FEAR THE BEARD
Here are the biggest payoffs to a Harden return for Houston Rockets
Jun 13, 2023, 2:42 pm
Will James Harden return to the Rockets? Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images.
With the NBA Draft only days away, and the Rockets seeming to be dangling the No. 4 pick in exchange for a reliable veteran, it’s time for the Rockets to either land James Harden or get off the pot.
While media voices say it’s not going to happen, and fan polls pleading for it not to happen, the Harden talk doesn’t die.
Last week, when asked what he thought about the Rockets possibly bringing back Harden, Kenyon Martin Sr. didn’t mince words. He said it’d be a horrible idea and would “stunt the growth” of young Rocket players, including his son, Kenyon Martin Jr., age 22.
Then Sr. added, “But I don’t sign the checks.”
That would be Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta. Four years ago, when Harden left the Rockets to chase a title in Brooklyn (how’d that work out?), Fertitta and Harden sounded like high school sweethearts going off to different colleges.
Both sides sighing, “I’ll wait for you.”
You know that usually works out, too.
Harden is a free agent, and there’s Fertitta, home waiting with open arms, if not an open checkbook.
Harden reportedly is seeking a max contract. Under NBA rules, the Rockets would be allowed to offer him a four-year deal, starting with $46.9 million for next season with 5-percent raises the next three years, topping out at $201.7 million.
Harden already has made $301 million over his 14-year career. He is the eighth highest-paid player in NBA history. No. 1 is LeBron James, who’s pulled down $401 million over his 20 years.
The Philadelphia 76ers, Harden’s team the past two seasons, can offer him a four-year contract that would start with $46.9 for next season, but with 8-percent raises the next three years, for a total of $210 million.
However, Pennsylvania has a 3-percent state income tax, while Texas doesn’t have a state tax. Bottom line, the 76ers’ offer really is only about $2 million more than a possible Rockets’ deal.
Here’s where it gets sticky. Harden probably wants four years, but does it make sense for the Rockets or 76ers or any team to bank that long on Harden? While still an effective player, he led the NBA in assists last season, Harden clearly is on the back end of his career. Would he return to his one-man-team, ball hog style of play with the Rockets? Would Rockets fans enjoy seeing a live production of Boban Marjanovic’s commercial for State Farm?
He’s bouncing the ball,
He’s bouncing the ball,
He’s bouncing the ball again,
He’s bouncing the ball again
He’s bouncing the ball.
Some NBA insiders think Harden is merely flirting with the Rockets to put the screws to the 76ers, so they’ll give him four years.
Harden will turn 34 years old in August. The rest of the Rockets’ core players are a decade or more younger: Jalen Green (21), Alperin Sengun (20), Jabari Smith Jr. (20), Kevin Porter Jr. (23). Would they continue to develop and fill their potential if they’re watching Gramps play bouncy ball before jocking up a 3-pointer?
Last week, Jabari Smith Jr. was asked on camera what he thought about a possible Harden return to the Rockets. He was all for it, saying it was time for Harden to “come back home. There is still so much love for him in Houston.”
I’ve seen more convincing hostage videos.
So, assuming both the 76ers and Rockets make an offer, Harden would have to choose between chasing a title in Philadelphia or the comforts of home in Houston without the pressure of a deep playoff run. Harden has never been on a championship team.
Harden does have high-end value for the Rockets. He won three scoring titles and an MVP during his eight-year run with the Rockets. The Rockets were a serial playoff team during his time in Houston. There’s no need to bring up Harden’s disappearing act during the playoffs, an act he reprised this year in Philadelphia.
The biggest payoff to bringing back Harden would be star power. As a friend told me this week, “At least I would recognize one of the Rockets then.” The Rockets would like to sell more tickets next season. Those half-a-house crowds rivaled the Houston Texans last year.
Fertitta appears determined to sign a marquee veteran. Chatter on the NBA gossip line has the Rockets kicking the tires on Kyrie Irving if Harden stays in Philly. Another rumor has the Rockets interested in Draymond Green or Dillon Brooks. They’re all disruptive characters with big personalities and big mouths. Is that what the Rockets need? Is that a smart play for the future?
