Houston Texans must win these tactical battles to deliver world-shaking upset
TEXANS ON TAP
17 January 2024
The NFL season has officially come full circle as the Texans head back to Baltimore to face the Ravens, a team that handed Houston their first loss in week one.
This time, the stakes are much higher as it's win-or-go-home. The winner advances to the AFC Championship game to face either the Bills or Chiefs.
The Ravens are favored by 9.5 points, with the total set at 43.5, the lowest of the week.
The Ravens are no doubt a formidable opponent, as they won sixth straight games to finish the season with Lamar Jackson starting at QB. (The Ravens rested their starters in the final week of the season, so we won't count that loss to the Steelers).
In Lamar's final six games, the Ravens outscored their opponents by a whooping 197-106. And they weren't easy matchups either, half of them made the playoffs. They faced the Dolphins, 49ers, Jaguars, Rams, Chargers, and Bengals.
The most impressive victory was against the NFC's No. 1 seed 49ers. They won convincingly 33-19, but that's not the story of the game. It's what Baltimore did to QB Brock Purdy.
He played his worse game as a pro, recording 0 TDs and 4 interceptions. He was intercepted on three of the 49ers' first four drives of the game, and eventually left in the fourth quarter with a stinger.
What's even more concerning is the Texans offense is predicated on the same scheme as the 49ers, with OC Bobby Slowik coming over from San Francisco to call Houston's offense this season.
The Ravens weren't fooled at all against the 49ers, so that could spell trouble for CJ Stroud and the Texans. However, this could work in the Texans' favor. Stroud can watch this tape and get a feel for how the Ravens may try to play him.
Plus, he can learn from the mistakes Purdy made and try not to repeat them. Another thing that could work in the Texans favor is who the Ravens have lost to this season.
The Steelers (twice), Colts, and Browns all beat Baltimore, all teams the Texans have defeated this year.
Health will be a factor
The Ravens are expected to get TE Mark Andrews (ankle) back this week, he was limited at practice on Tuesday.
“Today was his best showing so far,” said Ravens coach John Harbaugh. “He really took a big step. Just what you saw today, we saw as well, so that's encouraging.”
Andrews didn't play in week 1 against Houston, neither did corner Marlon Humphrey, who is questionable for Sunday with a calf injury. He did not practice on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Tuesday's Injury Report for #HOUvsBAL ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/UR0utkZPWX
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 16, 2024
As you can see in the post above, the Texans have a ton of players dealing with injuries. We'll see how they progress at practice over the course of the week.
If Jonathan Greenard and Will Anderson can play a healthy number of snaps, that will make a huge difference. The Texans sacked Jackson 4 times in week 1, and they would like to do it again.
Several Texans returned to practice on Wednesday.
#Texans Laremy Tunsil and Shaq Mason return to practice from rest days @KPRC2 and Dieter Eiselen back from illness. Jerry Hughes not practicing. Will Anderson Jr, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Beck, Maliek Collins, Sheldon Rankins still limited. Robert Woods is dressed out and looks…
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) January 17, 2024
So who comes out on top in this matchup? Be sure to watch the video above for our early preview, predictions for the game, and much more.
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The Houston Texans have a chance to win a third straight AFC South title this season with quarterback C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans.
The challenge?
Nobody has won three straight titles since Peyton Manning was in his prime with the Indianapolis Colts in this division’s early years. The Tennessee Titans most recently came the closest only to come up short in 2022.
“I’m not really sure like what the next step is,” Houston general manager Nick Caserio said. “I mean we have a good football team, so we’ve been one of the best eight teams in the league the last two years. So what’s going to happen beyond that nobody has any idea.”
The Texans have advanced to two straight divisional rounds each of the past two postseasons, losing both with the most recent to Kansas City 23-14 in January. Caserio made a variety of moves to help Stroud, and coach DeMeco Ryans switched offensive coordinators as well.
Houston tight end Dalton Schultz said they just have to do one thing to get past the divisional round.
“It’s never the same as the year before, and there’s always some little wrinkle that is going to hit the league or hit your team,” Schultz said.
Houston went 10-7 in 2024 with the Colts at 8-9 with everyone working furiously to catch up — or else.
Indianapolis switched starting quarterbacks. Jacksonville hired a new coach and general manager before trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. Tennessee has No. 1 draft pick overall in Cam Ward starting at quarterback after firing and hiring a new general manager.
“This league is a year-to-year league and what do I feel is best for the Colts in 2025,” Colts coach Shane Steichen said.
Texans’ challenge
Houston has to protect Stroud better. Only Chicago’s Caleb Williams was sacked more than the 2024 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. With the pounding, Stroud’s production dipped as he was sacked 52 times with his interceptions more than doubling to 12 from his rookie season.
Stroud still threw for 3,727 yards and 20 touchdowns. Ryans fired Bobby Slowik and hired Nick Caley as offensive coordinator.
“He comes from a different style than I’m used to, at least in the NFL,” Stroud said of Caley. “So, it’s cool just to learn something new and put another tool in my toolbox.”
Caserio traded five-time Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil to Washington during the offseason to clear space to sign younger players. The Texans are expected to start a rookie at left tackle in second-round pick Aireontae Ersery with Tytus Howard at right tackle where he started 16 games last season.
Houston also acquired Christian Kirk, signed Justin Watson and drafted a pair of receivers out of Iowa State to provide depth behind Nico Collins after letting Stefon Diggs leave in free agency. Caserio also sent wide receiver John Metchie to Philadelphia for tight end Harrison Bryant on Aug. 17.
Hey Danny Dimes
Indianapolis has missed the playoffs the past four seasons, and a fifth straight could cost Steichen and general manager Chris Ballard their jobs with the late Jim Irsay’s daughters now running the franchise.
Going with Daniel Jones means the franchise who went two decades with Manning and Andrew Luck at quarterback will have yet another starter on opening day. Since 2017, only Anthony Richardson has started back-to-back season openers.
Yet the fourth overall pick in 2023 couldn’t stay healthy or help Jonathan Taylor nearly enough. Taylor ran for 1,431 yards and 11 TDs as Richardson completed just 47.7% of his throws, the lowest rate of any regular starter in the NFL.
Steichen said Richardson, 23, was thrown into the fire. The Colts coach isn’t ready to talk about Jones’ future.
“Let’s see how the season goes,” Steichen said.
Jacksonville’s youth movement
The biggest makeover came in Jacksonville, firing a Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson and GM Trent Baalke. The Jaguars hired Liam Coen as coach and James Gladstone, 34, as their new GM.
The Jaguars are trying to fix a team that went 3-10 in one-score games in 2024 with the franchise losers of 18 of its past 23.
In his first head coaching job, Coen, 39, has a pair of first-timers in offensive coordinator Grant Udinski and defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile. As coordinator in Tampa Bay, Coen became the first NFL coordinator in at least 25 years to help a team average more than 28 points a game.
He has Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft, who was limited by injuries to 10 games in 2024. Wide receiver Brian Thomas now can get help from Hunter, even if the rookie will also play some defense.
Tennessee time
Brian Callahan also was a first-time head coach a year ago with the Titans. He brought in a former NFL head coach in Mike McCoy this offseason among a handful of other changes to apply his lessons learned.
Mike Borgonzi was hired as GM when Ran Carthon’s big offseason spending spree didn’t pan out. The Titans have embraced their rebuild even if they added veteran receivers Tyler Lockett and Van Jefferson along with left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and right guard Kevin Zeitler.
Predicted order of finish
Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville.
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