Here are the key opportunities, challenges Houston Texans face against Burrow's Bengals
Nov 10, 2023, 4:30 pm
What: Texans vs. Bengals
When: 11/12 12pm CST kickoff
Where: Cincinnati, OH Paycor Stadium
TV/Radio: KHOU-TV, KILT-Radio
Betting Lines: Bengals -6.5 (-110), O/U 47 (-110) *As of this writing
The Bengals enter this matchup on a four-game win streak after losing their October 1 game 27-3 to the Titans. They're now 5-3 overall. The Texans enter the game alternating wins and losses over their last five for a 3-2 record, 4-4 overall. Both teams are seemingly hitting their stride after a bit of a rough start. The Bengals went from potential Super Bowl contenders to a team looking very much like a shell of its former self at the beginning of this season. The Texans were an afterthought who showed promise, now they're being looked at as a surprise playoff contender by some. Both teams have very young head coach/quarterback combos. Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow are 40 and 26, respectively. DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud are 39 and 22, respectively. The NFL's youth movement will be on full display.
When the Bengals have the ball: For a team that doesn't average 300 yards of total offense a game, the Bengals are still favored by almost a full touchdown and extra point. While their defense has been the calling card, especially in their current win streak, this offense is still capable of putting up ridiculous numbers. Wide receiver Tee Higgins (hamstring) has been ruled out for this game. Ja'Marr Chase (back) is expected to be a game time decision, but did suit up for practice on today (Friday). Taylor when asked of Chase's status for the Texans game: “We'll see.” That sounds a lot like somebody asking to borrow money from you when you know they can't pay you back. With the Texans being without Jimmie Ward and Steven Nelson listed as questionable, that might be a wash to see no Higgins and possibly a hobbled Chase. Henry To'oTo'o will be out as well. Look for the Texans to put pressure on Burrow and force the issue, considering the Bengals' offensive line hasn't been very good since he's gotten there. Their run game is almost non-existent for the same reason. 76 yards a game on the ground isn't going to scare anyone.
When the Texans have the ball: The Bengals' defense has been shouldering the burden lately. In their current win streak, they have given up 20 or more once. It was exactly 20 to the lowly Cardinals in a 34-20 win to start their streak. They've been held under 20 once. They beat Seattle 17-13 in the second game of this streak. The Texans have been thought to be in uphill battles against the Saints and Buccaneers recently. Both are very talented defenses. Both lost to the Texans. Stroud is putting up numbers unheard of for a rookie quarterback in this league. One interception in eight games with 14 touchdown passes is impressive. Even more impressive is he's doing this behind an injury-riddled offensive line and doesn't have an alpha-male lead dog WR1. DE Sam Hubbard being out for the Bengals will help Stroud and the pass game. So will having veteran WR Robert Woods back in the fold. Missing Dameon Pierce, Nico Collins, Andrew Beck, and kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn will definitely make things more difficult. Could THIS be the week in which the run game gets going? The Bengals give up 130 yards a game on the ground. The run game would help offset missing pieces in the pass game and help control the clock to give your ailing defense time to recover.
Outcome: No Fairbairn (most of the game) and no Pierce was no problem last week. This week, adding others to that list will make it more of an uphill battle. Whatever the passing yards total is for this game, bet the over. Neither team can run the ball effectively, but the Texans have a better run defense. Part of that comes from help in the secondary. Whoever establishes their run game, will have the leg up. I trust Joe Mixon behind their offensive line more than Devin Singletary behind the Texans' line. Last week, I predicted a closing seconds win. While it didn't go exactly as I thought, a win is a win. This week, I see a similar outcome, but not in their favor. Bengals 23, Texans 21 as Evan McPherson kicks a game winner with a few seconds left on the clock.
There's no denying that this year's World Series champs (LA Dodgers) have some serious firepower on their roster. And one of the ways they were able to assemble such a talented team involved players like Shohei Ohtani being willing to differ their money.
