THE PALLILOG
Houston Texans X-factors that could swing the pendulum in clash with Colts
Jan 4, 2024, 3:39 pm
It's win or go home for the Texans. Composite Getty Image.
Life can be funny. The last time the Texans played at Indianapolis it was thought of as a “must lose” game so the Texans would clinch having the first pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Lovie Smith screwed things up by having the Texans go for and make a last minute game-winning two point conversion to beat the Colts 32-31, gifting the first choice to the Chicago Bears. Oh, the outrage! The Texans couldn’t pick Bryce Young so opted for C.J. Stroud. As it turns out, while a Lovie statue outside NRG Stadium would be a bit much, sending him flowers and a huge box of chocolates would be a thoughtful gesture. One year minus two days later the Texans are back in “Naptown” for a must win game that can earn a first playoff spot since 2019. If they win and the Jaguars choke at Tennessee giving the Texans the AFC South and with it a home playoff game, both parties could show quite a sense of humor if the Texans welcome back Lovie as an honorary team captain for the game.
Back in September it was week two of the regular season when the Colts slapped the Texans at NRG Stadium. The most relevant point about that game now is that had the Texans won it with nothing else differently having occurred since, the Texans would have a playoff spot clinched. Instead it’s win in Indianapolis Saturday night to secure at least a Wild Card, or lose and come up short to end what would still go down as a successful season. This does not mean the Texans are playing with house money in Indy. The NFL is built for turnarounds like the Texans have enjoyed this season. Plenty of them end with a playoff berth. Just last season Jacksonville won the AFC South after a 3-14 embarrassment the year before. And it’s not as if the Texans have to take down the ’72 Dolphins or ’85 Bears to get it done.
DeMeco Ryans has had an outstanding first season as a head coach. But the Texans have to win Saturday or Ryans isn’t even the AFC South Coach of the Year, much less the NFL’s top coach for the 2023 season. The Colts went 4-12-1 last season leading to their hiring of Eagles’ offensive coordinator Shane Steichen as head coach. The Colts tethered much of their hope to rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, much as the Texans did to C.J. Stroud. Richardson lasted just four games before needing season ending shoulder surgery. Colts’ star running back Jonathan Taylor was a contract holdout into October.
As Ryans put it this week, the Texans and Colts are completely different teams from what they were more than three and a half months ago. Hence, a couple of the reasons the Colts dominated the Texans should not be unduly feared in the rematch, though if they repeat the Texans will be unlikely to be preparing for a playoff game next week. The Colts sacked Stroud six times while the Texans never sacked Richardson (though he did leave injured) or Gardner Minshew. Indy does have four defensive linemen with at least seven sacks, end Samson Ebukam topping the list with nine and a half. The Texans have amassed 14 sacks over their last three games but 13 of them came against hapless Tennessee. Getting back Jonathan Greenard to bookend the pass rush with Will Anderson would have been a welcomed boost, but he's been ruled out. However, it appears they could have Maliek Collins at d-tackle alongside Sheldon Rankins.
Thursday’s Injury Report for #HOUvsIND ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/YbUO6zqUDw
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 4, 2024
At this point in the season more players are dinged up one way or another than not, but it is notable that the Colts’ three best offensive lineman are on the ding list. Center Ryan Kelly and guard Quenton Nelson turned ankles last week while tackle Braden Smith played for the first time since missing three games with a knee injury.
A good running game is one way to inhibit an opponent’s pass rush. The Texans’ ground attack was inept in the first meeting, but that was when Devin Singletary was an afterthought. Dameon Pierce mustered just 31 yards on 15 carries. Check my math, that’s barely two yards per crack. Feeble. Singletary has averaged at least four and a half yards per pop in each of the Texans’ last five games.
Special teams are always an X-factor. The season track record favors the Texans. Ka’imi Fairbairn has missed just one of 27 field goal attempts. That miss (from 51 yards out) ended any hopes of a Texans’ comeback in the loss to the Colts. Veteran Matt Gay is solid for Indy, but has made just three of his last seven tries from 50-plus. Over their last four games the Colts have muffed a punt, had a punt blocked, committed a roughing the punter penalty, and jumped offside to negate a missed field goal.
Lucas Oil Stadium is not one of the more daunting places to be a road team in the NFL. The Colts are 4-4 at home this season, though have won their last three there.
If such odds were available, what kind of payoff would be in play this weekend for anyone who parlayed the Texans making the playoffs with the Buffalo Bills missing them?
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
It’s May 1, and the Astros are turning heads—but not for the reasons anyone expected. Their resurgence, driven not by stars like Yordan Alvarez or Christian Walker, but by a cast of less-heralded names, is writing a strange and telling early-season story.
Christian Walker, brought in to add middle-of-the-order thump, has yet to resemble the feared hitter he was in Arizona. Forget the narrative of a slow starter—he’s never looked like this in April. Through March and April of 2025, he’s slashing a worrying .196/.277/.355 with a .632 OPS. Compare that to the same stretch in 2024, when he posted a .283 average, .496 slug, and a robust .890 OPS, and it becomes clear: this is something more than rust. Even in 2023, his April numbers (.248/.714 OPS) looked steadier.
What’s more troubling than the overall dip is when it’s happening. Walker is faltering in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, he’s hitting just .143 over 33 plate appearances, including 15 strikeouts. The struggles get even more glaring with two outs—.125 average, .188 slugging, and a .451 OPS in 19 such plate appearances. In “late and close” situations, when the pressure’s highest, he’s practically disappeared: 1-for-18 with a .056 average and a .167 OPS.
His patience has waned (only 9 walks so far, compared to 20 by this time last year), and for now, his presence in the lineup feels more like a placeholder than a pillar.
The contrast couldn’t be clearer when you look at José Altuve—long the engine of this franchise—who, in 2024, delivered in the moments Walker is now missing. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Altuve hit .275 with an .888 OPS. In late and close situations, he thrived with a .314 average and .854 OPS. That kind of situational excellence is missing from this 2025 squad—but someone else may yet step into that role.
And yet—the Astros are winning. Not because of Walker, but in spite of him.
Houston’s offense, in general, hasn’t lit up the leaderboard. Their team OPS ranks 23rd (.667), their slugging 25th (.357), and they sit just 22nd in runs scored (117). They’re 26th in doubles, a rare place for a team built on gap-to-gap damage.
But where there’s been light, it hasn’t come from the usual spots. Jeremy Peña, often overshadowed in a lineup full of stars, now boasts the team’s highest OPS at .791 (Isaac Paredes is second in OPS) and is flourishing in his new role as the leadoff hitter. Peña’s balance of speed, contact, aggression, and timely power has given Houston a surprising tone-setter at the top.
Even more surprising: four Astros currently have more home runs than Yordan Alvarez.
And then there’s the pitching—Houston’s anchor. The rotation and bullpen have been elite, ranking 5th in ERA (3.23), 1st in WHIP (1.08), and 4th in batting average against (.212). In a season where offense is lagging and clutch hits are rare, the arms have made all the difference.
For now, it’s the unexpected contributors keeping Houston afloat. Peña’s emergence. A rock-solid pitching staff. Role players stepping up in quiet but crucial ways. They’re not dominating, but they’re grinding—and in a sluggish AL West, that may be enough.
Walker still has time to find his swing. He showed some signs of life against Toronto and Detroit. If he does, the Astros could become dangerous. If he doesn’t, the turnaround we’re witnessing will be credited to a new cast of unlikely faces. And maybe, that’s the story that needed to be written.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
___________________________
Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!