NO SURE THING?
Here's why even a Rockets "Dream" scenario doesn't guarantee a thing
May 5, 2022, 5:42 pm
NO SURE THING?
Have you seen this show on NBA TV, What If? It's an old series that, like history, keeps repeating itself. Each episode poses a hypothetical question and former and current NBA players and so-called experts speculate what would have happened … if only.
Last night’s episode asked, how many NBA titles would your Houston Rockets have won if they had accepted the Portland Trail Blazers alleged trade offer in 1984 of the No. 2 draft pick and Clyde Drexler for Ralph Sampson?
That was the year that the Rockets already had the No. 1 pick and took Hakeem Olajuwon. Portland, holding onto No. 2 selected Sam Bowie, which turned out to be one of the biggest blunders in NBA Draft history. Of course the Chicago Bulls snared some guy named Michael Jordan with the next pick and the rest was history - for the rest of the league.
The Rockets supposedly turned down Portland’s offer because management had heightened expectations of teaming Olajuwon and Sampson as the “Twin Towers.”
If the Rockets had taken up Portland on the trade, it would have meant The Dream, Air Jordan and The Glide on the same team for the next 10-15 years. How many titles would the Rockets have won? All sorts of crazy numbers were tossed around, up to 10 championships.
Please stop.
Nobody is worse at predicting the NBA than the NBA.
The favorites to win the East this year? The Brooklyn Nets with Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving colluding to wreck the league. Who was going to beat a team boasting perhaps three of the Top 10 players in the whole league? As it turned out, the Nets had an often-injured but undeniable superstar, a petulant spoiled brat with a wandering eye, and an anti-vax oddball who played a cameo role this season by choice. The Nets barely made the playoffs and were promptly dispatched in a 4-0 sweep by the Boston Celtics.
The favorites to win the West this year? The Los Angeles Lakers with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook who also dictated where they’d play. It turned out the Lakers’ Big 3 was a Magnificent 1 (LeBron), with Davis getting nicknamed “Street Clothes” and Westbrook labeled “Westbrick.” The Lakers didn’t even make the playoffs and the coach was fired before the final buzzer stopped buzzing. It was enough to make you feel sorry for LeBron James.
You don’t have to look past the NBA Draft to see how awful the NBA is at predicting its own future. This year’s favorite to win MVP is Philadelphia big man Joel Embiid. He was picked No.3 in the 2014 behind Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker. Wiggins is a nice third option with the Golden State Warriors. Parker is out of the league.
Last year’s MVP was Denver center Nikola Jokic. He was taken No. 41 in the second round of the 2014 draft.
Two-time MVP (2019 and 2020) Giannis Antetokounmpo was drafted No. 15 in 2013. The No. 1 pick that year was Anthony Bennett. He lasted only four years in the league, played for four different teams, and averaged only 4 points for his “career.” Then he was four-gotten.
What do the following players have in common: Zion Williamson, Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons, Andrew Wiggins, and Anthony Bennett?
Answer: they were No. 1 overall NBA Draft picks within the past 10 years. NBA teams who spend millions on scouting college and European players miss half the time on who’s the best available player in the draft. Half the time!
And it’s not “too soon” to hang bust on Zion. He's fat. And the New Orleans Pelicans marketing department isn’t using Zion in its sales pitch for next season. Meanwhile former No. 2 pick Ja Morant is dropping 47 against the Warriors this week.
Other topics debated on the NBA TV series ask what if the Minnesota Timberwolves had drafted Steph Curry in 2009 when they had two shots at the 3-point deadeye? By the way, two years later the Timberwolves passed on Klay Thompson, the other Splash Brother. Minnesota, do better.
Also, what if the Seattle SuperSonics had kept their No. 5 draft pick Scottie Pippen instead of immediately trading him to Chicago for Olden Polynice in 1987?
The answers to all these questions is … nobody knows. If they did, Nike would be selling billions of Air Bowie sneakers, there’d be 10 championship banners hanging in Toyota Center and the NBA would be drooling over a Nets-Lakers finals this year.When DeMeco Ryans became coach of the Houston Texans before last season, the two-time Pro Bowl linebacker brought his swarm defense with him.
It’s an identity the Texans have embraced as they prepare for their second straight trip to the divisional round of the playoffs Saturday where they’ll face the Kansas City Chiefs.
“You really can’t go out there if you’re not about it,” Ryans said.
And while every member of the defense has bought into Ryans’ aggressive style, there is one player who epitomizes it like no one else.
“Will every time,” cornerback Derek Stingley said of defensive end Will Anderson Jr.
Anderson, last year’s AP Defensive Rookie of the Year, has taken his game to another level this season and had 1½ sacks last week after piling up 11 in the regular season.
He described what playing swarm defense means to him.
“Do whatever it takes to get the ball, attacking the ball,” Anderson said. “We’ve got this saying in our D-line room; ‘who gonna pop it off?’ Whoever pops it off first, that’s swarming. Like who’s gonna make the big play? And I feel like there’s a lot of guys on defense that pop it off, who swarm.”
The Texans intercepted Justin Herbert a career-high four times, including one which was returned for a score, in last week’s win over the Chargers after he had been picked off just three times all season. Houston’s four takeaways in the first week of the playoffs are tied with Philadelphia for most in the NFL.
That performance came after Houston ranked fifth in the league in the regular season by forcing 29 turnovers.
Stingley, who had two of the interceptions last week a day after earning AP All-Pro honors, shared his mindset on the team’s defensive mentality.
“It really just comes down to if I was to tell you this is the last time you’re gonna do something, how you gonna do it,” Stingley said. “It’s simple as that. Just do that every single play.”
Ryans said there’s really no secret to why his team has such a knack for forcing turnovers. He believes it’s because he has good players, and they emphasize it in practice which translates to games.
“That’s our main thing that we go into every week is talking about attacking the football, taking the football,” Ryans said. “Because we know, when you take the football away, it just raises your percentages of winning the football games… it’s the defense helping the team win the game.”
While all of Houston’s takeaways last week came on interceptions, Stingley was quick to point out that those picks wouldn’t have happened if not for the pressure the defensive line put on Herbert. The Texans sacked him four times and hit him another nine in the 32-12 victory.
“The defense starts with them up front,” Stingley said. “They’re doing their job and it just makes it easier for us on the back end.”
Anderson said with each turnover, the defense got more and more amped up and was pushing each other to see who the next player would be to force one.
“That’s just that swarm mentality and we just feeding off each other,” Anderson said. “This person can’t do it by themselves so who is gonna be next and that just generates that contagious energy.”
The Texans were the fifth team since 1963 to have at least four sacks, four interceptions and an interception return for a touchdown in a playoff game last week. The past three teams to do it all went on to win the Super Bowl, with Tampa Bay doing so in the 2002 season, Baltimore in 2000 and San Francisco in 1989.
This Texans team would love to keep that going. But first they’ll need a win Saturday to put them in the AFC championship game for the first time after losing their previous five divisional matchups.
“That’s what you come here for,” Anderson said. “That’s what they’ve been rebuilding for is moments like this… we’ve got all the right pieces, we’ve just got to go out there and make it happen.”