THE PALLILOG

Latest Texans drama, outrage, and a cloudy playoff picture

Texans Danielle Hunter, CJ Stroud, Tank Dell
Can the Texans overcome the loss of Azeez Al-Shaair? Composite Getty Image.

No Texans game this weekend. No Texans game for Azeez Al-Shaair for a month. Let’s state it simply up front. Al-Shaair's knockout shot of Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence was flagrantly illegal and obviously worthy of suspension, even more so with Al-Shaair's other personal fouls this season taken into account. He doesn’t get a three-game suspension without a track record. Well, he has one. As the saying goes, if you can’t do the time don’t do the crime. Silver lining, Al-Shaair should be fresh for the playoffs. He can return for the regular season finale.

Attacks on Al-Shaair's off-field character have ranged from unwarranted to offensive, but his on-field character can fairly be called out. Many players in such a violent sport have different personalities on and off the gridiron, but cheap shots are cheap shots and Al-Shaair is a recidivist taker of them. The hit on Lawrence was in one way the least egregious of Al-Shaair's three clear offenses this season in that, wrong as it was, at least it came in making a football play. He should have been kicked out of the Bears game in week two for throwing a punch on the sideline. Two Sundays ago he drilled Titans’ running back Tony Pollard in a blatant late hit out of bounds.

The argument that Lawrence slid late and hence Al-Shaair couldn’t stop himself is a weak lesson learned in an Excuse Making 101 class. Lawrence was a full four yards from Al-Shaair when he started to slide. Of course the action happens fast but that was enough time for Al-Shaair to react differently than by launching himself and leading with a forearm shiver. The claim that he was committed before Lawrence slid does not hold water. He’s not going that low against a runner (and making no effort to wrap and tackle) unless the idea was to go for the knees, also illegal. Any Texans’ player, coach, or executive alibi-ing for Al-Shaair would probably have gone ballistic if, say, Josh Hines-Allen had made the exact same hit with the exact same result against C.J. Stroud.

Fandom: where passion knows no bounds

I think doctors still take the Hippocratic Oath of integrity and pledging to always do what is best for the patient. For many sports fans there is a de facto Hypocritic Oath taken, by which a fan can gloss over wrongdoing when done by one’s preferred team, but want the book thrown at an opponent guilty of the same wrongdoing. The Astros’ cheating scandal was the classic exhibit of that here. Had the 2017 Dodgers been the team caught with hands in the same cookie jar instead of the Astros, many Dodgers fans would have scoffed that it was no big deal and “everybody was doing it.” Meanwhile many Astros fans would have been beyond apoplectic at the nefarious deed and wanted the Dodgers punished to the max. The way of the world.

If one wants to argue that quarterbacks are over-protected, so be it, but everyone knows they are heavily protected as the most valuable and expensive group of commodities in the game. If a defender can’t play accordingly, the defender is the problem, not the rules. There are those who romanticize what used to be allowed in the NFL, and lament what they consider the “wussification” of the game today. It’s a rather Neanderthal-ish perspective given the reality of CTE and the numerous sad stories of dementia and suicide.

Examining the ripple effect

While not a star, Al-Shaair will be missed. He’s been solid overall pretty much at the level of the guy he replaced (Blake Cashman). In the 10 regular season games he’s played Al-Shaair has been on the field for 85 percent of the Texans’ defensive snaps. His suspension does happen to coincide with the Texans’ toughest three game stretch of the season. He’ll sit out matchups with the Dolphins, Chiefs, and Ravens. The Dolphins will be here in desperation mode trying to keep playoff hopes alive, but when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy at quarterback, Miami is a better team than its 5-7 record indicates. The Chiefs are the Chiefs. The Ravens will have Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry ready to roll at NRG Stadium Christmas day.

Fortunately for the Texans they can lose all three of those games and still win the AFC South, but it could get dicey. To borrow from baseball, the Texans’ magic number is two. Any combination of Texan wins and Colt losses that reaches two wraps it up. The Colts also have their open week this week. Next week they play at Denver in a probable loss. Couple that with a Texans win over the Dolphins, and division title clinched. However, should the Texans go 0-3 in Al-Shaair's absence to fall to 8-8...

After Denver, the Colts’ final three games are versus the worse, worser, and worsest Titans, Giants, and Jaguars. If Indy upsets the Broncos, winning out becomes quite viable. That would mean a 10-7 final record, forcing the Texans to win two of their remaining four games. A loss at Denver and three wins closing the Colts at 9-8 would mean the Texans need one victory. The Texans’ regular season finale is at...Tennessee.

Food for thought

Two-time former Texan Kareem Jackson last season got separate two and four-game suspensions for his repeated illegal and/or dirty hits. The 36-years-old Jackson is still hanging on to his career. He's been on the Buffalo Bills’ practice squad this season.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are hot names at the Winter Meetings. Composite Getty Image.

The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.

The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.

Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.

Back to Bregman

Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.

While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.

Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.

Bang for your buck

Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.

Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.

Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.

The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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