THE PALLILOG
How the Houston Texans can reach the postseason beyond winning out
Dec 28, 2023, 4:43 pm
Texans playoff scenarios revealed. Composite Getty Image.
If in August the Texans or any Texans’ fan were offered a proposition of win the final two regular season games in order to make the playoffs, only a fool or the most lunatic fringy optimists would have passed. Here we are. Blowout losses within their last three games to the Jets and Browns rub some of the shine off of the Texans’ 8-7 record, but get past the Titans Sunday and beat the Colts next Sunday and playoffs it is. No matter how the Texans finish this has been a season of excellent progress.
That progress is rooted to the arrival and good health of C.J. Stroud, who cleared concussion protocol on Thursday. Without him the last two games the Texans’ offense has been mostly inept, though at least Cleveland has a top tier defense. They were able to overcome often odorous offense to win at Tennessee in large part because the defense snuffed Derrick Henry who mustered a laughable nine yards rushing on 16 carries. His last two times playing at NRG Stadium Henry ran, ran, and ran some more. In 2020 (actually January 3, 2021) he finished off a 2027 yard season with a 34 carry 250 yard tour de force. He missed the 2021 game injured then last season resumed wrecking ball status with 34 carries for 219 yards. Henry turns 30 next Thursday. He’s not the same back and is not running behind the same offensive line. Henry needs 28 yards for his fifth career 1000 yard season. He’ll probably get those, but shouldn’t smear the Texans into the NRG turf as in games past. Henry’s career can be compared very reasonably to that of the legendary Earl Campbell with the Oilers. Each only had three monster seasons. In Henry’s he totaled 5105 yards on 1030 carries (4.96 yards per carry). The “Tyler Rose” rumbled for 5081 yards on 1043 carries (4.87 yards per carry).
There are multiple scenarios in which the Texans can split their remaining two games and make the postseason at 9-8, regardless of which of the two games they win. The ideal 9-8 outcome would have the Texans lose to the Titans then bounce back to win at Indianapolis while the Jaguars cap an epic collapse by losing this week to the 2-13 Panthers and next week to the Titans. That would leave Jacksonville dead at 8-9. Unlikely but not impossible given the way the Jags have played in losing four in a row. Add in a Colts loss to the Raiders this weekend and Presto! The Texans would be 9-8 AFC South Champions. Winning the division outright is the only way they can win it. The Jaguars win a three-way tiebreaker and own the tiebreaker over the Texans. Even should they win at Indy the Texans lose a tiebreaker to the Colts via conference record.
Maldy is moving on
So it turns out no good team wanted the catching genius of Martin Maldonado. Including the Astros. He settled this week for a one-year four million dollar contract with the Chicago White Sox, with a vesting option for 2025 based upon his 2024 playing time. That’s a one million dollar pay cut. Unless ego got in the way, Maldy should have preferred four mil to stay with the ‘Stros as Yainer Diaz’s backup. Except the Astros opted to pay six million per season in their two year deal with Victor Caratini. In the NFL the term “The Room” is sometimes ascribed to a position group, i.e. the Texans have a good “quarterback room” with C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills, and Case Keenum. The White Sox “catcher room” is now chock full of former Astros. Maldonado joins Korey Lee and Max Stassi on the White Sox’ backstop depth chart.
College Football Playoff
Aggie fans probably wouldn’t find it so enjoyable but wouldn’t it be something if over the next three months and change the University of Texas wins the College Football Playoff and then the University of Houston wins the NCAA Basketball Championship. The Longhorns have the talent edge over Washington in their New Year’s Night semifinal Sugar Bowl matchup. However, Huskies’ quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is more dynamic than UT’s Quinn Ewers. Plus there is the variable of uncertainty when teams haven’t played a game in a month. This is the last time that will ever happen with next season’s tripling of the playoff bracket from four teams to 12.
On the hoops side, barring a highly unlikely upset loss to Penn Saturday, Kelvin Sampson’s third ranked UH squad will roll into 2024 and the start of Big 12 conference play undefeated at 13-0. The league opener is against West Virginia which may be the worst team in the Big 12. After that, not that anyone should be unaware, but it will be acutely obvious that the Cougars are no longer in the American Athletic Conference. Last season within league play they faced zero ranked opponents. Seven games loom (five of them on the road) against Big 12 teams presently ranked in the top 21, including two each vs. Kansas and Texas. Should be fantastic. The Coogs are one of three unbeatens remaining in Division One along with James Madison and Mississippi.
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X-factor matchups for Houston Texans to make statement rebound versus Colts
Oct 24, 2024, 6:10 pm
Indianapolis (4-3) at Houston (5-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT, CBS
BetMGM NFL Odds: Texans by 6.
Against the spread: Indianapolis 6-1; Houston 3-3-1.
Series record: Colts lead 33-12-1.
Last meeting: Texans beat Colts 29-27 on Sept. 8, in Indianapolis.
Last week: Colts beat Dolphins 16-10; Texans lost to Packers 24-22.
