KEYS TO VICTORY
4 important elements that could tip the scales in Texans-Colts matchup
Oct 25, 2024, 2:30 pm
Will CJ Stroud and the Texans bounce back against the Colts? Composite Getty Image.
The Houston Texans aren’t concerned about C.J. Stroud after the quarterback had the worst statistical game of his young career in a loss at Green Bay last week.
They have no doubt he’ll bounce back Sunday when the AFC South-leading Texans (5-2) host second-place Indianapolis (4-3), where they’ll try to sweep the season series for just the second time in franchise history.
“C.J. handles adversity really well because he’s really grounded ... and it doesn’t dictate who he is or change his personality and what he’s about,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “So, I’m excited to see how, not only C.J., but how everyone responds after losing a game.”
Stroud, in his second year, had a career-low 86 yards passing and didn’t throw a touchdown pass for the first time this season as the Packers beat Houston 24-22 to snap a three-game winning streak.
Instead of dwelling on his bad game, Stroud is using it as a learning experience.
“Not everything goes your way and it is all about how you respond,” he said. “For me, I just watch the film, be critical on myself and just get better from there.”
Indianapolis quarterback Anthony Richardson also had a tough game last week against Miami in his return after missing almost three full games with an injured right hip, He completed just 41.7% of his passes for 129 yards.
But the good news for the Colts is that they won despite his struggles after the second-year pro led them to two fourth quarter field goals in the 16-10 victory.
Coach Shane Steichen said it’s important to remember that Richardson still doesn’t have much NFL experience because of all the games he has missed with injuries.
“We’re just trying to look for growth week in and week out,” he said. “I think he’s played nine games in the NFL now and going into another one with an opponent that he’s went against, so it’s good. He’s seeing some familiar faces. So, excited for Sunday for him.”
Mixon's work
Houston running back Joe Mixon has had at least 100 yards rushing in each of the three full games he has played this season. But his best game this season came in a win over the Colts in the season opener.
Mixon was named AFC offensive player of the week after carrying the ball a career-high 30 times for 159 yards and a touchdown in the 29-27 victory. Of his 159 yards, 101 came after contact.
Now he’ll face the Colts again after they gave up 188 yards rushing last week to the Dolphins. Indianapolis ranks second to last in the NFL by allowing 159.9 yards rushing a game.
Indianapolis defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said the addition of Mixon, a former Bengal, has boosted Houston’s offense.
“What’s made them even more complete is their run game. Now they can run the ball,” he said. “Joe Mixon is a great back and someone you’ve got to be aware of in the run game."
Taylor made
All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor missed Indy’s last three games with a sprained ankle, but barring a setback later this week it appears he’ll play Sunday.
The first indication came Wednesday when Taylor was a full participant in Indy’s practice after missing every workout for the past three weeks. What will it mean for the Colts to have one of their top playmakers back on the field?
“It will be huge,” Steichen said. “Obviously, we know what JT brings to the table and Goodie (Tyler Goodson) and Trey (Sermon) did a hell of a job, but getting JT back in the fold will be big.”
Pro Bowl pickup
Linebacker Devin White, who made the Pro Bowl in 2021, joined the Texans this week and Ryans said he could help against the Colts.
White signed a one-year contract with the Eagles this offseason, but didn’t play before being released earlier this month. He was inactive for the first four games and then ruled out of the fifth game because of personal reasons before his release.
White was the fifth overall pick in the 2019 draft and spent five seasons with the Buccaneers before signing with the Eagles. Ryans isn’t worried about why things didn’t work out for him in Philadelphia and is looking forward to seeing him bounce back in Houston.
“He went top 10 in the draft, he was an exceptional talent,” Ryans said. “So, what happened and why he’s here, no one knows. Life happens to us all. You just have to keep punching, keep attacking each day with the right mindset and the opportunity for Devin is to come in here and compete.”
Close calls
The Colts lost their last two meetings with Houston by two and four points, both in Indianapolis. But one thing Steichen’s team has excelled at in his first 24 games as coach is winning close contests.
Indy is 11-6 in one-score games during Steichen’s tenure with every game this season decided by six or fewer points. The secret to Indy’s success is simple — they limit both penalties and turnovers.
“You want to play smart football, I think that’s part of it,” Steichen said. “You’ve got to preach that, but you’ve got to go do it. You’ve got to be disciplined, and it happens on the practice field. You’ve got to correct it on the practice field. And I think finding ways to finish and really having that relentless pursuit at the end of games to finish those games.”
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Miami (6-7) at Houston (8-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EST, CBS
BetMGM Odds: Texans by 3.
