THE PALLILOG

How the Houston Texans can reach the postseason beyond winning out

Houston Texans Nico Collins, CJ Stroud
Texans playoff scenarios revealed. Composite Getty Image.

If in August the Texans or any Texans’ fan were offered a proposition of win the final two regular season games in order to make the playoffs, only a fool or the most lunatic fringy optimists would have passed. Here we are. Blowout losses within their last three games to the Jets and Browns rub some of the shine off of the Texans’ 8-7 record, but get past the Titans Sunday and beat the Colts next Sunday and playoffs it is. No matter how the Texans finish this has been a season of excellent progress.

That progress is rooted to the arrival and good health of C.J. Stroud, who cleared concussion protocol on Thursday. Without him the last two games the Texans’ offense has been mostly inept, though at least Cleveland has a top tier defense. They were able to overcome often odorous offense to win at Tennessee in large part because the defense snuffed Derrick Henry who mustered a laughable nine yards rushing on 16 carries. His last two times playing at NRG Stadium Henry ran, ran, and ran some more. In 2020 (actually January 3, 2021) he finished off a 2027 yard season with a 34 carry 250 yard tour de force. He missed the 2021 game injured then last season resumed wrecking ball status with 34 carries for 219 yards. Henry turns 30 next Thursday. He’s not the same back and is not running behind the same offensive line. Henry needs 28 yards for his fifth career 1000 yard season. He’ll probably get those, but shouldn’t smear the Texans into the NRG turf as in games past. Henry’s career can be compared very reasonably to that of the legendary Earl Campbell with the Oilers. Each only had three monster seasons. In Henry’s he totaled 5105 yards on 1030 carries (4.96 yards per carry). The “Tyler Rose” rumbled for 5081 yards on 1043 carries (4.87 yards per carry).

There are multiple scenarios in which the Texans can split their remaining two games and make the postseason at 9-8, regardless of which of the two games they win. The ideal 9-8 outcome would have the Texans lose to the Titans then bounce back to win at Indianapolis while the Jaguars cap an epic collapse by losing this week to the 2-13 Panthers and next week to the Titans. That would leave Jacksonville dead at 8-9. Unlikely but not impossible given the way the Jags have played in losing four in a row. Add in a Colts loss to the Raiders this weekend and Presto! The Texans would be 9-8 AFC South Champions. Winning the division outright is the only way they can win it. The Jaguars win a three-way tiebreaker and own the tiebreaker over the Texans. Even should they win at Indy the Texans lose a tiebreaker to the Colts via conference record.

Maldy is moving on

So it turns out no good team wanted the catching genius of Martin Maldonado. Including the Astros. He settled this week for a one-year four million dollar contract with the Chicago White Sox, with a vesting option for 2025 based upon his 2024 playing time. That’s a one million dollar pay cut. Unless ego got in the way, Maldy should have preferred four mil to stay with the ‘Stros as Yainer Diaz’s backup. Except the Astros opted to pay six million per season in their two year deal with Victor Caratini. In the NFL the term “The Room” is sometimes ascribed to a position group, i.e. the Texans have a good “quarterback room” with C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills, and Case Keenum. The White Sox “catcher room” is now chock full of former Astros. Maldonado joins Korey Lee and Max Stassi on the White Sox’ backstop depth chart.

College Football Playoff

Aggie fans probably wouldn’t find it so enjoyable but wouldn’t it be something if over the next three months and change the University of Texas wins the College Football Playoff and then the University of Houston wins the NCAA Basketball Championship. The Longhorns have the talent edge over Washington in their New Year’s Night semifinal Sugar Bowl matchup. However, Huskies’ quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is more dynamic than UT’s Quinn Ewers. Plus there is the variable of uncertainty when teams haven’t played a game in a month. This is the last time that will ever happen with next season’s tripling of the playoff bracket from four teams to 12.

On the hoops side, barring a highly unlikely upset loss to Penn Saturday, Kelvin Sampson’s third ranked UH squad will roll into 2024 and the start of Big 12 conference play undefeated at 13-0. The league opener is against West Virginia which may be the worst team in the Big 12. After that, not that anyone should be unaware, but it will be acutely obvious that the Cougars are no longer in the American Athletic Conference. Last season within league play they faced zero ranked opponents. Seven games loom (five of them on the road) against Big 12 teams presently ranked in the top 21, including two each vs. Kansas and Texas. Should be fantastic. The Coogs are one of three unbeatens remaining in Division One along with James Madison and Mississippi.

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
Cam Smith continues to swing a hot bat! Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.

The Houston Astros wrapped up yet another series win this week, this time taking two of three from the struggling Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Despite missing several key players and a bullpen that wasn’t fully available, the Astros continued their recent run of success, pushing their record to 52-35.

Manager Joe Espada appeared to be playing the long game in the rubber match on Thursday. After Houston rallied to tie the game in the seventh inning, Espada stuck with reliever Jordan Weems instead of turning to his high-leverage arms. That decision, while frustrating to some fans hoping for the sweep, underscored the team’s cautious approach to workload management as they navigate a long season.

One bright spot continues to be rookie Cam Smith, who delivered again in the clutch with a two-run triple in the seventh inning on Thursday. Smith has been Houston’s most dependable bat with runners on base and is quickly settling into the cleanup role—a rarity for a first-year player but one he’s earned with his poise and production.

 

Off the field, the biggest storyline continues to be Yordan Alvarez’s injury. After reports surfaced that the slugger had experienced a setback in his return from a fractured hand, the team clarified that the issue is inflammation, not the fracture itself. Astros general manager Dana Brown said Alvarez received injections to address the irritation and is expected to rest for now. Encouragingly, the Astros say the fracture is no longer a concern, and while there’s still no definitive timeline for his return, the overall tone from the club was optimistic.

The transparency around Alvarez’s situation is part of a larger shift. After being criticized in recent seasons for vague injury updates, the Astros have begun issuing daily availability reports. It’s a move that signals the front office is trying to regain some trust with the media and fans after a stretch of frustrating ambiguity around player health.

Now, the Astros head to Los Angeles for a marquee matchup with the defending champion Dodgers. Friday’s opener will feature Lance McCullers Jr. making just his second start since returning from the injured list. McCullers gave up eight runs in his return against the Cubs and will be under the spotlight as he looks to settle back into form. Control will be the key, as walks have long been McCullers’ Achilles’ heel.

Saturday sets the stage for one of the most anticipated pitching matchups of the season: Framber Valdez versus Shohei Ohtani. With both teams fighting for positioning in their respective divisions, this weekend in LA should serve as a measuring stick—and perhaps a postseason preview.

There's so much more to get to! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!

The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.

___________________________

*ChatGPT assisted.

Looking to get the word out about your business, products, or services? Consider advertising on SportsMap! It's a great way to get in front of Houston sports fans. Click the link below for more information!

https://houston.sportsmap.com/advertise

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome