THE PALLILOG
How Rockets' young guns are turning into an NBA nightmare for opponents
Jan 31, 2025, 11:58 am
Amen Thompson looks like the real deal. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.
Thursday night's one point loss at Memphis aside, what a run the Houston Rockets have been enjoying. Within a two week stretch the Rockets beat the last two NBA Champions (winning on the road in Denver and Boston), and twice beat the Cleveland Cavaliers who have the best record in the league this season and against all other teams are 39-7. Yes, the Nuggets were without Nikola Jokic in their loss to the Rockets but don’t nitpick. Entering February with a 32-15 record exceeds even optimistic preseason hopes. The preseason betting line for the Rockets' season win total was 43, give or take a game. They are on pace to win 55.
In the 2022-23 season the Rockets completed a three-year run as an on-court laughingstock with a 22-60 record. That tied for the second worst record in the NBA, following seasons of 20-62 and 17-55 which each were the worst record in the league. It was an embarrassing stretch for a proud franchise. The Rockets had just three losing seasons total in the 36 seasons prior to their recent three years in the toilet. Following the ‘22-’23 slog, the Rockets’ cross their fingers really hard hope was to win the draft lottery where the unquestioned grand prize was Victor Wembanyama. Alas, the Rockets drew only the fourth pick on lottery night. “Wemby” hasn’t disappointed the San Antonio Spurs at all, and in this his second season he stands a strong chance of winning the Defensive Player of the Year Award.Prevailing sentiment had point guard “Scoot” Henderson as the second-best prospect in the ‘23 draft. The Charlotte Hornets took forward Brandon Miller at number two because they already had LaMelo Ball at point guard. The Portland Trail Blazers then took Henderson at three. Would the Rockets have taken him at number two or three? We don’t know with certainty. Other than for laughs they have no reason to admit they'd have selected "Scoot," any more than Nick Caserio would have to admit the Texans’ would have drafted Bryce Young over C.J. Stroud if they had picked first not second in the 2023 NFL draft. What we do know is the Rockets picked Amen Thompson fourth. Amen to that.
Thompson individually best mirrors the Rockets’ rapid rise from mediocre last season (41-41) to legitimate contender. Thompson was the fourth pick in his draft class, after the Rockets took Jabari Smith third the year before, with Jalen Green the second overall pick the year before that. It was Smith’s broken hand in early January that spurred head coach Ime Udoka to insert Thompson into the starting lineup. I’m guessing neither Thompson nor Smith know the story of Wally Pipp (or perhaps Lou Gehrig either), but how can Udoka put Smith back in the starting lineup? The race is on for which in hindsight will be general manager Rafael Stone’s greater move, taking Thompson at four or swinging the post-draft trade that netted 2021 number 16 selection Alperen Sengun. Sengun Thursday night was named an All-Star game reserve for the first time. One can envision Thompson joining Sengun on an All-Star squad as soon as next season. Credit to Jalen Green for some improvement this season, but the idea that he has made a huge leap and should have made the All-Star game is silly. Green has stretches where hot shooting combines with his explosiveness to make him look like a star, but that is not his body of work. Green’s shooting percentages remain below average from the floor overall and from behind the three-point line.
The Rockets are second in the Western Conference while getting essentially nothing from the third pick in last June’s draft, guard Reed Sheppard. He’s just 20 years old and there is no reason for a pure shooter to lose that skill before he can legally buy a beer, so bust talk is way premature. But Sheppard looked like a poor man’s Bryce Drew (that’s not a compliment) in his early season opportunities, overmatched physically with the game way too fast for him.
When you draft in the top four for four consecutive years, you’re supposed to assemble some stout talent. In consecutive drafts the Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder picked Kevin Durant (at number two), Russell Westbrook (at number four), and James Harden (at number three). Success is no given however even with a raft of high lottery picks. The Minnesota Timberwolves in successive drafts selected third, fifth and sixth the same year, fourth, and second. Their “haul” was O.J. Mayo, Ricky Rubio/Jonny Flynn, Wesley Johnson, and Derrick Williams. Yikes.
The current iteration of the Thunder is obviously the best team in the Western Conference, but until OKC breaks through and wins a conference title, it’s not unreasonable to think OKC can be had in a best-of-seven. That the Rockets make the list of teams who wouldn’t require a miracle to topple the Thunder is a phenomenal development.
Still counting down to the start of spring training, but we have taken no offseason from discussing the Astros. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for a New Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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