Just this week, there was some speculation that the Yankees could do something similar when restructuring Gerrit Cole's contract, that would allow them more flexibility in the present.
The Yankees ended up calling Cole's bluff about opting out, and no adjustment was made to the contract.
But this situation got us thinking, would the Astros consider a tactic like this to maximize the roster? At this point, it doesn't seem all that likely. Just last year, the team handed out a $95 million contract to Josh Hader, without any differed money.
The other factor that also has to come into play is the tax threshold. The organization would have to give the okay to go over it again in order to make a splash signing this offseason. Which unfortunately does not sound like the plan right now when listening to GM Dana Brown at the Winter Meetings.
Astros pitcher hires a new agent
Now that MLB free agency is in full swing, most of the attention moving forward will be focused on players like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Juan Soto.
But for Astros fans, there might be someone else to keep an eye on this offseason and next. Starting pitcher Hunter Brown quietly hired super agent Scott Boras recently.
With Brown still another season away from his first year of arbitration, he should be with the Astros for the foreseeable future.
However, the hiring of Boras does raise some interesting questions. Why make the move now? Certainly, Brown could use some more cash, as he's set to make less than a million in 2025.
Perhaps Brown wants to land some HEB commercials to fatten his wallet. And if Bregman does leave the team in free agency, a spot will open up for another player, in theory. And three of the players in the HEB ads are represented by Boras (Jose Altuve, Lance McCullers Jr. and Bregman).
Jeremy Pena has been stacking cash from Taquerias Arandas for several years now, maybe Brown would like an opportunity to do an endorsement similar to that.
I say all this half kidding, but Brown does look like the future ace of this staff, and I'm sure there are plenty of advertisers that would have interest in Hunter.
There is another element that could have initiated the hiring of Boras. Would Brown be willing to sign an extension early with the Astros similar to the deal the team made with Cristian Javier?
Their situations are actually pretty comparable, except Javier was one year further into his career (3 years of MLB service time) and eligible for arbitration before agreeing to the extension.
If Brown was heading into arbitration this offseason, it wouldn't be surprising at all for the Astros to be considering a long-term deal with him that buys up all his arbitration years. The 'Stros love these types of contract extensions. We've seen them do it with Bregman, the aforementioned Javier, and others.
One of the main differences though between Brown and Javier is their rookie year numbers. Brown only pitched 20.1 innings in his first season (2022). While Javier pitched 54.1 innings his rookie year. However, his rookie season was in 2020, so Javier completed a full year of service time despite the shortened season. Whereas Brown didn't get called up until September 2022.
Another difference is performance. Javier never posted an ERA over 3.55 in his first three seasons. As opposed to Brown, who had a disastrous year in 2023. He made 29 starts, recording an ERA over 5.
It wasn't until May of 2024 that Brown started using his two-seam fastball with great success and becoming one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League.
The Astros had a bigger sample size to judge Javier. However, if Brown has another quality season in 2025, Houston and Brown should definitely be having conversations about an extension. Especially with Framber Valdez being in the final year of his contract in 2025. Hunter could be the unquestioned ace one year from now.
Still, though, there are some concerns with handing out these early extensions. For example, if the Astros had it to do over again, would they still extend Javier?
After receiving his extension before the 2023 season, he went on to post the highest ERA of his career (4.56), and then blew out his elbow in May 2024.
And if we're going by Luis Garcia's recovery timeline from Tommy John surgery, we may not see Javier pitch at all in 2025.
So even with a sample size of three terrific seasons, the Javier extension looks like a miss with the benefit of hindsight. It will be interesting to see if that deal impacts Dana Brown's decision-making going forward.
Especially since Javier was Dana's first big contract extension as the Astros GM.
Be sure to watch the video as we discuss how the Astros can get the most out of their roster, the pros and cons of signing Hunter Brown early, and much more!
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo discuss varied Astros topics. The post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon. Find all via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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