Houston Texans must win these tactical battles to deliver world-shaking upset

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The NFL season has officially come full circle as the Texans head back to Baltimore to face the Ravens, a team that handed Houston their first loss in week one.

This time, the stakes are much higher as it's win-or-go-home. The winner advances to the AFC Championship game to face either the Bills or Chiefs.

The Ravens are favored by 9.5 points, with the total set at 43.5, the lowest of the week.

The Ravens are no doubt a formidable opponent, as they won sixth straight games to finish the season with Lamar Jackson starting at QB. (The Ravens rested their starters in the final week of the season, so we won't count that loss to the Steelers).

In Lamar's final six games, the Ravens outscored their opponents by a whooping 197-106. And they weren't easy matchups either, half of them made the playoffs. They faced the Dolphins, 49ers, Jaguars, Rams, Chargers, and Bengals.

The most impressive victory was against the NFC's No. 1 seed 49ers. They won convincingly 33-19, but that's not the story of the game. It's what Baltimore did to QB Brock Purdy.

He played his worse game as a pro, recording 0 TDs and 4 interceptions. He was intercepted on three of the 49ers' first four drives of the game, and eventually left in the fourth quarter with a stinger.

What's even more concerning is the Texans offense is predicated on the same scheme as the 49ers, with OC Bobby Slowik coming over from San Francisco to call Houston's offense this season.

The Ravens weren't fooled at all against the 49ers, so that could spell trouble for CJ Stroud and the Texans. However, this could work in the Texans' favor. Stroud can watch this tape and get a feel for how the Ravens may try to play him.

Plus, he can learn from the mistakes Purdy made and try not to repeat them. Another thing that could work in the Texans favor is who the Ravens have lost to this season.

The Steelers (twice), Colts, and Browns all beat Baltimore, all teams the Texans have defeated this year.

Health will be a factor

The Ravens are expected to get TE Mark Andrews (ankle) back this week, he was limited at practice on Tuesday.

“Today was his best showing so far,” said Ravens coach John Harbaugh. “He really took a big step. Just what you saw today, we saw as well, so that's encouraging.”

Andrews didn't play in week 1 against Houston, neither did corner Marlon Humphrey, who is questionable for Sunday with a calf injury. He did not practice on Tuesday or Wednesday.

As you can see in the post above, the Texans have a ton of players dealing with injuries. We'll see how they progress at practice over the course of the week.

If Jonathan Greenard and Will Anderson can play a healthy number of snaps, that will make a huge difference. The Texans sacked Jackson 4 times in week 1, and they would like to do it again.

Several Texans returned to practice on Wednesday.

So who comes out on top in this matchup? Be sure to watch the video above for our early preview, predictions for the game, and much more.

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Astros defeat the Royals, 2-1. Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images.

Isaac Paredes hit a tiebreaking solo homer in the ninth inning to lift the Houston Astros to a 2-1 victory over the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday night.

The game was tied at 1 after a home run by Jeremy Peña in the sixth inning when Paredes led off the bottom of the ninth against John Schreiber (1-2). He sent his second pitch to left-center field for his fifth homer this season, giving Houston the win after Kansas City took the series opener Monday.

Both teams got strong outings from their starters. Houston’s Framber Valdez allowed six hits and a run with seven strikeouts in eight innings. Kris Bubic yielded six hits and a run and tied a career high with nine strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings.

Bryan Abreu (1-1) struck out one in a scoreless ninth for the win.

Hunter Renfroe doubled off the wall in left-center field with one out in the eighth. Valdez plunked Jonathan India on the foot with two outs, but he induced a groundout by Bobby Witt Jr. to end his night.

Maikel Garcia walked to open the fifth before a single by Vinnie Pasquantino sent him to third. The Royals took a 1-0 lead when Freddy Fermin singled on a ground ball to right field that scored Garcia.

Peña’s home run to left field tied it with no outs in the sixth.

Jose Altuve followed with a double on a grounder down the third base line, but Bubic retired the next three batters, with two strikeouts, to leave him stranded.

Jake Meyers singled to start Houston’s seventh, but was out at second when Cam Smith grounded into a force out. Bubic was replaced by Lucas Erceg and he picked off Smith at first before striking out Brendan Rodgers to end the inning.

Key moment

The home run by Paredes.

Key stat

Peña has three homers, four doubles, 24 hits and 13 RBIs in 15 games since moving to the leadoff spot.

Up next

Kansas City RHP Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.57 ERA) opposes LHP Colton Gordon in the series finale Wednesday night. Gordon will be recalled from Triple-A Sugar Land to make his major league debut.

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