THE PALLILOG
How the Houston Texans can reach the postseason beyond winning out
Dec 28, 2023, 4:43 pm
Texans playoff scenarios revealed. Composite Getty Image.
If in August the Texans or any Texans’ fan were offered a proposition of win the final two regular season games in order to make the playoffs, only a fool or the most lunatic fringy optimists would have passed. Here we are. Blowout losses within their last three games to the Jets and Browns rub some of the shine off of the Texans’ 8-7 record, but get past the Titans Sunday and beat the Colts next Sunday and playoffs it is. No matter how the Texans finish this has been a season of excellent progress.
That progress is rooted to the arrival and good health of C.J. Stroud, who cleared concussion protocol on Thursday. Without him the last two games the Texans’ offense has been mostly inept, though at least Cleveland has a top tier defense. They were able to overcome often odorous offense to win at Tennessee in large part because the defense snuffed Derrick Henry who mustered a laughable nine yards rushing on 16 carries. His last two times playing at NRG Stadium Henry ran, ran, and ran some more. In 2020 (actually January 3, 2021) he finished off a 2027 yard season with a 34 carry 250 yard tour de force. He missed the 2021 game injured then last season resumed wrecking ball status with 34 carries for 219 yards. Henry turns 30 next Thursday. He’s not the same back and is not running behind the same offensive line. Henry needs 28 yards for his fifth career 1000 yard season. He’ll probably get those, but shouldn’t smear the Texans into the NRG turf as in games past. Henry’s career can be compared very reasonably to that of the legendary Earl Campbell with the Oilers. Each only had three monster seasons. In Henry’s he totaled 5105 yards on 1030 carries (4.96 yards per carry). The “Tyler Rose” rumbled for 5081 yards on 1043 carries (4.87 yards per carry).
There are multiple scenarios in which the Texans can split their remaining two games and make the postseason at 9-8, regardless of which of the two games they win. The ideal 9-8 outcome would have the Texans lose to the Titans then bounce back to win at Indianapolis while the Jaguars cap an epic collapse by losing this week to the 2-13 Panthers and next week to the Titans. That would leave Jacksonville dead at 8-9. Unlikely but not impossible given the way the Jags have played in losing four in a row. Add in a Colts loss to the Raiders this weekend and Presto! The Texans would be 9-8 AFC South Champions. Winning the division outright is the only way they can win it. The Jaguars win a three-way tiebreaker and own the tiebreaker over the Texans. Even should they win at Indy the Texans lose a tiebreaker to the Colts via conference record.
Maldy is moving on
So it turns out no good team wanted the catching genius of Martin Maldonado. Including the Astros. He settled this week for a one-year four million dollar contract with the Chicago White Sox, with a vesting option for 2025 based upon his 2024 playing time. That’s a one million dollar pay cut. Unless ego got in the way, Maldy should have preferred four mil to stay with the ‘Stros as Yainer Diaz’s backup. Except the Astros opted to pay six million per season in their two year deal with Victor Caratini. In the NFL the term “The Room” is sometimes ascribed to a position group, i.e. the Texans have a good “quarterback room” with C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills, and Case Keenum. The White Sox “catcher room” is now chock full of former Astros. Maldonado joins Korey Lee and Max Stassi on the White Sox’ backstop depth chart.
College Football Playoff
Aggie fans probably wouldn’t find it so enjoyable but wouldn’t it be something if over the next three months and change the University of Texas wins the College Football Playoff and then the University of Houston wins the NCAA Basketball Championship. The Longhorns have the talent edge over Washington in their New Year’s Night semifinal Sugar Bowl matchup. However, Huskies’ quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is more dynamic than UT’s Quinn Ewers. Plus there is the variable of uncertainty when teams haven’t played a game in a month. This is the last time that will ever happen with next season’s tripling of the playoff bracket from four teams to 12.
On the hoops side, barring a highly unlikely upset loss to Penn Saturday, Kelvin Sampson’s third ranked UH squad will roll into 2024 and the start of Big 12 conference play undefeated at 13-0. The league opener is against West Virginia which may be the worst team in the Big 12. After that, not that anyone should be unaware, but it will be acutely obvious that the Cougars are no longer in the American Athletic Conference. Last season within league play they faced zero ranked opponents. Seven games loom (five of them on the road) against Big 12 teams presently ranked in the top 21, including two each vs. Kansas and Texas. Should be fantastic. The Coogs are one of three unbeatens remaining in Division One along with James Madison and Mississippi.
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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