Houston Texans must win these tactical battles to deliver world-shaking upset
TEXANS ON TAP
17 January
TEXANS ON TAP
The NFL season has officially come full circle as the Texans head back to Baltimore to face the Ravens, a team that handed Houston their first loss in week one.
This time, the stakes are much higher as it's win-or-go-home. The winner advances to the AFC Championship game to face either the Bills or Chiefs.
The Ravens are favored by 9.5 points, with the total set at 43.5, the lowest of the week.
The Ravens are no doubt a formidable opponent, as they won sixth straight games to finish the season with Lamar Jackson starting at QB. (The Ravens rested their starters in the final week of the season, so we won't count that loss to the Steelers).
In Lamar's final six games, the Ravens outscored their opponents by a whooping 197-106. And they weren't easy matchups either, half of them made the playoffs. They faced the Dolphins, 49ers, Jaguars, Rams, Chargers, and Bengals.
The most impressive victory was against the NFC's No. 1 seed 49ers. They won convincingly 33-19, but that's not the story of the game. It's what Baltimore did to QB Brock Purdy.
He played his worse game as a pro, recording 0 TDs and 4 interceptions. He was intercepted on three of the 49ers' first four drives of the game, and eventually left in the fourth quarter with a stinger.
What's even more concerning is the Texans offense is predicated on the same scheme as the 49ers, with OC Bobby Slowik coming over from San Francisco to call Houston's offense this season.
The Ravens weren't fooled at all against the 49ers, so that could spell trouble for CJ Stroud and the Texans. However, this could work in the Texans' favor. Stroud can watch this tape and get a feel for how the Ravens may try to play him.
Plus, he can learn from the mistakes Purdy made and try not to repeat them. Another thing that could work in the Texans favor is who the Ravens have lost to this season.
The Steelers (twice), Colts, and Browns all beat Baltimore, all teams the Texans have defeated this year.
Health will be a factor
The Ravens are expected to get TE Mark Andrews (ankle) back this week, he was limited at practice on Tuesday.
“Today was his best showing so far,” said Ravens coach John Harbaugh. “He really took a big step. Just what you saw today, we saw as well, so that's encouraging.”
Andrews didn't play in week 1 against Houston, neither did corner Marlon Humphrey, who is questionable for Sunday with a calf injury. He did not practice on Tuesday or Wednesday.
Tuesday's Injury Report for #HOUvsBAL ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/UR0utkZPWX
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 16, 2024
As you can see in the post above, the Texans have a ton of players dealing with injuries. We'll see how they progress at practice over the course of the week.
If Jonathan Greenard and Will Anderson can play a healthy number of snaps, that will make a huge difference. The Texans sacked Jackson 4 times in week 1, and they would like to do it again.
Several Texans returned to practice on Wednesday.
#Texans Laremy Tunsil and Shaq Mason return to practice from rest days @KPRC2 and Dieter Eiselen back from illness. Jerry Hughes not practicing. Will Anderson Jr, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Beck, Maliek Collins, Sheldon Rankins still limited. Robert Woods is dressed out and looks…
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) January 17, 2024
So who comes out on top in this matchup? Be sure to watch the video above for our early preview, predictions for the game, and much more.
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With the Texans coming off their sorry second half showing at the Jets and the Detroit Lions coming to town riding a six-game winning streak, it has the look of pretender vs. contender Sunday night at NRG Stadium. The 7-1 Lions are obviously the better team but that is no guarantee that they will be the better team Sunday night. The point spread is only three and a half points. It’s not as if a Texans victory would be a stunning upset. The Texans knocking off the Lions would not balance the books for the Detroit Tigers having bounced the Astros from the baseball playoffs last month, but it would be one of the better regular season wins in Texans’ history.
If not upsetting, it certainly isn’t uplifting that Nick Caserio made zero consequential moves before Tuesday’s trade deadline. If you’re a Texans fan it is upsetting, though shouldn’t be infuriating. Claiming off waivers an offensive lineman (Zachary Thomas) who was getting about 10 snaps per game on one of the very worst o-lines in the NFL (New England Patriots) does not qualify as consequential. It’s not as if Caserio could snap his fingers and make a great deal for a legitimate starting left guard. But his job is to build the roster and he made nothing that qualifies as even a modest upgrade to the most glaring weakness on the team. Play can’t be much worse than what Kenyon Green was providing at left guard before his season-ending injury. But Kenyon was only playing because the staff considered him better than Kendrick Green and Jarrett Patterson. Or, Kenyon was getting unwarranted extended run to prove conclusively he was a waste of a first-round draft pick in 2022.
If Caserio believes the Texans are a bonafide threat in the AFC, adding nothing is a clear fail. Any gurgling about “we believe in our guys” as justification for inertia should be scoffed at, unless Caserio or anyone else believes the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, and Ravens didn’t “believe in their guys.” All those AFC contenders made clear upgrades. This is not talking about the Texans trading high draft choices. Last week the Minnesota Vikings acquired Jacksonville starting left tackle Cam Robinson for a conditional fifth-round pick.
Tale of the tape
As for Sunday, NBC has to be hoping the Texans being 4-0 this season at NRG Stadium bodes well for them, at least giving the Lions a good game. The Texans are with the Chiefs, Bills, Commanders (!), and Bears (!!) as unbeaten at home. On the other hand, the Lions are a perfect 4-0 on the road. The Chiefs and Falcons have also yet to lose on the road.
While hoping that Aidan Hutchinson makes a complete recovery from his multiple leg fractures, the Lions’ beastly defensive end’s absence sure helps the cause of the Texans’ feeble pass-protecting offensive line. Hutchinson was the early leader for Defensive Player of the Year with seven and a half sacks in five games before he went down. The Lions traded for DE Za’Darius Smith from Cleveland this week. It’s unclear whether Smith makes his Detroit debut chasing C.J. Stroud.
The Texans have topped 30 points in a game once this season. The Lions average an NFL-leading 32.3 per game, topping 30 in four of their last five games, only coming up short last Sunday in a rain-soaked 24-14 win at Green Bay. Over those five games quarterback Jared Goff has completed an absurd 83.8 percent of his passes, with 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. For the season Goff is completing 74.9 percent. If he maintains that number, he’ll break the NFL record of 74.4 that Drew Brees posted with the Saints in 2018.
Third time's the charm?
Only once in their history have the Texans managed three consecutive winning seasons. They went 9-7 in each of them under Bill O’Brien in 2014, ‘15, and ‘16. They did so with three different quarterbacks leading them in passing yardage: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, and Brock Osweiler (really!). The Lions are two victories from securing their first back-to-back-to-back winning seasons since 1993, ‘94, and ‘95. That was the heyday of the great Barry Sanders at running back. Three different quarterbacks led the Lions in passing yardage those years. You’re probably fibbing if you claimed “I know them: Rodney Peete, Dave Krieg, and Scott Mitchell.”
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
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