EVERY-THING SPORTS
How Houston Texans latest triumph unlocks thrilling, unexpected opportunities
Dec 21, 2023, 2:02 pm
EVERY-THING SPORTS
I'm the last person to be a prisoner of the moment. I will get caught up in certain moments. Like the time the Saints got hosed on that call against the Rams. I did call it the worst call in NFL playoff history. I still do. At least I'm consistent with that one. Typically, I reel myself in, and reset.
After the Texans beat the Titans, I caught that prisoner of the moment feeling. Some called it the biggest or best or most impressive win in Texans history. I was feeling some of those statements. I stepped back to re-center myself, then came back to the idea. This was a pretty big win. Where it ranks in Texans history, I'm not sure. But I think it was a huge win for other reasons. Two to be exact.
This win was the clinching factor for DeMeco Ryans to win coach of the year, and for Nick Caserio to win executive of the year. When you're missing your two prized rookies in starting quarterback C.J. Stroud and starting defensive end Will Anderson Jr, plus C.J.'s top targets, plus others, and you still pull off a win on the road against a division opponent coming off their biggest win of the season, what do you think should happen?
The team came into this season with little to no real expectations of making the playoffs. Some fans kept the faith and had those wild thoughts. Some would express as much very vigorously, I might add. The overwhelming majority figured they'd win maybe five to seven games at most. They'd been left for dead after previous terrible seasons. Talent was still an issue, even after they'd been on a path to respectability with their recent drafts and free agency findings. Most thought they'd be more competitive under DeMeco but needed more time.
14 games into the season, they're tied for first in the AFC South with three games left. There's a serious shot they make the playoffs. This team was put together over the last few years by Caserio. His previous coaching hires and talent fumbles aside, he's ultimately responsible for the guys on this roster being here. He's also partially responsible for DeMeco being here. Partially because DeMeco has a documented history here as a player. That, and the fact that I believe the McNair's had a lot to do with it also.
DeMeco has completely changed the culture on Kirby. I've seen fans go from despair and pessimism to elation and long-term optimism. Players believe they can beat any other team in front of them. People in the organization have always been pleasant but seem to have a lot more pep in their step. It's a lot more fun when you're winning. What DeMeco did was restore the feeling of what's possible when you believe. Fans, players, staff, they all believe. Getting the players to buy in was easier for him since he's only 39 years old, recently removed from his playing days, has a track record of developing players, and came up the coaching ranks in a successful organization.
The work both guys have put in deserves to be recognized. The Texans have already more wins this season than they had the previous two seasons combined. Some of that was by design, given the state of the franchise a couple of seasons ago. Now, things have been totally turned around. Playoffs are now the expectation moving forward. Nothing else will suffice. There's cap space and a normal allotment of draft capital in the upcoming draft (minus 5th and 6th rounders, but an extra 4th). They have a pick in every round in the '25 draft. Stroud and Anderson Jr are both on rookie deals. Three fifths of the offensive line was re-signed this past offseason. Caserio and DeMeco have built something sustainable that's winning ahead of the schedule most had set for them. For that, they should both be recognized as the best in their respective categories this season.
The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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