Life can be funny. The last time the Texans played at Indianapolis it was thought of as a “must lose” game so the Texans would clinch having the first pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Lovie Smith screwed things up by having the Texans go for and make a last minute game-winning two point conversion to beat the Colts 32-31, gifting the first choice to the Chicago Bears. Oh, the outrage! The Texans couldn’t pick Bryce Young so opted for C.J. Stroud. As it turns out, while a Lovie statue outside NRG Stadium would be a bit much, sending him flowers and a huge box of chocolates would be a thoughtful gesture. One year minus two days later the Texans are back in “Naptown” for a must win game that can earn a first playoff spot since 2019. If they win and the Jaguars choke at Tennessee giving the Texans the AFC South and with it a home playoff game, both parties could show quite a sense of humor if the Texans welcome back Lovie as an honorary team captain for the game.

Back in September it was week two of the regular season when the Colts slapped the Texans at NRG Stadium. The most relevant point about that game now is that had the Texans won it with nothing else differently having occurred since, the Texans would have a playoff spot clinched. Instead it’s win in Indianapolis Saturday night to secure at least a Wild Card, or lose and come up short to end what would still go down as a successful season. This does not mean the Texans are playing with house money in Indy. The NFL is built for turnarounds like the Texans have enjoyed this season. Plenty of them end with a playoff berth. Just last season Jacksonville won the AFC South after a 3-14 embarrassment the year before. And it’s not as if the Texans have to take down the ’72 Dolphins or ’85 Bears to get it done.

DeMeco Ryans has had an outstanding first season as a head coach. But the Texans have to win Saturday or Ryans isn’t even the AFC South Coach of the Year, much less the NFL’s top coach for the 2023 season. The Colts went 4-12-1 last season leading to their hiring of Eagles’ offensive coordinator Shane Steichen as head coach. The Colts tethered much of their hope to rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, much as the Texans did to C.J. Stroud. Richardson lasted just four games before needing season ending shoulder surgery. Colts’ star running back Jonathan Taylor was a contract holdout into October.

As Ryans put it this week, the Texans and Colts are completely different teams from what they were more than three and a half months ago. Hence, a couple of the reasons the Colts dominated the Texans should not be unduly feared in the rematch, though if they repeat the Texans will be unlikely to be preparing for a playoff game next week. The Colts sacked Stroud six times while the Texans never sacked Richardson (though he did leave injured) or Gardner Minshew. Indy does have four defensive linemen with at least seven sacks, end Samson Ebukam topping the list with nine and a half. The Texans have amassed 14 sacks over their last three games but 13 of them came against hapless Tennessee. Getting back Jonathan Greenard to bookend the pass rush with Will Anderson would have been a welcomed boost, but he's been ruled out. However, it appears they could have Maliek Collins at d-tackle alongside Sheldon Rankins.

At this point in the season more players are dinged up one way or another than not, but it is notable that the Colts’ three best offensive lineman are on the ding list. Center Ryan Kelly and guard Quenton Nelson turned ankles last week while tackle Braden Smith played for the first time since missing three games with a knee injury.

A good running game is one way to inhibit an opponent’s pass rush. The Texans’ ground attack was inept in the first meeting, but that was when Devin Singletary was an afterthought. Dameon Pierce mustered just 31 yards on 15 carries. Check my math, that’s barely two yards per crack. Feeble. Singletary has averaged at least four and a half yards per pop in each of the Texans’ last five games.

Special teams are always an X-factor. The season track record favors the Texans. Ka’imi Fairbairn has missed just one of 27 field goal attempts. That miss (from 51 yards out) ended any hopes of a Texans’ comeback in the loss to the Colts. Veteran Matt Gay is solid for Indy, but has made just three of his last seven tries from 50-plus. Over their last four games the Colts have muffed a punt, had a punt blocked, committed a roughing the punter penalty, and jumped offside to negate a missed field goal.

Lucas Oil Stadium is not one of the more daunting places to be a road team in the NFL. The Colts are 4-4 at home this season, though have won their last three there.

If such odds were available, what kind of payoff would be in play this weekend for anyone who parlayed the Texans making the playoffs with the Buffalo Bills missing them?