TEXANS VS. BILLS
Fireworks expected as Texans and Bills ready for explosive showdown
Oct 4, 2024, 11:04 am
Get ready for one of the best matchups of the season! Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
The Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills both enter Week 5 with identical records, looking to continue their strong early-season performances. The Texans, led by breakout quarterback C.J. Stroud, come off a thrilling 24-20 win over Jacksonville, while the Bills are seeking to bounce back after a disappointing 35-10 loss to Baltimore.
Bet MGM NFL Odds: Bills favored by 1
Against the Spread: Buffalo 2-2, Houston 0-3-1
Series Record: Texans lead 6-5
Last Meeting: Bills defeated Texans 40-0 (Oct. 3, 2021)
Key matchups and players to watch
Texans WR Nico Collins:
Collins has been one of the most productive receivers in the NFL this season, leading the league with 489 receiving yards. Coming off a career-best performance with 12 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown against Jacksonville, Collins will be a key target for Stroud against Buffalo’s strong secondary.
Bills DE A.J. Epenesa:
With Von Miller suspended, Epenesa will be expected to step up as Buffalo’s primary pass rusher. Epenesa has one sack through four starts and needs to take on a larger role with the absence of Miller, who leads the NFL's active players in sacks.
Texans WR Stefon Diggs vs. Former Team:
Diggs, who was traded to the Texans in the offseason, will face his former team for the first time. He has been productive for Houston, logging 233 yards and two receiving touchdowns this season, as well as his first career rushing touchdown last week.
Key injuries
The Bills face multiple injury concerns, including linebacker Terrel Bernard, cornerback Taron Johnson, and safety Taylor Rapp, all of whom are questionable. Buffalo's leading receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle) has been ruled out. The Texans could see the return of WR Tank Dell after he missed last week, though RB Joe Mixon is not expected to play. LT Laremy Tunsil is questionable, which could impact their offensive game plan.
Update: Aaron Wilson has the latest on which Texans players are practicing on Friday.
#Texans Joe Mixon remains out of practice and not expected to play Sunday against #Bills Dameon Pierce returns, Tytus Howard sidelined @KPRC2 https://t.co/DR0IKzAC7C
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 4, 2024
Team stats and trends
Bills Offense:
Buffalo’s offense ranks second in scoring but has been inconsistent, as seen in their 10-point showing against the Ravens last week. Josh Allen, while turnover-prone in the past, is on a four-game streak without throwing an interception.
Texans Defense:
Houston’s defense has been a standout, ranking fifth overall and excelling against the pass, which could be key against the Bills' passing attack. However, their 40 penalties this season have been a major issue, and they'll need more discipline to keep pace with Buffalo.
Texans Offense:
Houston's passing game has been stellar, with Stroud leading the Texans to the 8th-best offense overall and the 3rd-ranked passing attack. This will be a critical factor against Buffalo’s defense, which ranks 6th against the pass.
Fantasy tip
Look for Nico Collins to continue his dominant streak as Stroud’s top target. Collins has over 80 receiving yards in six straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Final thoughts
This matchup pits a strong Texans passing game against a resilient Bills defense. Buffalo holds the slight edge in the spread, and with both teams vying for a crucial win, this should be a hard-fought contest.
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The Astros’ latest showdown with the Yankees was more than another chapter in baseball’s best modern rivalry, it was a measuring stick for where Houston stands heading into the stretch run.
At the plate, it’s hard to ask for much more from Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve. Correa hasn’t just been good since rejoining the team, he’s been absurd, hitting over .400 with an OPS pushing 1.100. Altuve keeps stacking milestone moments, and Christian Walker’s bat has been a steady force as well. The collective numbers tell a similar story: since the trade deadline, Houston ranks eighth in OPS and fifth in batting average. And yet, the run total still sits right where it’s been most of the year, squarely in the middle of the pack at 16th. The pieces are there, but the offense hasn’t fully exploded.
The more pressing concern, though, is on the mound. What was an elite pitching staff for most of the season has been much more ordinary lately — 13th in ERA and 15th in WHIP over the past month, with similar August rankings. Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and Spencer Arrighetti are still working their way back to full strength, and until they do, the bullpen is carrying more innings than Joe Espada would like. That’s a dangerous formula when one of your key arms, in this case Javier, is coming back with control issues. In three rehab starts for Sugar Land, he walked 10 batters in just 9.2 innings, so don’t expect him to go much beyond 3–4 innings in his first start back Monday night against Boston. (I hope I'm wrong).
Complicating matters: the Mariners aren’t just lurking, they’re surging. Seven straight wins, nine of their last ten, and now only a half-game back of Houston. This AL West race has all the makings of a sprint to the finish, and the final series between the two teams could decide it.
If the Astros do hang on, Joe Espada should get plenty of credit, maybe even Manager of the Year. He’s managed through a roster crunch that once saw 18 players on the injured list, navigated the post-Alex Bregman and post-Kyle Tucker transition, and still found ways to develop young talent like Cam Smith. That’s a rare balancing act in any season, let alone one with this much turbulence. Oh yeah, he's also missing that Yordan Alvarez guy for most of the season.
Monday night fireworks!
Javier and Bregman returning is big, but seeing Correa back in Astros colors might be the real showstopper. In orange and blue, he looks like he never left—and maybe even more dangerous than before. Jim Crane’s bold deadline push has only added to the firepower, and no one might benefit more than Jose Altuve.
There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode on Thursday!
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