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Houston Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair addresses hit on Trevor Lawrence

Houston Texans linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair addresses hit on Trevor Lawrence
Al-Shaair could face a suspension. Photo by Mike Carlson/Getty Images.

Houston’s Azeez Al-Shaair took to X on Monday morning to apologize to Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence after his violent blow to the quarterback’s facemask led to him being carted off the field with a concussion.

Back in the starting lineup after missing two games with a sprained left shoulder, Lawrence scrambled left on a second-and-7 play in the second quarter of Houston’s 23-20 win on Sunday. He initiated a slide before Al-Shaair raised his forearm and unleashed on the defenseless quarterback.

In the long post, Al-Shaair, who was ejected for the hit, first said he didn’t see Lawrence sliding until “it was too late” and that it happened “in the blink of an eye” before saying he was sorry for the hit.

“To Trevor I genuinely apologize to you for what ended up happening,” Al-Shaair wrote. “Before the game we spoke and I told you how great it was to see you back out on the field and wished you well. I would never want to see any player hurt because of a hit I put on them, especially one that was ruled ‘late’ or ‘unnecessary.’”

Lawrence clenched both fists after the hit — movements consistent with what’s referred to as the “fencing response,” which can be common after a traumatic brain injury. He was on the ground for several minutes as teammates came to his defense and mobbed Al-Shaair.

Al-Shaair was ejected for “an illegal hit on the quarterback, unnecessary, to the neck and head area,” referee Land Clark said in a pool report Sunday. Jaguars rookie cornerback Jarrian Jones also was ejected for throwing a punch during the melee.

As Al-Shaair was leaving the field, fans started screaming at him. Jaguars veteran guard Brandon Scherff joined in, prompting another altercation with Al-Shaair. Texans teammate Will Anderson grabbed Al-Shaair and was escorting him off the field when a fan threw a water bottle and hit Anderson in the helmet. The fan was later ejected.

Later in the post on X, Al-Shaair said he understood why Jacksonville's players came to the defense of Lawrence in the brawl following the hit.

“I can understand you having his back and defending him in a situation like that,” Al-Shaair wrote.

Then he complained about reporters and others for their commentary about him in the wake of the hit.

“To the rest of the people who I’ve been called every single name in the book from (to) reporters with their hands ready for a story to find their villain, to racist and Islamophobic fans and people, you don’t know heart nor my character which I don’t need to prove to any of you,” he wrote. “God knows my intentions and anyone who has ever been a teammate or friend of mine knows my heart.”

Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said Sunday it was a play that ”really has no business being in our league,” and Houston coach DeMeco Ryans said “that’s not what we’re coaching.”

Last week, Al-Shaair was flagged and later fined $11,255 for a late hit out of bounds on Titans running back Tony Pollard.

He was fined earlier this year after he punched Bears running back Roschon Johnson on the sideline in Week 2. That occurred during a scuffle that started after his hard shot on quarterback Caleb Williams near the sideline wasn’t flagged.

Al-Shaair, a sixth-year pro, will certainly receive a fine for the hit on Lawrence and could also be suspended.

At the beginning of his post on X, Al-Shaair said he’s always played the game hard and that he would never intentionally try to harm anyone.

“My goal is to hit you as hard as I can and then pray you’re still able to get up and play the next play,” he wrote. “And when the game is over go home to your family unharmed because it’s not personal, it’s just competition! We both are trying to do the same thing which is provide for our families!”

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The Coogs square off with Duke on Saturday. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

The data told the story all year on Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn. In that regard, it shouldn't be a surprise to see them in the Final Four as only the second all-chalk set of 1-seeds to reach college basketball's final stage.

The Blue Devils, Cougars, Gators and Tigers had held the top four spots in daily rankings from KenPom since the first half of February, and their net efficiency ranks among the best ever charted by the analytics site going back more than a quarter-century. They were also the headliners on data-driven rankings from Bart Torvik and Evan Miyakawa as well, further confirmation of how good these teams have been from November, through March Madness and now entering San Antonio.

