TALE OF THE TAPE
Texans rookie royalty: How Stroud's spectacular season aligns with recent superstar quarterbacks
Jan 4, 2024, 12:30 pm
CJ Stroud is playing on another level. Composite Getty Image.
As the Houston Texans approach their win-in, lose-out clash for the playoffs Saturday night against the Indianapolis Colts – the Texans are favored by a point – let’s get down to brass tacks and put sensational quarterback C.J. Stroud’s season in perspective.
With one game (at least) left, Stroud has tossed 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions, good for 3,844 yards – all sensational, ultra efficient figures. He is a lock to be named AFC Offensive Rookie of the Year. More important, he has led the Texans to an improbable winning record and possible playoff berth.
In short, Stroud is putting together one of the singularly successful seasons ever for a rookie quarterback. For a better grasp of Stroud’s accomplishments, oranges to oranges, let’s compare his numbers with the debut season of several Hall of Fame and recent superstar quarterbacks, all high first-round picks in the NFL draft.
Troy Aikman, Dallas Cowboys (No. 1, 1989): The Cowboys went 0-11 with Aikman as starter. He threw 9 touchdowns and 18 interceptions.
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (No. 1, 1998): The Colts went 3-13 with Manning as starter. He threw 26 touchdowns and 28 interceptions.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (No. 1, 2009): The Lions went 2-8 with Stafford as starter. He threw 13 touchdowns and 20 interceptions.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (No. 1 2020): The Bengals went 2-7 with Burrow as starter. He threw 13 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (No. 7, 2018): The Bills went 5-6 with Allen as starter. He threw 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 1, 2021): The Jaguars went 3-14 with Lawrence as starter. He threw 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
It’s true that these quarterbacks joined lowly teams that struggled for wins their previous season – that’s how they earned top draft picks. But Stroud didn’t exactly take the reins of a juggernaut. The Texans were coming off three seasons of sucking big time with 4, 4 and (last year) 3 wins.
Again, with a game left on the schedule, Stroud has 21 touchdowns and only five interceptions. And that’s with Stroud missing two games with a concussion, which the Texans split 1-1.
In Week 9, Stroud set a rookie record against the Buccaneers by passing for 470 yards in a single game. He also became the only rookie ever to throw five touchdowns without an interception.
Had he not missed two games, Stroud may be challenging the all-time record for passing yards by a rookie, 4,373 yards set by Colts quarterback Andrew Luck in 2012. Luck started 16 games and threw 23 touchdowns that season. But he also threw 18 interceptions.
Edge: Stroud … more to come.
Heading into Wednesday's Grapefruit League game, reports indicate that Astros first baseman Christian Walker has been scratched with left oblique soreness.
Worth noting that Christian Walker had a left oblique injury last season that kept him on the IL for more than a month https://t.co/13IZ7P6Dtd
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) March 5, 2025
As Chandler Rome mentions in the post above, Walker missed the entire month of August in 2024 with a left oblique injury. He only hit .231 for the remainder of the season after recovering from the injury.
Walker was off to a hot start this spring, hitting .500 with 3 doubles in 8 at-bats. Hopefully this is just a precautionary move, and he'll be back in the lineup shortly.
However, these are the types of risks owner Jim Crane likes to take. Only willing to commit big money on short-term deals to aging players. Walker will be 34 years old at the end of March. He signed a 3-year, $60 million contract with Houston this offseason.
The reality is, sometimes these moves work, and sometimes they don't. Older players are more likely to have their production falloff and deal with injuries. Michael Brantley is a prime example of getting good value from an older player on a short contract. His 2-year deal for $32 million with the Astros for the 2019 and 2020 seasons turned out to be a solid move. He played the 2019 and 2020 seasons at 32 and 33 years old, respectively. His contracts with the 'Stros following that original deal did not work out nearly as well, with injuries keeping him out of the lineup regularly.
Justin Verlander is another example of Crane's willingness to roll the dice on aging players. Verlander joined the Astros during his age 34 season. Houston saw a wide range of results with Verlander. He won two Cy Young awards and two championships with the club, but also missed significant time due to injury, and struggled to get batter outs when healthy in 2024. Verlander was left off the postseason roster in his final year in Houston.
And we can't help but mention the Jose Abreu contract as a cautionary tale. Especially since the terms of his deal and his age are similar to Walker's.
But clearly, Crane was more comfortable making the cheaper 3-year deal with Walker over extending Kyle Tucker or paying Alex Bregman market value. Had the Astros kept one of those two players, they likely would have felt better about keeping Jon Singleton at first base and passing on Walker.
Only time will tell if the Astros made the right decisions. The trade haul for Kyle Tucker looks terrific so far, but we all know it's not wise to put too much stock in spring training games.
It's also worth noting, both Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez missed time in 2023 dealing with oblique injuries.