite. We can only hope that the Rockets war room has done its due diligence on Thompson and he becomes a productive player for Houston. Most fans have never seen Thompson play. Would you recognize Amen Thompson in a supermarket? Did you know what position he played before his name popped up on the Rockets wish list? (He’s a 6 ft. 7 guard reportedly with a high basketball IQ.)
But there is reason to get excited. The last three years have presented Houston a No. 2 (Jalen Green), No. 3 (Jabari Smith Jr.) and No. 4 (tonight), along with No. 17 in 2022 (Tari Eason). The Rockets also have the No. 20 pick tonight.
That’s one way, probably the best way, to build a successful team, to draft wisely. And that’s where hope enters the game.
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Pharrell Williams is ringing in my ears. Why? Because I’m happy of course (2013 music reference)! Less than one week to spring training opening for the Astros in West Palm Beach. The pitchers and catchers are required to report a few days before the rest. A number of guys among the rest will arrive early, but let’s focus on some pitcher/catcher issues. Catchers first.
We know Yainer Diaz is the primary starter, with Victor Caratini a solid complement in the final year of his two-year contract. Diaz had a fine season overall in his first as the primary backstop, but he has a couple of clear areas that need improvement if stardom is to be on his horizon. His pitch-framing metrics were poor. Maybe it’s as simple as more experience under the belt improving them. At the plate, Yainer brings major value for what he does when doing it as a catcher. Still, to be a bonafide great offensive catcher, Diaz needs to rediscover more of the home run power he displayed as a rookie. In 2023 Diaz smashed 23 home runs in 355 at bats. In 2024 he had 230 more at bats, and hit seven fewer home runs. He had a 30-game midseason homer drought (immediately after going deep in four consecutive games), and then went the final 31 games of the season (29 plus the two playoff losses) without clearing a fence. Diaz did bat .309 over those 61 games so it’s not as if he turned into Martin Maldonado, but you want more sock from a guy batting fourth or fifth in the lineup. Diaz’s slugging percentage tumbled from .531 to .448. Among catchers overall, 16 homers and the .766 OPS he posted in 2024 is fine, but that is not a great offensive player overall. The other area where Yainer needs a step up is plate discipline. With his 585 at bats last year he walked only a pitiful 24 times. As a result, despite his excellent .299 batting average Diaz’s on-base percentage was just .325. Jon Singleton posted a .321 OBP while batting .234.
Caratini is a solid pro whose switch-hitting adds flexibility. He was sensational as a pinch-hitter albeit in just 19 at bats (8-19, .421). Manager Joe Espada has some playing time juggling to do. Free agent signee Christian Walker will play almost every day at first base when healthy. Diaz or Caratini getting starts there will be very limited. Yordan Alvarez targeted for fewer starts in left field gobbles up more designated hitter games. However Jose Altuve winds up splitting his defensive time between second base and left field, closing in on his 35th birthday in May, using him at DH about once per week would make sense.
On the mound, barring injury the starting rotation is set. Off of their 2024 performances Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Ronel Blanco are as solid a one-two-three punch as there is in the American League. Only unanimously-voted American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal posted a better qualifying earned run average (2.39) than Blanco’s 2.80 and Valdez’s 2.91. After tweaking his arsenal following an atrocious opening seven-start stretch to his season, Brown posted a 2.46 ERA the rest of the way. Framber may have a couple hundred million dollars riding on his 2025 performance as barring an extension he heads toward free agency. Will Brown and Blanco’s performance hold up after each set professional career highs in innings pitched? The fourth rotation spot initially goes to Spencer Arrighetti, who showed much promise pitching to a 3.18 ERA after the All-Star break. Kyle Tucker trade acquisition Hayden Wesneski has first dibs on the fifth spot. The Cy-Fair high school grad and Sam Houston State product flashes some solid stuff, but absolutely must do a better job keeping his pitches in the ballpark. In 190 big league innings pitched Wesneski has been hammered for 35 home runs. In 2024 he showed so improvement in that area yielding 12 dingers in 67 2/3 innings.
The two sure things so far as bullpen roles are concerned are Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu. Hader’s seasons in one word from 2020-2024: Meh, stupendous, atrocious, phenomenal, mediocre. The odd years have been the fabulous ones. Abreu moves up the totem pole with the salary dump (eight and a half of 14 million anyway) trade of Ryan Pressly. After Hader and Abreu most tickets are punched. Tayler Scott, Kaleb Ort, Forrest Whitley, and Bryan King all figure to have spots. The 32-year-old Scott faded over the last two months after having blown away anything he’d done previously in MLB. The 33-year-old Ort also way outpitched his prior big league resume. Former mega-prospect Whitley is out of minor league options, and opportunity knocks. King appears the only definitely makes the club lefty reliever.
Spring training doors open next week. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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