Then again, Fetitta didn’t become the $8 Billion Man making bad investments.
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The Texans make just their third ever visit to Lambeau Field Sunday. It’s a dandy matchup as the Texans try to run their record to 6-1 at the expense of the 4-2 Green Bay Packers. The Texans have one win and one loss in Wisconsin. In 2008 the gameday high temperature was 13 degrees. Kris Brown kicked a 40 yard field goal as time expired to give the Texans a 24-21 win over a Packers team that struggled to a 6-10 record under first-year starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Texans posted their second consecutive 8-8 finish that year. In 2016 the mercury reached a balmy high of 34 degrees as the Texans fell 21-13 at Lambeau. Inexplicably, Rodgers somehow managed to win the quarterback matchup with Brock Osweiler. The Texans and Packers each won their division that year. Both Texans’ trips to “America’s Dairyland” occurred in December. No risk of frozen tundra this time around. The forecast for Green Bay Sunday calls for a high of 75 degrees! That’s almost 20 degrees warmer than normal there for October 20.
It’s a dynamic QB matchup with C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love sharing the field. Love broke out in a huge way in 2023 after serving a two-year apprenticeship under Rodgers. After a stumbling 3-6 start to their season the Packers went 6-2 the rest of the way to snag a playoff spot. They obliterated the Cowboys in a Wild Card game in Arlington (before everyone obliterated the Cowboys in Arlington...) then led at the 49ers with under 90 seconds to go before San Francisco scored to win 24-21. The Packers made crystal clear their belief in Love by signing him to a four-year 220 million dollar contract extension in July. That’s 55 mil per season. Stroud becomes extension-eligible after next season. Anyone think he won’t be in position to command at least 65 mil per season?
Stroud sure looks to be the guy to finally give the Texans the long-term stability and excellence they have never had at the most important position in the sport. The Pack is all in on Love continuing its unreal long-term QB stability and excellence. Love took the reins after Rodgers helmed the offense for 15 seasons. Rodgers took the reins after Brett Favre’s 16-year tenure. So if Love makes it for nine years as the starter, that’s three primary QBs in 40 years. Absolutely amazing.
After missing two games because of a sprained knee ligament suffered in the final seconds of the Packers’ season opening loss to the Eagles in Brazil, Love has thrown 10 touchdown passes in three games. But he has only completed 59 percent of his passes, and has thrown at least one interception per game.
The Texans’ first trip to the NFC North this season went brutally badly, the 34-7 beatdown from Minnesota. The Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 in week four of the season. That was Love’s first game back, he threw four touchdown passes and three picks. One defensive weapon the Texans will have against the Pack they did not have against the Vikes is Denico Autry. The 34-year-old Autry returns from his six-game banned substance suspension. That happens as one of the fill-ins for him, Mario Edwards, starts his own four-game substance abuse suspension. That should be a net improvement for the Texans.
X-factors
The single biggest variable in swinging the outcome of football games is turnovers. So far this season the Packers have been a takeaway machine. Last season the Packers generated just 18 turnovers over their 17 regular season games, only six teams took the ball away less often. Through just six games this season the Packers already have 17 takeaways. No other NFL team has more than 13, the Texans have just seven. The Packers have produced exactly three turnovers in five of their six games, and got two in the other. Every defense preaches turnovers, so it’s not as if first-year Green Bay defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has introduced radical concepts that are yielding magical results. But the results are what they are.
If the Texans take care of the ball, they have a terrific chance to win. Having Joe Mixon back aids the cause on two fronts. One, Mixon is obviously the Texans’ best running back. Two, Mixon last fumbled in 2021. The Texans probably best plan to score 25 or more points to win this one because the Packers figure to score a bit. In Love’s four starts the Pack has lit the scoreboard for 29, 29, 24, and 34 points. On the other hand, the Texans’ D has been pretty stout, allowing the third-fewest yards per game (Green Bay rates 18th). It’s a strength vs. strength battle. The Texans have allowed no opponent more than 313 yards in total offense. The Packers have amassed at least 378 yards in five of their six games, and managed 328 in their worst performance.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!