GREAT EXPECTATIONS
2 undeniable x-factors that will determine success for Texans prized rookie
May 15, 2023, 7:02 pm
GREAT EXPECTATIONS
Will Anderson Jr. feels ready to make the jump from college football to the NFL and a big reason for that is because of how he was prepared with the Alabama Crimson Tide.
“It just kind of makes me versatile,” Anderson told reporters over the weekend. “I am very excited. However they want to use me is just going to be anything I kind of did at Alabama, so you know, I am super excited.”
With the Texans trading up to select Anderson at No. 3, there will be a lot of eyeballs on his performance throughout the season. While every player is different, and there are various factors that will go into it, there will be a certain level of production that is going to be expected from the top prospect during the 2023 season.
But what exactly could be deemed successful for Anderson’s rookie campaign?
Anderson is going to be utilized as a true defensive end by the Texans. While with the Crimson Tide Anderson spent most of his time prior to snaps on two feet, he will be starting plays in three-point stances oftentimes with Houston, head coach DeMeco Ryans mentioned during his weekend availability with media.
While the change in itself will be an adjustment for Anderson, it is not going to be enough to temper expectations for Houston fans.
The last high draft pick the Texans took at defensive end was in 2014 when they selected Jadeveon Clowney as the No. 1 overall pick. Clowney didn’t have the best rookie season as he played in only four games and tallied just seven total tackles.
Whether fair or not, the chatter around the No. 1 overall pick following his rookie year revolved around his inability to stay on the field, and it was something Clowney was never truly ever to shake off during his tenure with the Texans.
In comparison, when Houston took J.J. Watt No. 11 overall in 2011, he played all 16 games. He tallied 56 total tackles and 5.5 sacks, and he was considered a key piece in Houston’s top defense that year as the Texans clinched a playoff berth for the first time in franchise history.
Looking at last year’s draft, the No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker had 3.5 sacks for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Detroit’s top pick, No. 2 overall selection Aidan Hutchinson, had 9.5 sacks for the Lions in 2022.
Hutchinson was in the conversation for the 2022 Defensive Rookie of the Year while Walker was not.
Heading into 2023, most Texans fans will want Anderson to be in the 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year conversation if not the outright winner because of the draft picks the team gave up to select him. That is one factor to consider when deeming his rookie season a success.
Anderson will be compared to other defensive ends in the draft including the Las Vegas Raiders’ Tyree Wilson and Philadelphia’s Jalen Carter. When the 2023 season is all said and done, there will be two factors that determine the success of Anderson’s season — impact and availability.
Expecting 9.5 sacks for Anderson on a defense that struggled to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks in 2022 might not be the best watermark to gauge the success of a rookie season. Again, Watt had 5.5 sacks his first year in the league.
A number anywhere between four and eight sacks should be considered a success, especially if he is impacting opposing offenses on a consistent basis, whether it be with tackles for loss, batted passes and quarterback hurries.
For Anderson himself, the focus is on being intentional with his moves, swarming to the ball and having a relentless mindset, he said. Anderson wants to hone his go-to moves, footwork, and hand placement.
“There is no pressure,” Anderson said. “Just come in here and be you, have fun, bring energy and just be together. I think that is the biggest thing that they harp on that I am understanding, is that there is no pressure. You’ve been playing football all your whole life. You are just going out there and doing what you like to do.”
The Astros are making noise again — not by bludgeoning teams with a powerhouse offense, but by grinding through games and getting elite production from a patched-together pitching staff. It’s a testament to their depth and resilience that they went 4-2 on a tough road trip while averaging just 3.6 runs per game. Even more impressive? The staff allowed just 2.3 runs per game during that stretch.
It’s fair to be impressed. This is a team still missing key pieces and leaning heavily on unproven arms, yet they’ve built a 2.5-game lead over Seattle in the AL West. If the rotation keeps performing like this, that cushion might not just hold through the All-Star break — it could grow.
Houston's pitching has been the great stabilizer. The Astros rank 1st in strikeouts, 9th in ERA, 4th in WHIP, and 2nd in batting average against. The numbers aren’t carried solely by the stars either. Youngsters like Brandon Walter and Colton Gordon have stepped in admirably. Walter has allowed just two runs combined across his first two starts (6 IP and 5 IP), while Gordon has quietly gone five innings in three straight outings, giving up 1, 4, and 3 runs. Ryan Gusto has been inconsistent — failing to get through five innings in his last three starts — but has kept the damage manageable (3, 2, and 2 runs in those outings).
Meanwhile, the top of the rotation has been lights out. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown have become one of the most dominant 1-2 punches in baseball, and Lance McCullers Jr. is starting to look like a real contributor again. It’s a staff carrying the team while the bats slowly try to catch up.
That offense, while mediocre overall — 15th in OPS, 20th in runs, 19th in homers, and 18th in slugging — has shown signs of life in recent days. Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers have provided much-needed sparks. Peña is hitting .370 over the past week with an .851 OPS, while Meyers has been even hotter, posting a .381 average and .934 OPS.
The biggest news off the field this week was the potential end of the Forrest Whitley era. The former first-round pick was designated for assignment, a move that answers an early-season question: Who’s more likely to contribute this year — Whitley or McCullers? The answer is now clear.
Whitley’s DFA also serves as a reminder that not even elite GMs like Jeff Luhnow are immune to draft misses.
The Astros' last four first-round picks of the Jeff Luhnow era show how much of a crapshoot drafting can be.
2016: Forrest Whitley
2017: J.B. Bukauskus
2018: Seth Beer
2019: Korey Lee
Bukauskus and Beer did help land Zack Greinke, which certainly can be justified.
— Greg Rajan (@GregRajan) June 8, 2025
As the Houston Chronicle's Greg Rajan points out, Luhnow’s final four first-round picks with Houston all fell short: Whitley (2016), J.B. Bukauskas (2017), Seth Beer (2018), and Korey Lee (2019) have yet to become meaningful pieces for any club. The draft remains a gamble — even for the best.
Still, the Astros are finding answers. Despite an offense that’s still searching for consistency, their pitching — both from the top and the bottom of the depth chart — has been dominant. If that continues, this club won't just hold the lead. They’ll have momentum heading into July.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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