FEAR THE BEARD
Here are the biggest payoffs to a Harden return for Houston Rockets
Jun 13, 2023, 2:42 pm
Will James Harden return to the Rockets? Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images.
With the NBA Draft only days away, and the Rockets seeming to be dangling the No. 4 pick in exchange for a reliable veteran, it’s time for the Rockets to either land James Harden or get off the pot.
While media voices say it’s not going to happen, and fan polls pleading for it not to happen, the Harden talk doesn’t die.
Last week, when asked what he thought about the Rockets possibly bringing back Harden, Kenyon Martin Sr. didn’t mince words. He said it’d be a horrible idea and would “stunt the growth” of young Rocket players, including his son, Kenyon Martin Jr., age 22.
Then Sr. added, “But I don’t sign the checks.”
That would be Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta. Four years ago, when Harden left the Rockets to chase a title in Brooklyn (how’d that work out?), Fertitta and Harden sounded like high school sweethearts going off to different colleges.
Both sides sighing, “I’ll wait for you.”
You know that usually works out, too.
Harden is a free agent, and there’s Fertitta, home waiting with open arms, if not an open checkbook.
Harden reportedly is seeking a max contract. Under NBA rules, the Rockets would be allowed to offer him a four-year deal, starting with $46.9 million for next season with 5-percent raises the next three years, topping out at $201.7 million.
Harden already has made $301 million over his 14-year career. He is the eighth highest-paid player in NBA history. No. 1 is LeBron James, who’s pulled down $401 million over his 20 years.
The Philadelphia 76ers, Harden’s team the past two seasons, can offer him a four-year contract that would start with $46.9 for next season, but with 8-percent raises the next three years, for a total of $210 million.
However, Pennsylvania has a 3-percent state income tax, while Texas doesn’t have a state tax. Bottom line, the 76ers’ offer really is only about $2 million more than a possible Rockets’ deal.
Here’s where it gets sticky. Harden probably wants four years, but does it make sense for the Rockets or 76ers or any team to bank that long on Harden? While still an effective player, he led the NBA in assists last season, Harden clearly is on the back end of his career. Would he return to his one-man-team, ball hog style of play with the Rockets? Would Rockets fans enjoy seeing a live production of Boban Marjanovic’s commercial for State Farm?
He’s bouncing the ball,
He’s bouncing the ball,
He’s bouncing the ball again,
He’s bouncing the ball again
He’s bouncing the ball.
Some NBA insiders think Harden is merely flirting with the Rockets to put the screws to the 76ers, so they’ll give him four years.
Harden will turn 34 years old in August. The rest of the Rockets’ core players are a decade or more younger: Jalen Green (21), Alperin Sengun (20), Jabari Smith Jr. (20), Kevin Porter Jr. (23). Would they continue to develop and fill their potential if they’re watching Gramps play bouncy ball before jocking up a 3-pointer?
Last week, Jabari Smith Jr. was asked on camera what he thought about a possible Harden return to the Rockets. He was all for it, saying it was time for Harden to “come back home. There is still so much love for him in Houston.”
I’ve seen more convincing hostage videos.
So, assuming both the 76ers and Rockets make an offer, Harden would have to choose between chasing a title in Philadelphia or the comforts of home in Houston without the pressure of a deep playoff run. Harden has never been on a championship team.
Harden does have high-end value for the Rockets. He won three scoring titles and an MVP during his eight-year run with the Rockets. The Rockets were a serial playoff team during his time in Houston. There’s no need to bring up Harden’s disappearing act during the playoffs, an act he reprised this year in Philadelphia.
The biggest payoff to bringing back Harden would be star power. As a friend told me this week, “At least I would recognize one of the Rockets then.” The Rockets would like to sell more tickets next season. Those half-a-house crowds rivaled the Houston Texans last year.
Fertitta appears determined to sign a marquee veteran. Chatter on the NBA gossip line has the Rockets kicking the tires on Kyrie Irving if Harden stays in Philly. Another rumor has the Rockets interested in Draymond Green or Dillon Brooks. They’re all disruptive characters with big personalities and big mouths. Is that what the Rockets need? Is that a smart play for the future?
