THE PALLILOG
Here's what must change for Texans to steal a signature playoff win over mighty Chiefs
Jan 15, 2025, 9:50 pm
THE PALLILOG
If you are a believer in the third time is a charm, go ahead and book the Texans for their first ever appearance in the AFC Championship game! Saturday is the Texans’ third crack at the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Of course, the Texans had a third time is the charm opportunity at advancing beyond the division round back in 2016 and came nowhere close. Charm will have nothing to do with the outcome at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have administered the Texans’ two most humiliating postseason defeats in franchise history. They came as the bookend postseason appearances of Bill O’Brien’s tenure as head coach. In 2015, the Texans won the worst division in the AFC (that sounds familiar) but as a division champ got to play host to the Wild Card 11-5 Chiefs. The visitors were three-point favorites. They won by 30. 30-0 to be more precise. Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff 106 yards for a touchdown. It would have been in the Texans’ best interest to have forfeited right then and there. In what was not exactly a shocking development, Texans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn’t up to the task, throwing for just 112 yards and four interceptions. On the Chiefs’ side third-year tight end Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 128 yards. Taylor Swift was not in attendance.
The second Texans-Chiefs playoff get together is the most incredible game in Texans’ history. The Texans showed up in Missouri fresh off the greatest comeback win in their history, having come from down 16-0 in the third quarter to best the Buffalo Bills in overtime. In what could safely be characterized as stunning, the Texans put up three first quarter touchdowns for a 21-0 lead. *Massive bonus points if you can name the three Texans who scored those TDs, answer below. A field goal made it 24-0 Texans with 10:54 left in the second quarter. In a collapse tough to pull off, the Texans would trail before halftime. The Chiefs scored four touchdowns in nine minutes and eleven seconds of game time, with that Kelce fellow scoring the last three of them. Some will recall O’Brien calling a fake punt from his own 31-yard line with the Texans up 24-7. Too soon? Justin Reid (now pursuing his third Super Bowl ring in three seasons as a Chief) was stopped short. An even more damning O’Brien moment came later in that game when he actually had to use a timeout to change his mind and go for it with 11:49 left in the fourth quarter, the Texans down 48-31, and facing fourth and four at the K.C. 42. That was a fire-able on the spot offense! Instead it took an 0-4 start to the 2020 season for O’Brien to be ousted. 51-31 Chiefs was the final score, and they went on to win the first of their three Super Bowl titles in the ongoing Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.
Back to the present
Those routs were then, this is now. For a 15-2 team the Chiefs seem vulnerable. Maximum credit to them for having won an NFL record 16 consecutive games decided by eight or fewer points, 11 of them this season including their 27-19 victory over the Texans December 21. Perhaps the two-time defending champions were often bored with the regular season and often did just enough to win. The Texans would have been tied with them late in the third quarter had Ka’imi Fairbairn not botched an extra point. On the other hand, it was the play that got them within 17-16 which resulted in Tank Dell’s catastrophic season-ending knee injury. Who besides Nico Collins will do something in the passing game Saturday? Last Saturday the Texans’ pass rush harassed and flustered Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert. Mahomes is a different breed. Four weeks ago the Texans sacked Mahomes just once and did not intercept him. That seemingly must change for the Texans to pull off what be a shocker for most people. Saturday’s high temperature forecast for Kansas City is 25 degrees. Not ideal for the Texans but better than if the game had been scheduled for Sunday when the high is supposed to be 16.
Still standing
Four Texans who dressed for the debacle five years ago will suit up against the Chiefs Saturday: Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard who were in their first season with the team, Fairbairn, and long snapper Jon Weeks. Granted he’s just a long snapper (important role but not physically taxing), but Weeks is in his 15th season with the Texans and has yet to miss a game-244 regular season games (with Saturday his 14th playoff game, also without a miss). Presuming he is back next season, Weeks (who turns 39 next month) can crack the top five list of most consecutive games played in NFL history by answering the bell in the first 12 regular season games.
*The Texans’ three early TDS in the 51-31 loss at KC: 1. Kenny Stills with a 54-yard reception 2. Lonnie Johnson with a 10-yard return of a blocked punt 3. Darren Fells with a four-yard grab
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
The Texans are favored to win the AFC South for a third straight season with a team led by young stars quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. Stroud’s strong first two years helped the Texans turn things around and this year they’ll try to reach the playoffs in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history. Stroud will be directing a new offense led by first-time offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who took over after Bobby Slowik was fired this offseason following Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. General manager Nick Caserio also beefed up the team’s receiving corps, led by Nico Collins, by adding veteran Christian Kirk and drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. Coach DeMeco Ryans has vowed the offensive line will be better this season after Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, which was second-most in the league. But it’s difficult to see how his protection will be better after they traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and didn’t make any big moves to replace him. Defensively, Anderson should take another step forward in his second year playing with veteran Danielle Hunter after the third-overall pick in the 2023 draft had 17 sacks combined in his first two seasons. Cornerback Derek Stingley returns to lead a talented young secondary after earning first team AP All-Pro honors last season when he had five interceptions and defended 18 passes.
OC Nick Caley, WR Jayden Higgins, WR Christian Kirk, WR Jaylin Noel, LT Cam Robinson, RB Nick Chubb, RT Aireontae Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews.
LT Laremy Tunsil, WR John Metchie III, G Kenyon Green, TE Brevin Jordan, CB Eric Murray, WR Robert Woods, CB Kris Boyd.
Stroud and Houston’s stacked receiving group should be the stars of the team this season. The 2023 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has been great in his first two seasons to bring the Texans back into contention after an awful stretch. His interception rate was up last season but he’s looking for improvement this season in Caley’s offense, which he has described as “exciting.” He’ll have plenty of strong targets to throw to, led by Collins, who had a second straight 1,000-yard season last year despite missing five games with injuries. He’ll be joined by Kirk, who should fill in at the slot with Tank Dell likely to miss all season recovering from an injury he suffered in December. Higgins and Noel come to Houston after combining for 2,377 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns last season at Iowa State.
It’s hard to see how the offensive line will be improved this season with Tunsil gone to Washington. Though he was penalty-prone, he was the team’s most consistent lineman. They completely revamped the line after his trade and return just one starter from last year’s group. They’ll likely rely on rookie Ersery to protect Stroud’s blind side after taking him in the second round of the draft. He started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota. Veteran Tytus Howard returns at right tackle after starting 16 games there last season. The center is Jake Andrews in his first year in Houston and he returns after missing all of last season with an injury before being released by the Patriots. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and right guard Ed Ingram are also new to the team.
Houston’s secondary sustained a big blow in camp when safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered a leg injury. The injury isn’t season-ending but he is likely to miss significant time. Gardner-Johnson is in his first year in Houston after he was acquired from the Eagles in March in exchange for left guard Kenyon Green. He was expected to be the team’s starting free safety after the Texans lost Eric Murray in free agency to the Jaguars. The Texans will also be without backup Jimmie Ward indefinitely after he was placed on the commissioner exempt list Tuesday as he faces a felony domestic violence charge after a June arrest.
Collins should have another big year after finishing with more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. He’s had 15 touchdowns combined in the last two seasons despite missing seven games with injuries.
Win Super Bowl: 35-1.