Colts offense: overall (16), rush (14), pass (17), scoring (18).
Colts defense: overall (29), rush (31), pass (23), scoring (T12).
Texans offense: overall (11), rush (15), pass (10), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (2), rush (8), pass (4), scoring (17).
Turnover differential: Colts plus-2, Texans plus-3.
Colts player to watch
RB Jonathan Taylor. Despite the Colts optimism each of the past three weeks, Taylor has continued to sit out. Now, he appears to be close to fully recovered from the sprained ankle that knocked him out late in the victory over Pittsburgh on Sept. 29. It’s unclear how much Taylor will play — or how effective he’ll be — but having Taylor in the backfield will only make QB Anthony Richardson's ability to run more of an option.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud. The second-year pro looks to bounce back after throwing for a career-low 86 yards without a TD pass last week. The Texans are focused on improving his protection after he was sacked four times and hit another seven in the loss to Green Bay. He’s been great at home this season, going 3-0 with 936 yards passing.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. the Indianapolis run defense. Mixon has had at least 100 yards rushing in each of the three full games he’s played this season. The former Bengal, who is in his first year in Houston, had 115 yards rushing and ran for two touchdowns last week for his 10th career game with at least two rushing scores. Now Mixon, who ran for a season-high 159 yards and a TD in Week 1 against the Colts, will face a run defense which ranks 31st in the NFL by allowing 159.9 yards a game. Indianapolis has allowed at least 185 yards rushing three times this season, capped by 188 yards last week against Miami.
Key injuries
Indy’s injury list finally appears to be shrinking. Richardson (right hip) and Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly (calf) returned last week against Miami. Taylor is scheduled to return Sunday at Houston and All-Pro DT DeForest Buckner (sprained ankle) returned to practice Wednesday. WRs Michael Pittman Jr. (back), Josh Downs (toe) and Alec Pierce (shoulder) have continued to play through their injuries, leaving one big question mark this weekend — LB E.J. Speed (knee), who missed last week’s game. … Houston LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and S Jimmie Ward (groin) missed Sunday’s game and could be out again this week after missing practice. ... LB Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) and CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder) returned to practice after missing time but coach DeMeco Ryans wouldn't say if they'll play Sunday.
Series notes
Houston has won three of the past four matchups, the past two by a total of six points — both in Indy. ... This will be the third meeting between these franchises in an eight-game stretch. ... Stroud and Richardson were selected two picks apart in the 2023 NFL draft and they developed a friendship while preparing for the draft. But they’ve only played against one another twice. Richardson won the first meeting in Week 2 of 2023, rushing for two scores in Houston before leaving with a concussion. Stroud won the rematch in September.
Stats and stuff
Sunday will mark the second matchup this season between Colts DBs coach Ron Milus and his son, Texas defensive assistant Ryan Milus. ... The Colts have won four of their past five since starting the season 0-2. ... Indy is 4-9-1 in division games since the start of the 2022 season. But the Colts can even the season series with Houston and pull into a tie for the AFC South lead with a victory. ... Indy’s 31 plays of 20 or more yards this season are the fourth most in the NFL this season. ... Pittman needs 2 yards receiving to reach 4,000 in his five-year career. ... Taylor needs 78 total yards to pass Hall of Famer Lenny Moore (6,040 yards) for No. 4 in franchise history. ... Richardson and 39-year-old Joe Flacco have thrown a total of 10 TD passes this season. ... Pierce leads the NFL with an average of 25.5 yards per catch and has a league-high five receptions of 40 or more yards. ... Colts DE Laiatu Latu’s two sacks are tied with Jonah Elliss of Denver for the most among NFL rookies. ... LB Zaire Franklin leads the NFL in tackles with 78. ... CB Jaylon Jones is one of seven players to pick off two passes in a game this season. His eight passes defensed are also tied for No. 5 in the league. … The Texans have forced seven turnovers combined in their past two games. … Houston WR Stefon Diggs has had at least 65 yards receiving in four of his past five games. He has two TD receptions in each of his past two games against the Colts. … WR Tank Dell, who didn’t have a catch last week, had seven receptions for 72 yards a touchdown in the previous game against the Colts in Houston. … DE Danielle Hunter has had a sack in two straight games. … DE Will Anderson has had at least one tackle for loss in three straight games and at least one sack in his past two. He is tied for sixth in the NFL with 6½ sacks this season. … DT Tim Settle had two tackles for losses and a sack last week. … LB Neville Hewitt led the team with a season-high nine tackles last week and had an interception. … S Calen Bullock is tied for first among rookie in the league with three interceptions. He had an interception in the first meeting with Indianapolis. … CB Derek Stingley had six tackles, including one for a loss and defended a pass last week. ... LB Devin White, a Pro Bowler in 2021 with Tampa Bay, signed with Houston on Wednesday.
Fantasy tip
Mixon should be a good pickup this week against Indy’s struggling run defense after he’s combined for 217 yards rushing with three rushing TDs and one touchdown reception in the two games since returning from injury.