Then again, Fetitta didn’t become the $8 Billion Man making bad investments.
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The phrase most associated with the late former Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland Raiders’ owner Al Davis was “Just win baby.” One has to think Al would strongly approve of the Houston Astros. Going to the fifth inning Sunday against the Mariners the Astros were facing a 3-0 deficit and staring at the prospect of being swept out of Seattle and having their American League West division lead slashed to just two games. Now after roaring from behind with 11 unanswered runs to take the series finale in the Emerald City, and then sweeping three games from the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, the Astros stand six games up with 60 games to go. So, if the Astros play just .500 ball the rest of the way (which would have them finish with 90 victories), the Mariners have to play .600 ball to catch them. If somehow the Astros are to maintain their season long win pace to the finish line they’d close with 95 wins, and the race is already over unless someone thinks the M’s are poised to uncork a finishing kick of 41-19 or better. It’s quite a pleasing perch from which the Astros survey the standings. Coupled with the freefalling Detroit Tigers having dropped nine of their last ten games, the Astros amazingly start this homestand sporting the best record in the entire American League. On the homestand they follow four games against the team with the second-worst record in the American League (Athletics) with three versus the team with the second-worst record in the National League (Nationals). I know, I know. There is fear of the Astros playing down to the competition, but that is not the way to look at it. A bad Major League team can beat a good team in a series at any time. If it happens it happens, but it wouldn’t mean it happened only because the Astros didn’t take their opponent seriously. This isn’t the NBA.
Trade deadline looming
Of course, It hasn’t been all good news with Isaac Paredes badly injuring a hamstring Sunday. Paredes could be back in three weeks (doubtful), he could miss the rest of the season. GET WELL SOON JEREMY PENA! Lance McCullers’s latest Injured List stint could be considered addition by subtraction for the Astros’ starting rotation. Whether impacted by his blister issue, Lance was lousy in four of his last five starts. So, one week from the trade deadline, if general manager Dana Brown has the ammo to get one deal done, where does he make the upgrade? The left-handed hitter everyone knows the Astros can use regardless of Yordan Alvarez’s status is a natural priority. With the Astros’ weak farm system it would seem difficult for Brown to put forth the winning offer for the top bats that could be in play. That probably rings even truer now, since if he wasn’t already untouchable, Brice Matthews may have cemented untouchable status by darn near winning the first two games of the Diamondbacks series by himself. Matthews is going to struggle mightily to hit for a good average if he can’t make notable improvement in the contact department, but the power is obvious, as is the athleticism in the field. The 23-year-old Matthews and 22-year-old Cam Smith (though presently mired in a three for 36 slump) are the clear (and right now only) two young shining beacons for the lineup’s future.
You can't have enough pitching
While Brandon Walter has been a revelation, a starting pitcher would make sense unless the decision is to hope Spencer Arrighetti and/or Cristian Javier can contribute meaningfully upon return to the big leagues, likely sometime next month. Going after a reliever or two may make more sense in terms of availability and transaction cost. Overall the Astros’ bullpen has been excellent, but Bryan Abreu is the only trustworthy right-handed option for Joe Espada. Back to Walter. Barely two months ago no way Walter himself would have believed he’d be where he is now. Nine starts since being summoned basically out of desperation, Walter has a 3.35 earned run average, and a stunning 13 to one strikeout-to-walk ratio with his 52 strikeouts against a measly four walks allowed in 53 2/3 innings. Walter has pitched fabulously in seven of his nine starts. He only has two wins, but that’s because in five of the six Walter starts the Astros didn’t win the game they failed to score more than two runs. Walter turns 29 years old in September. His only prior big league experience was 23 innings in relief with a 6.26 ERA for the Red Sox two years ago. The Bosox released him last August, the Astros signed him basically as minor league depth. Look at him (and the Astros) now.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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