GREAT EXPECTATIONS

2 undeniable x-factors that will determine success for Texans prized rookie

Texans Will Anderson, CJ Stroud
The sky is the limit for Will Anderson.Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images
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Will Anderson Jr. feels ready to make the jump from college football to the NFL and a big reason for that is because of how he was prepared with the Alabama Crimson Tide.

“It just kind of makes me versatile,” Anderson told reporters over the weekend. “I am very excited. However they want to use me is just going to be anything I kind of did at Alabama, so you know, I am super excited.”

With the Texans trading up to select Anderson at No. 3, there will be a lot of eyeballs on his performance throughout the season. While every player is different, and there are various factors that will go into it, there will be a certain level of production that is going to be expected from the top prospect during the 2023 season.

But what exactly could be deemed successful for Anderson’s rookie campaign?

Anderson is going to be utilized as a true defensive end by the Texans. While with the Crimson Tide Anderson spent most of his time prior to snaps on two feet, he will be starting plays in three-point stances oftentimes with Houston, head coach DeMeco Ryans mentioned during his weekend availability with media.

While the change in itself will be an adjustment for Anderson, it is not going to be enough to temper expectations for Houston fans.

The last high draft pick the Texans took at defensive end was in 2014 when they selected Jadeveon Clowney as the No. 1 overall pick. Clowney didn’t have the best rookie season as he played in only four games and tallied just seven total tackles.

Whether fair or not, the chatter around the No. 1 overall pick following his rookie year revolved around his inability to stay on the field, and it was something Clowney was never truly ever to shake off during his tenure with the Texans.

In comparison, when Houston took J.J. Watt No. 11 overall in 2011, he played all 16 games. He tallied 56 total tackles and 5.5 sacks, and he was considered a key piece in Houston’s top defense that year as the Texans clinched a playoff berth for the first time in franchise history.

Looking at last year’s draft, the No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker had 3.5 sacks for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Detroit’s top pick, No. 2 overall selection Aidan Hutchinson, had 9.5 sacks for the Lions in 2022.

Hutchinson was in the conversation for the 2022 Defensive Rookie of the Year while Walker was not.

Heading into 2023, most Texans fans will want Anderson to be in the 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year conversation if not the outright winner because of the draft picks the team gave up to select him. That is one factor to consider when deeming his rookie season a success.

Anderson will be compared to other defensive ends in the draft including the Las Vegas Raiders’ Tyree Wilson and Philadelphia’s Jalen Carter. When the 2023 season is all said and done, there will be two factors that determine the success of Anderson’s season — impact and availability.

Expecting 9.5 sacks for Anderson on a defense that struggled to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks in 2022 might not be the best watermark to gauge the success of a rookie season. Again, Watt had 5.5 sacks his first year in the league.

A number anywhere between four and eight sacks should be considered a success, especially if he is impacting opposing offenses on a consistent basis, whether it be with tackles for loss, batted passes and quarterback hurries.

For Anderson himself, the focus is on being intentional with his moves, swarming to the ball and having a relentless mindset, he said. Anderson wants to hone his go-to moves, footwork, and hand placement.

“There is no pressure,” Anderson said. “Just come in here and be you, have fun, bring energy and just be together. I think that is the biggest thing that they harp on that I am understanding, is that there is no pressure. You’ve been playing football all your whole life. You are just going out there and doing what you like to do.”

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It could be a big night for Alperen Sengun. Photo by David Berding/Getty Images.

When: Thursday, 8 p.m. EST
Where: Houston, TX
BetMGM Line: Rockets -10; Over/Under 219

BOTTOM LINE:
The New Orleans Pelicans are looking to end a four-game skid as they take on the Houston Rockets, who have established themselves as a force in the Western Conference this season.

The Rockets (17-9) currently sit third in the West and boast one of the league's best rebounding units, led by Alperen Sengun. Houston has dominated within the division, posting a 4-1 record against Southwest Division opponents. Meanwhile, the Pelicans (5-22) have struggled mightily, especially within their division, where they remain winless at 0-3.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR:

  • Houston’s Rebounding Edge
    The Rockets lead the Western Conference in rebounding, averaging 49.3 boards per game. Alperen Sengun has been a standout, contributing 10.6 rebounds along with 18.6 points and 5.2 assists per contest. This could spell trouble for a Pelicans squad that has been outmuscled on the glass in recent outings.
  • Pelicans’ Scoring Woes
    New Orleans ranks last in the Western Conference in scoring, putting up just 105.1 points per game on 43.7% shooting. Their offense will be further hampered by injuries to key players like Brandon Ingram (ankle) and Zion Williamson (hamstring), leaving the team with limited options to generate points.
  • Defensive Disparities
    While the Rockets aren’t elite defensively, allowing 106.1 points per game, they should benefit from the Pelicans' offensive struggles. Houston's opponents are shooting just 42.5% in the Rockets' last 10 games, a figure that contrasts with the 48.3% shooting New Orleans allows to opposing teams over the season.

RECENT FORM:

  • Rockets: Houston is 6-4 over its last 10 games, averaging 108.0 points and 47.3 rebounds while holding opponents to 106.0 points. The Rockets have been solid on both ends, particularly in forcing turnovers, as they average 8.3 steals and 6.1 blocks per game.
  • Pelicans: New Orleans has dropped nine of its last 10 games, scoring 107.3 points on 43.9% shooting while giving up a whopping 118.9 points per game to opponents. Injuries have ravaged the Pelicans’ lineup, leaving them vulnerable in both scoring and defense.

INJURY REPORT:

  • Rockets: No injuries reported.
  • Pelicans: Brandon Ingram (ankle) and Zion Williamson (hamstring) are out, while Jose Alvarado (hamstring) is also sidelined. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Karlo Matkovic, and Jordan Hawkins are listed as day-to-day.

KEY MATCHUP:
Alperen Sengun vs. the Pelicans' Interior Defense
Sengun’s ability to dominate the paint with his rebounding and passing could be a deciding factor. Without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, the Pelicans’ defense will be shorthanded and at risk of being overpowered by Houston’s size and depth.

PREDICTION:
The Rockets are heavy favorites for a reason. With no major injuries and a strong rebounding game, Houston should control the tempo and exploit the Pelicans’ lack of offensive firepower. Expect Houston to extend New Orleans’ losing streak in convincing fashion.

Final Score Prediction: Rockets 114, Pelicans 98


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