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Here's how the season could play out for these 5 pivotal Houston Texans
Sep 5, 2023, 4:56 pm
Could Tank Dell record over 1,000 yards as a rookie? Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images.
How the Houston Texans may have caught lightning in a bottle
The cuts have been made. The roster is still being shaped by the front office and scouting department. The main players are in place. The coaching staff is hard at work prepping game plans for week one against the Baltimore Ravens. The players are studying film and perfecting their crafts. Opponents are probably licking their chops looking at this team.
I think the over on 6.5 wins this season may be a stretch. If they reach seven wins, it'll be because they won some games most didn't think they could win. My expectations are much higher than the previous few seasons. One thing for sure, this team will be a LOT more exciting to watch. Here are some of my statistical forecasts for a few pivotal players:
C.J. Stroud: 3,417 yards; 23 touchdowns; 11 interceptions- I think Stroud will benefit this year from a good run game. Pass protection may be shaky to start with injuries, but I think the offensive line will get better as the season progresses. Averaging just over 200 yards per game isn't outrageous. I feel he'll stay at or just above a 2:1 TD to pick ratio. While not ideal, it's better than some Hall of Fame QBs did in their rookie seasons. It would rank him in PFF's top 10 all time rookie QB seasons if he's at or around 65% completion percentage.
Tank Dell: 68 catches, 1,105 yards and 6 touchdowns- Dell will be a really good slot, but has some outside skills. Namely, his speed. He's more slippery than if Mick had greased that chicken before Rocky tried catching it. I could see his production going up as the season gets longer because Stroud will begin to look for him more and more as they build chemistry. Yes, I know I only have him with six scores. Keep in mind this is a run first offense. At least that's what we can deduce from looking at where it came from in San Francisco. Speaking of run first…
Damien Pierce: 1,388 yards on 322 carries with 362 receiving yards on 44 catches and 18 total touchdowns- Pierce will be the focal point of the offense. He averaged 4.3 yards per carry last season, so I can see him hitting around that mark again. Difference is, this season, he'll get more carries and have more receptions. This will lead to much more production.
Jalen Pitre: 131 tackles, 6 picks, 4 forced fumbles, 2 fumbles recoveries, 2 defensive touchdowns- While he'll have less tackles, look for an uptick in his playmaking. Jalen will have better guys in front of him, which will take away from his tackle production. That's why I think he'll make more plays. Bottom line, he'll be an All-Pro this year, like he should have been last year!
Will Anderson Jr: 79 tackles, 11.5 sacks, 18 TFLs, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries- I'm trying to be modest here. This guy reminds me of the prototypical edge rushers of today's game. A long, lean frame that converts his speed into power and has a lightening quick get off when the ball is snapped. Teams will need to account for him on every play. Discount him as a run stuffer if you want, and you'll be sorry. First Team All Rookie Defense is a lock! DROY? I wouldn't be shocked since he's the second betting favorite.
This was just me and my brain trying to figure out what some prominent players will look like statistically at season's end. I took it as they're going to play all 17 games. I didn't use any cheat sheets or any projections. My search history is more college football, car parts, and Amazon purchases (I blame JDG; this person knows who they are). I can't wait to see how accurate or inaccurate I am.
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Astros keep doing this, and it’s getting hard to ignore
Jun 25, 2025, 10:01 pm
While the rolling Astros have a week of possible World Series preview matchups against the Phillies and Cubs, it’s the Rockets who made the biggest local sports headline with their acquisition of Kevin Durant. What a move! Of course there is risk involved in trading for a guy soon to turn 37 years old and who carries an injury history, but balancing risk vs. reward is a part of the game. This is a fabulous move for the Rockets. It’s understood that there are dissenters to this view. Everyone is entitled to an opinion, including people with the wrong opinion! Let’s dig in.
The Rockets had a wonderful season in winning 52 games before their disappointing first-round playoff loss to the Warriors, but like everyone else in the Western Conference, they were nowhere close to Oklahoma City’s caliber. While they finished second in the West, the Rockets only finished four games ahead of the play-in. That letting the stew simmer with further growth among their young players would yield true championship contention was no given for 2025-26 or beyond.
Kevin Durant is one of the 10 greatest offensive players the NBA has ever seen. Among his current contemporaries only Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic make that list. For instance, Durant offensively has clearly been better than the late and legendary Kobe Bryant. To view it from a Houston perspective, Durant has been an indisputably greater offensive force than the amazing Hakeem Olajuwon. But this is not a nostalgia trip in which the Rockets are trading for a guy based on what he used to be. While Durant could hit the wall at any point, living in fear that it’s about to happen is no way to live because KD, approaching his 18th NBA season, is still an elite offensive player.
As to the durability concern, Durant played more games (62) this past season than did Fred VanVleet, Jabari Smith, and Tari Eason. The season before he played more games (75) than did VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, and Alperen Sengun. In each of the last two seasons Durant averaged more minutes per game (36.9) than any Rocket. That was stupid and/or desperate of the Suns, the Rockets will be smarter. Not that the workload eroded Durant’s production or efficiency. Over the two seasons he averaged almost 27 points per game while shooting 52 percent from the floor, 42 percent from behind the three-point line, and 85 percent from the free throw line. Awesomeness. The Rockets made the leap to being a very good team despite a frankly crummy half-court offense. The Rockets ranked 21st among the 30 NBA teams in three-point percentage, and dead last in free throw percentage. Amen Thompson has an array of skills and looks poised to be a unique star. Alas, Thompson has no credible jump shot. VanVleet is not a creator, Smith has limited handle. Adding Durant directly addresses the Rockets’ most glaring weakness.
The price the Rockets paid was in the big picture, minimal, unless you think Jalen Green is going to become a bonafide star. Green is still just 23 years old and spectacular athletically, but nothing he has done over four pro seasons suggests he’s on the cusp of greatness. In no season has Green even shot the league average from the floor or from three. His defense has never been as good as it should be given his athleticism. Compared to some other two-guards who made the NBA move one year removed from high school, four seasons into his career Green is waaaaaay behind where Shae Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, and Devin Booker were four seasons in, and now well behind his draft classmate Cade Cunningham. Dillon Brooks was a solid pro in two seasons here and shot a career-best from three in 2024-2025, but he’s being replaced by Kevin Durant! In terms of the draft pick capital sent to Phoenix, five second round picks are essentially meaningless. The Rockets have multiple extra first round picks in the coming years. As for the sole first-rounder dealt away, whichever player the Rockets would have taken 10th Wednesday night would have been rather unlikely to crack the playing rotation.
VanVleet signs extension
Re-signing Fred VanVleet to a two-year, 50 million dollar guarantee is sensible. In a vacuum, VanVleet was substantially overpaid at the over 40 mil he made per season the last two. He’s a middle-of-the-pack starting point guard. But his professionalism and headiness brought major value to the Rockets’ kiddie corps while their payroll was otherwise very low. Ideally, Reed Sheppard makes a leap to look like an NBA lead guard in his second season, after a pretty much zippo of a rookie campaign. Sheppard is supposed to be a lights-out shooter. For the Rockets to max out, they need two sharpshooters on the court to balance Thompson’s presence.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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