Here's what must change for Texans to steal a signature playoff win over mighty Chiefs

Here's what must change for Texans to steal a signature playoff win over mighty Chiefs
The Chiefs are favored by nine points. Composite Getty Image.

If you are a believer in the third time is a charm, go ahead and book the Texans for their first ever appearance in the AFC Championship game! Saturday is the Texans’ third crack at the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Of course, the Texans had a third time is the charm opportunity at advancing beyond the division round back in 2016 and came nowhere close. Charm will have nothing to do with the outcome at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs have administered the Texans’ two most humiliating postseason defeats in franchise history. They came as the bookend postseason appearances of Bill O’Brien’s tenure as head coach. In 2015, the Texans won the worst division in the AFC (that sounds familiar) but as a division champ got to play host to the Wild Card 11-5 Chiefs. The visitors were three-point favorites. They won by 30. 30-0 to be more precise. Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff 106 yards for a touchdown. It would have been in the Texans’ best interest to have forfeited right then and there. In what was not exactly a shocking development, Texans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn’t up to the task, throwing for just 112 yards and four interceptions. On the Chiefs’ side third-year tight end Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 128 yards. Taylor Swift was not in attendance.

The second Texans-Chiefs playoff get together is the most incredible game in Texans’ history. The Texans showed up in Missouri fresh off the greatest comeback win in their history, having come from down 16-0 in the third quarter to best the Buffalo Bills in overtime. In what could safely be characterized as stunning, the Texans put up three first quarter touchdowns for a 21-0 lead. *Massive bonus points if you can name the three Texans who scored those TDs, answer below. A field goal made it 24-0 Texans with 10:54 left in the second quarter. In a collapse tough to pull off, the Texans would trail before halftime. The Chiefs scored four touchdowns in nine minutes and eleven seconds of game time, with that Kelce fellow scoring the last three of them. Some will recall O’Brien calling a fake punt from his own 31-yard line with the Texans up 24-7. Too soon? Justin Reid (now pursuing his third Super Bowl ring in three seasons as a Chief) was stopped short. An even more damning O’Brien moment came later in that game when he actually had to use a timeout to change his mind and go for it with 11:49 left in the fourth quarter, the Texans down 48-31, and facing fourth and four at the K.C. 42. That was a fire-able on the spot offense! Instead it took an 0-4 start to the 2020 season for O’Brien to be ousted. 51-31 Chiefs was the final score, and they went on to win the first of their three Super Bowl titles in the ongoing Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.

Back to the present

Those routs were then, this is now. For a 15-2 team the Chiefs seem vulnerable. Maximum credit to them for having won an NFL record 16 consecutive games decided by eight or fewer points, 11 of them this season including their 27-19 victory over the Texans December 21. Perhaps the two-time defending champions were often bored with the regular season and often did just enough to win. The Texans would have been tied with them late in the third quarter had Ka’imi Fairbairn not botched an extra point. On the other hand, it was the play that got them within 17-16 which resulted in Tank Dell’s catastrophic season-ending knee injury. Who besides Nico Collins will do something in the passing game Saturday? Last Saturday the Texans’ pass rush harassed and flustered Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert. Mahomes is a different breed. Four weeks ago the Texans sacked Mahomes just once and did not intercept him. That seemingly must change for the Texans to pull off what be a shocker for most people. Saturday’s high temperature forecast for Kansas City is 25 degrees. Not ideal for the Texans but better than if the game had been scheduled for Sunday when the high is supposed to be 16.

Still standing

Four Texans who dressed for the debacle five years ago will suit up against the Chiefs Saturday: Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard who were in their first season with the team, Fairbairn, and long snapper Jon Weeks. Granted he’s just a long snapper (important role but not physically taxing), but Weeks is in his 15th season with the Texans and has yet to miss a game-244 regular season games (with Saturday his 14th playoff game, also without a miss). Presuming he is back next season, Weeks (who turns 39 next month) can crack the top five list of most consecutive games played in NFL history by answering the bell in the first 12 regular season games.

*The Texans’ three early TDS in the 51-31 loss at KC: 1. Kenny Stills a 54-yard reception 2. Lonnie Johnson with a 10-yard return of a blocked punt 3. Darren Fells with a four-yard grab

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!

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Quinn Ewers is headed to the NFL. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

Texas junior quarterback Quinn Ewers declared for the NFL draft on Wednesday, ending a Longhorns career in which he led the program to a Big 12 championship and twice to the College Football Playoff but was not always embraced by a fan base eagerly waiting for Arch Manning to take over.

Ewers passed for 9,128 yards and 68 touchdowns in a career that few Texas quarterbacks can match. He had hinted before the season ended that it would be his last in college.

“These past three years have been some of the best years I could have imagined,” Ewers said in social media post announcing his decision. “The relationships I've built between coaches and teammates will last forever.”

His 27 career wins rank fourth as a starting quarterback at Texas, and he led the Longhorns to their first Big 12 title in 14 years in 2023 before the program moved to the Southeastern Conference. In their first season in the SEC, the Longhorns rose to their first No. 1 ranking since 2008 and played in the league championship game.

Ewers' biggest legacy will be leading the program to the playoff semifinals in consecutive years, though it fell short of the championship game. He had a fumble on a sack that led to a game-clinching touchdown for Ohio State on Jan. 10 in the Cotton Bowl.

Ewers' career

Ewers, who grew up in the Dallas suburbs, was the top-rated high school quarterback in the country when he signed with Ohio State and left school early to the join the Buckeyes for the 2021 season. But after one season spent deep on the Ohio State depth chart, Ewers transferred to Texas, which had just finished 5-7 in coach Steve Sarkisian's first season.

He was the starter by the season opener in 2022 and led the team through seasons of 8-5, 12-2 and 13-3 records. But he was dogged by various shoulder, abdomen and ankle injuries and missed at least two games each season. An abdomen strain this season allowed Manning to start twice and earn the program's first SEC win, which came against Mississippi State.

Make way for Manning

Ewers' departure sets the stage for Manning to take over in 2025.

The son of Cooper Manning, the grandson of former NFL quarterback Archie Manning and the nephew of Super Bowl-winning QBs Peyton and Eli Manning passed for 939 yards and nine touchdowns and ran for four TDs this season but has seen only limited playing time since September.

Texas fans have been eagerly awaiting his chance to be the full-time starter. Manning will get it with a rebuilt offense.

Top receivers Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond have declared for the draft and senior tight end Gunnar Helm completed his eligibility. Running back Jaydon Blue, who scored a team-high 14 touchdowns including four in the playoffs, and starting tackles Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cam Williams also left for the NFL.

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