ROOM FOR IMPROVEMENT
Foundational elements Houston Texans plan to build on after strong 2-0 start
Sep 17, 2024, 12:45 pm
The Vikings host the Texans this Sunday. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.
Though they have plenty of work to do, the Houston Texans are feeling good about their 2-0 start after dropping their first two games last season.
The Texans scored just three points after halftime Sunday night, but a smothering defensive performance allowed them to hold on for a 19-13 win over the Bears. The victory has them in early control in the AFC South after the Colts, Titans and Jaguars have all opened the season 0-2.
It’s the first time since 2016 that Houston has won its first two games.
“I definitely know that Texans football was not what we put on the field (Sunday), at least in the second half,” quarterback C.J. Stroud said. “We’ll definitely be better, for sure."
Stroud threw for 260 yards and a touchdown, but the Texans punted on five of their seven possessions in the second half and fumbled on another drive. Their only points after halftime came on a field goal early in the fourth quarter.
“Second half we were just flat,” Stroud said. “Just needed a big play or just needed (to) stack plays really. We just couldn’t find our rhythm.”
One thing that slowed the Texans on Sunday was their inability to run the ball effectively. Houston managed just 75 yards rushing against the Bears after leading the NFL with 213 yards in Week 1.
“They had a lot of penetration,” coach DeMeco Ryans said. “We weren’t able to have the lanes that we had the previous weeks. Something we have to clean up on the offensive side and make sure we just continue to get a head on the hat no matter what they show us.”
The running game was slowed because of an ankle injury to Joe Mixon, who had 159 yards rushing in the opener. He was injured early in the third quarter and returned near the end of the period, but had just two carries for 5 yards the rest of the game as he dealt with the injury. He finished with nine carries for 25 yards.
Ryans said that Mixon got “rolled up” and that it’s too early to know if he’ll play next week.
What’s working
The Texans were relentless in their pressure on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams Sunday night. Houston pressured Williams, the top overall pick in the draft, on 36 of his 37 pass attempts, according to NextGenStats.
Defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter combined for 17 pressures and the Texans piled up seven sacks, which is tied for the second most in franchise history.
Houston had six different players with a sack Sunday night and the team’s nine sacks through two games ranks second in the NFL behind Minnesota’s 11 entering Monday.
What needs help
The Texans must get their running game back on track next week, which will be a tough task if Mixon can’t play. They could be without their top two running backs Sunday with Dameon Pierce dealing with a hamstring injury that kept him out of the game against Chicago.
Stock up
K Ka′imi Fairbairn has been great this season, with Ryans crediting him for Sunday night’s win. He was 4-for-4 against the Bears, making kicks of 59, 56, 53 and 47 yards. He also made three field goals of 50-plus yards in Week 1 to become the first kicker in NFL history to make five or more field goals of 50 yards or longer in a two-game span.
His 59-yard field goal on Sunday night was the second-longest in franchise history behind a 61-yard kick he made in 2021.
“He’s been consistent,” Ryans said. “He’s on it. He’s the reason why we’re standing here. We talk a lot about offense and defense (but) the kicking game is the reason why we won this game.”
Stock down
RB Cam Akers. Pushed into action because of injuries, Akers fumbled on the Chicago 4 with about 6½ minutes left Sunday. The Bears recovered the ball and it led to a field goal that got them within a score with less than three minutes left.
Injuries
Mixon and Pierce are the main injuries the team is dealing with this week.
Key number
252 — Entering Monday, wide receiver Nico Collins leads the NFL with 252 yards receiving, which is the second most in franchise history in the first two games of a season. Collins, who had a career-high 1,297 yards receiving last season, had 135 yards receiving and a touchdown Sunday night for the seventh 100-yard game of his career.
Next steps
Stroud and Houston’s offense will look to clean up their play and move the ball more effectively when they face an early test in a visit to the Minnesota Vikings, who are also 2-0, on Sunday.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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