THE PALLILOG
Here's what must change for Texans to steal a signature playoff win over mighty Chiefs
Jan 15, 2025, 9:50 pm
The Chiefs are favored by nine points. Composite Getty Image.
If you are a believer in the third time is a charm, go ahead and book the Texans for their first ever appearance in the AFC Championship game! Saturday is the Texans’ third crack at the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Of course, the Texans had a third time is the charm opportunity at advancing beyond the division round back in 2016 and came nowhere close. Charm will have nothing to do with the outcome at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have administered the Texans’ two most humiliating postseason defeats in franchise history. They came as the bookend postseason appearances of Bill O’Brien’s tenure as head coach. In 2015, the Texans won the worst division in the AFC (that sounds familiar) but as a division champ got to play host to the Wild Card 11-5 Chiefs. The visitors were three-point favorites. They won by 30. 30-0 to be more precise. Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff 106 yards for a touchdown. It would have been in the Texans’ best interest to have forfeited right then and there. In what was not exactly a shocking development, Texans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn’t up to the task, throwing for just 112 yards and four interceptions. On the Chiefs’ side third-year tight end Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 128 yards. Taylor Swift was not in attendance.
The second Texans-Chiefs playoff get together is the most incredible game in Texans’ history. The Texans showed up in Missouri fresh off the greatest comeback win in their history, having come from down 16-0 in the third quarter to best the Buffalo Bills in overtime. In what could safely be characterized as stunning, the Texans put up three first quarter touchdowns for a 21-0 lead. *Massive bonus points if you can name the three Texans who scored those TDs, answer below. A field goal made it 24-0 Texans with 10:54 left in the second quarter. In a collapse tough to pull off, the Texans would trail before halftime. The Chiefs scored four touchdowns in nine minutes and eleven seconds of game time, with that Kelce fellow scoring the last three of them. Some will recall O’Brien calling a fake punt from his own 31-yard line with the Texans up 24-7. Too soon? Justin Reid (now pursuing his third Super Bowl ring in three seasons as a Chief) was stopped short. An even more damning O’Brien moment came later in that game when he actually had to use a timeout to change his mind and go for it with 11:49 left in the fourth quarter, the Texans down 48-31, and facing fourth and four at the K.C. 42. That was a fire-able on the spot offense! Instead it took an 0-4 start to the 2020 season for O’Brien to be ousted. 51-31 Chiefs was the final score, and they went on to win the first of their three Super Bowl titles in the ongoing Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.
Back to the present
Those routs were then, this is now. For a 15-2 team the Chiefs seem vulnerable. Maximum credit to them for having won an NFL record 16 consecutive games decided by eight or fewer points, 11 of them this season including their 27-19 victory over the Texans December 21. Perhaps the two-time defending champions were often bored with the regular season and often did just enough to win. The Texans would have been tied with them late in the third quarter had Ka’imi Fairbairn not botched an extra point. On the other hand, it was the play that got them within 17-16 which resulted in Tank Dell’s catastrophic season-ending knee injury. Who besides Nico Collins will do something in the passing game Saturday? Last Saturday the Texans’ pass rush harassed and flustered Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert. Mahomes is a different breed. Four weeks ago the Texans sacked Mahomes just once and did not intercept him. That seemingly must change for the Texans to pull off what be a shocker for most people. Saturday’s high temperature forecast for Kansas City is 25 degrees. Not ideal for the Texans but better than if the game had been scheduled for Sunday when the high is supposed to be 16.
Still standing
Four Texans who dressed for the debacle five years ago will suit up against the Chiefs Saturday: Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard who were in their first season with the team, Fairbairn, and long snapper Jon Weeks. Granted he’s just a long snapper (important role but not physically taxing), but Weeks is in his 15th season with the Texans and has yet to miss a game-244 regular season games (with Saturday his 14th playoff game, also without a miss). Presuming he is back next season, Weeks (who turns 39 next month) can crack the top five list of most consecutive games played in NFL history by answering the bell in the first 12 regular season games.
*The Texans’ three early TDS in the 51-31 loss at KC: 1. Kenny Stills with a 54-yard reception 2. Lonnie Johnson with a 10-yard return of a blocked punt 3. Darren Fells with a four-yard grab
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
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Looking for an inspiring underdog or a glass slipper lying around in San Antonio? This year's version of the Final Four is not for you.
Fittingly for an NCAA Tournament in which big schools from big conferences took record numbers of spots in the first week, then hogged them all for the Sweet 16, the last week will bring a collection of all four teams seeded No. 1 to the sport's biggest stage to play for the title.
When Florida meets Auburn in an all-Southeastern Conference clash and Duke faces Houston in a meeting between the Atlantic Coast and Big 12 conferences, it will mark only the second time since seeding began in 1979 that all four No. 1s have made it to the final weekend.
The last time it happened, in 2008, one of the teams was Memphis, which hailed from Conference USA.
This time around, there are no mid-majors or small majors. Only the best teams from the best conferences — except the Big Ten, which will hasn't had a team win it all since 2000 — who also have the nation's best players.
Here's a look at the best player on each team (for Auburn, Duke and Florida, they are AP All-Americans ), along with another who might make an impact in San Antonio once the games start Saturday.
Johni Broome and Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn
Broome hit his elbow hard in the second half of the Tigers' 70-64 win over Michigan State. He left the court, but then came back, saying team doctors told him there was nothing wrong. He averages 18 points and nearly 11 rebounds and had 20-10 games in both wins this week. Clearly, his health will be a storyline.
If NBA scouts only look at backup guard Pettiford's tournament, where he has averaged 17.2 points and sparked Auburn on a huge run in the Sweet 16 win against Michigan, they'd pick him in the first round. If they look at his overall body of work, they might say he still needs work. Either way, he could be a difference-maker over two games.
Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach, Duke
There are times — see the 30-point, seven-rebound, six-assist skills clinic against BYU — when Flagg just looks like he's toying with everyone. There are other times — see Saturday's win over Alabama — when he looks human. Which is more than enough, considering all the talent surrounding him.
Maluach is 7-foot-2 and has a standing reach of 9-8. If any opponent overplays him, they can expect a lob for an alley-oop dunk. He shot 12 for 15 over Sweet 16 weekend, and pretty much all the shots were from 4 feet or closer.
Walter Clayton Jr. and Will Richard, Florida
Clayton made the tying and go-ahead 3s in Florida's ferocious comeback against Texas Tech. He finished with 30 points and his coach, Todd Golden, said, “There’s not another player in America you would rather have right now than Walter Clayton with the ball in his hands in a big-time moment.”
During one two-game stretch in February, Richard had two points in one contest and 21 the next. During another, he scored zero, then 30. Fill in the blanks here, but he could be a big factor for the Gators either way.
Joseph Tugler and L.J. Cryer, Houston
Fittingly for the team with the nation's best defense, a player who only averages 5.5 points could be the most valuable for the Cougars. Tugler is on everyone's all-defense list, and for Houston to have any chance at stopping Flagg, it'll have to figure out ways to use Tugler to do it.
Cryer is Houston's leading scorer at 15.2 points a game. If the Cougars end up as national champs, it will have to be because he played the two best games of his life.