Against the spread: Dolphins 5-8; Texans 5-6-2.
Series record: Texans lead 8-3.
Last meeting: Dolphins beat Texans 30-15, on Nov. 27, 2022, in Miami.
Last week: Dolphins beat Jets 32-26 in OT; Texans were off, beat Jaguars 23-20 on Dec. 1.
Dolphins offense: overall (19), rush (24), pass (14), scoring (23).
Dolphins defense: overall (9), rush (7), pass (11), scoring (T14).
Texans offense: overall (18), rush (16), pass (17), scoring (11).
Texans defense: overall (5), rush (10), pass (7), scoring (T12).
Turnover differential: Dolphins minus-2; Texans plus-10.
Dolphins player to watch
QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL at throwing with anticipation and accuracy since he returned from a concussion in Week 8. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with a 73.8% completion rate and threw for 300 yards for the third straight game last week vs. the Jets. Tagovailoa is the first player in NFL history to have at least 40 pass attempts, multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions in three consecutive games within a single season.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud has thrown for at least 225 yards in each of his six home games this season and is 11-4 in 15 starts in Houston, including the playoffs. He has thrown for 3,117 yards with 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions this season.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. Miami’s run defense. Mixon ran for 101 yards in Houston’s previous game for his seventh 100-yard game this season. He ranks third in the NFL by averaging 88.7 yards rushing a game. This week he’ll face a run defense that ranks seventh in the NFL by holding teams to 105.6 yards a game.
Key injuries
Miami LT Terron Armstead is dealing with a knee injury that limited him to just five snaps last week. He did not practice Wednesday… LBs Bradley Chubb (knee) and Cameron Goode (knee) could make their season debut, depending on how this week of practice goes, coach Mike McDaniel said. … WRs Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Jaylen Waddle (hamstring), RB Raheem Mostert (hip), and LB Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) were among those limited in practice Wednesday. … Houston S Jalen Pitre is expected to miss a second straight game with a shoulder injury. … DE Denico Autry was limited in practice Wednesday because of a knee injury.
Series notes
Houston won the first seven meetings in this series. … Miami didn’t get its first win against the Texans until a 44-26 victory in 2015. … The Dolphins have won the past two meetings. … These teams first met in the season opener in 2003 when Houston got a 21-20 win on a late field goal.
Stats and stuff
Three of Miami’s final four games of the season are on the road. … K Jason Sanders needs 13 points Sunday to reach 800. He also needs one field goal to reach 177, which would give him the second-most field goals made in franchise history. … TE Jonnu Smith needs 100 yards receiving to reach 792 and set a franchise record for most yards receiving by a tight end in a single season. Smith had three catches for 44 yards, including the game-winning TD vs. the Jets last week after having no receptions during regulation. … Tagovailoa needs a completion rate of 70% or better on Sunday to reach eight consecutive games completing at least 70% of his passes. That would tie him with Joe Montana (1989) and Drew Brees (2017-18) for the longest streak in NFL history. … The Dolphins gave up a season-high 402 yards to the Jets last week. Aaron Rodgers burned Miami’s pass defense for 319 yards, and Miami’s secondary allowed a combined 223 yards by Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams. … Houston can clinch the AFC South title for the second straight year with a win and a loss by Indianapolis Sunday. … The Texans rank second in the NFL with 84 tackles for loss. … Their 42 sacks also rank second. … WR Nico Collins had eight receptions for 119 yards for his fourth 100-yard game this season in Houston’s previous game. He has had at least 75 yards receiving and a TD reception in each of his four home games this season. … TE Dalton Schultz had five receptions for 61 yards and a score in Week 13. He has had at least five catches in two of his past three games. … LB Azeez Al-Shaai will serve the first game of a three-game suspension for an illegal hit to the head of QB Trevor Lawrence Sunday. … DE Danielle Hunter is one of two players in the NFL this season with at least 15 tackles for loss (15) and 10 sacks (10 1/2). It’s his sixth career season with at least 10 sacks. He has eight tackles for loss and five sacks combined in his past three games. … DE Will Anderson has had a sack in his past two home games. … LB Henry To’oTo’o has had at least five tackles in four straight games. … CB Derek Stingley had his third interception of the season in his previous game. … CB Kamari Lassiter had a career-high eight tackles, including a tackle for loss in Week 13. … S Jimmie Ward has had an interception in his past two home games. He also had an interception in his previous game against Miami in 2022 while with San Francisco.
Fantasy tip
Collins has 456 yards receiving and four touchdown receptions in four home games this season.