IT'S NOT OVER!
Here's how the Houston Rockets can still score big in the NBA Draft
May 17, 2023, 3:23 pm
IT'S NOT OVER!
The NBA Draft Lottery has come and gone and the Houston Rockets fell just a number short of winning the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.
With the intrastate rival San Antonio Spurs coming out of Tuesday holding on to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, the Rockets came away with the No. 4 overall selection. The Charlotte Hornets took the No. 2 overall pick and the Portland Trail Blazers ended up with the third overall pick.
While not winning the lottery stings for Houston, the results give the Rockets flexibility in terms of what they can do in the draft. They could stick with the pick and select from a plethora of talent, or they could be aggressive and choose to trade up to select either Alabama forward Brandon Miller or G League Ignite’s Scoot Henderson.
Here is what Houston could package in a deal to Charlotte if the Rockets feel inspired by the Houston Texans and opt to move up and get their guy at No. 2.
Firstly, why Charlotte and not Portland, who sits at No. 3? The main reason for it is that the Trail Blazers, despite the lackluster 2022-23 season, are looking to get back up to championship contention in 2023-24 in what could be the last attempt to win with star guard Damian Lillard.
Because of Portland’s mindset, it would be less inclined to be enticed by future draft capital in a deal. When you look at Houston’s current roster there is also not a player the Rockets can include in a deal that would instantly jump the Trail Blazers into the contention conversation.
While Jalen Green, Jabari Smith and Alperen Şengün could be impact players for Portland, the Rockets likely don’t want to trade anyone from that group of players either, at least its pairing of Green and Smith.
So the focus now turns to the Hornets. Charlotte has a perennial star in LaMelo Ball on its roster already, but the team is in much more dire need of adding as much talent as possible.
The non-negotiable that will need to be included in the deal is Houston’s No. 4 overall pick. That is a no-brainer. The Rockets also own the Los Angeles Clippers’ pick (No. 20 overall) that could also be included in a potential trade with the Hornets.
While the Rockets no longer control their own draft picks in 2024, 2025 and 2026 due to the Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul trade in 2019, they do own the Brooklyn Nets’ 2024 and 2026 first-round picks.
A package of the No. 4 overall pick, the No. 20 overall pick in 2023 and either Şengün, Kenyon Martin Jr., Jae'Sean Tate or one of the Nets’ 2024 or 2026 first-round picks should be enough to get the Hornets’ attention.
In exchange, the Rockets can add Henderson, who averaged 16.5 points, 6.8 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game in the G League last season. They can also take Miller, who put together 18.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per contest for the Crimson Tide in college.
While it is a hefty price to move up, the Rockets would have secured its core of three players in Green, Smith and whoever they take at No. 2 in this scenario, and they can add on from there in the future through free agency and trades.
If Houston believes the final piece to its core is available at No. 2, then no price is too big. With the Rockets set on phase two, the flexibility they have is an interesting luxury.
There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.
Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.
The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.
But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.
The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.
Astros pitcher hires a new agent
Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.
But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.
With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.
However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.
Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).
Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.
I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.
There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?
Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.
If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.
One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.
Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.
It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.
The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.
Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?
After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.
And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.
So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.
Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.
Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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