There's only a few minor variations in those comparisons. Duke is No. 1 for KenPom and Miyakawa ahead of Houston, while the Cougars are No. 1 in Torvik ahead of the Blue Devils. And the offensive and defensive efficiency numbers are all in the top 10 except for Torvik having the Gators at 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Otherwise, the data matches the eye test.

College and NBA TV analyst Terrence Oglesby, who played at Clemson, pointed to all four having “big, switchable guys who can make shots" as a common thread between the teams operating at elite efficiency on both sides of the ball.

“Outside of that top four, a lot of people were depending on runs,” Oglesby said. “You have to be able to play both sides of the ball with consistency. And these four do that so much better than everyone else.”

And that applies over years, too, when it comes to KenPom's long-running data.

KenPom bases efficiency metrics on points scored or allowed over a standardized 100-possession pace, which eliminates tempo as a factor in high averages boosted by playing at a faster pace or numbers depressed by grind-down-the-clock styles. The overall rankings are determined by net efficiency in terms of how much a team's offensive data outpaces its defensive numbers.

In that regard, Duke's plus-39.62 rating is the second-highest net efficiency recorded by KenPom in data back to the 1996-97 season. Only the Blue Devils' 1998-99 team (plus 43.01) that went 37-2 and lost in the NCAA title game ranks higher.

Duke is coming off a defensive masterclass in the East Region final against 2-seed Alabama, which had scored 113 points and hit 25 3-pointers in its Sweet 16 win against BYU. The Blue Devils have the nation's tallest roster with every rotation player standing 6-feet-5 or taller, and they're an elite switching group with bigs using their length to capably contest against smaller, quicker guards out to the arc.

That helped them smother the Crimson Tide: Alabama went 8 of 32 from 3-point range, made just 45.4% of its two point shots and averaged .942 points per possession. Its 65-point output joined a January loss to Ole Miss (64) as the only times the Tide failed to reach 70 points in the past two seasons.

“Duke is as good a team as we’ve seen all year,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said. "We’ve got some really good teams in the SEC, and they’re at that level.”

Houston (plus 36.49), Florida (plus 36.05) and Auburn (plus 35.25) currently have their own lofty perch, too, with historically elite KenPom numbers.

Consider: only six teams have finished with a net efficiency of at least plus 35 in KenPom's history: Duke 1998-99, Duke 2000-01 (37.32), Kansas 2007-08 (35.21), Kentucky 2014-15 (36.91), Gonzaga 2020-21 (36.48) and UConn 2023-24 (36.43).

Of that group, three teams — Duke 2001, Kansas and UConn — won a national title.

Of this year’s Final Four teams, Duke, Houston and Auburn have ranked inside the top five in all of KenPom’s daily rankings. Florida started the year at No. 26, but cracked the top 10 by late November.

“You need to have depth and need to have multiple guys that can step up when other guys aren’t playing their best,” Florida coach Todd Golden said after Saturday's comeback win against Texas Tech for the program's first Final Four trip since 2014. “That’s why we’ve been good all year and consistent, why we haven’t lost two in a row. We haven’t got in any droughts or situations where nobody’s stepping up.”

Now the Gators are part of a quartet ranked 1-2-3-4 in some order of KenPom’s daily rankings dating to Feb. 12, while Auburn (80) and Duke (50) have combined to hold the No. 1 spot 89.7% of the time in the 145 rankings dating to Nov. 4.

Along the way, Duke (Atlantic Coast Conference ) and Houston (Big 12 ) went 19-1 in league play before winning three games for their league tournament title. Auburn won the regular season and Florida claimed the tournament title in the a Southeastern Conference that produced a record 14 NCAA bids.

The only other time a Final Four featured four 1-seeds came in 2008, with Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina making it to through the first two weeks of the NCAA Tournament. Coincidentally, that Final Four also came in San Antonio.

This time could mark a coronation for a team that, from a data standpoint, ranks among the sport's best teams in decades.

“It's been the most dominant run by four teams that I can remember,” Oglesby said. “It's amazing to see really.”

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