HELP WANTED
What the Houston Texans coaching search will reveal about the organization's mindset
Jan 10, 2023, 12:58 pm
The Texans can't consider options like Josh McCown again. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
4 coaches
The Houston Texans are once again looking for a new head coach, the third under the tenure of general manager Nick Caserio.
In what has become a far too familiar process for the Texans, this year’s head coach search will reveal a lot about where the team’s frame of mind is.
Houston CEO Cal McNair and Caserio both spoke to reporters on Monday afternoon just hours removed from their decision to move on from head coach Lovie Smith. They spoke about where the team is and what the frame of mind is going forward.
We are live with Texans Chair and CEO Cal McNair + General Manager Nick Caserio. https://t.co/a0zCLfPUkv
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 9, 2023
One thing was made evident in Monday’s news conference — both McNair and Caserio realize the team is at a potential turning point with the plethora of draft capital, an improving cap space and the young talent already on the roster.
“We feel like there is a strong list of potential head coach candidates, and we are excited to work with them,” McNair said. “We are going to pick the best coach to take this team into our next future with significant draft capital, salary cap space and [a] talented, young roster.”
It’s the Caserio and McNair show now. They are running it all. Both acknowledged the owner will be more hands on in this search, and Caserio also said this time around the process will involve more input from people within the organization.
The Texans will have the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. In what will forever be the long-lasting impact of Smith’s tenure, leading Houston to a Week 18 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, which dropped the team out of holding the No. 1 pick. Caserio and whoever they bring in as the new head coach will be tasked with taking the cards they currently hold and turning it into a concrete foundation for years to come.
Regardless of what the Chicago Bears do with the No. 1 pick, the Texans are guaranteed the option to pick either Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud. They will also be in position to get almost any other player they want too if they opt to not take a quarterback.
2023 needs to be the year the Texans get their guy. The right guy.
“That is what we are fixated on doing,” Caserio said.
The clock is ticking. The general manager acknowledged it himself.
Caserio is entering year three with Houston. He inherited a debacle of a roster that was completely destroyed when Deshaun Watson said he wanted out.
Since then, Houston has fired David Culley and Smith after just one year at the helm. While neither were considered to be the long-term answers as the team’s leader, removing them after one year has only worsened the view of the team from the outside.
Caserio said the team constantly evaluates at the end of the season. There has not been enough progress made in multiple areas throughout the team, he added. Houston’s next leader will be tasked with prioritizing the players, creating a vision and being collaborative with all other departments around the organization, the general manager said.
The time for lame-duck coaches is over. How the Texans approach this search will say a lot about the team. With 11 total draft picks as of now, five of which are in the first three rounds, Houston’s ability to develop that young talent will be pivotal.
Houston cannot afford to have another Culley. The Texans cannot entertain a Josh McCown. It’s time to get the right guy.
If they do, the team might just turn a corner with a fan base that is desperate to have something, anything, to cheer for when it comes to its pro football team.
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So where does one turn now in Houston for mediocre, overpriced salsa? I kid, I kid. While wondering if Breggy Baked Beans are on the horizon. Congrats to Alex Bregman and agent Scott Boras for landing an on its face outlandish three-year 120-million dollar contract with the Boston Red Sox. With deferred money part of the deal the contract will be valuated in the neighborhood of “only” three years 90 million. Would Bregman have taken that from the Astros if offered? The Astros’ six-year 156-million dollar proposal was 26 mil per season. Bregman has the right to opt out after each of the first two seasons of his BoSox deal. If his decline (while still a very good player) of the last two seasons continues, or even if he holds steady, there is near zero chance of Bregman opting out unless he hates life in New England. At the end of the three years, will Bregman be able to land a three-year 66 million-dollar deal when he’s about to turn 34 years old? That plus the 90 mil with deferrals accounted for in his new deal would total 156 million. Massachusetts taxes personal income of just over a million dollars and upward at a nine percent rate. Playing half his games in the Bay State, Bregman will pay Massachusetts tax on half his salary.
Reminders...
Bregman obviously had an excellent Astros’ career, among non-pitchers he is top 10 all-time, but the excellence was frontloaded. Over Bregman’s first three big seasons he compiled a .289 batting average and .924 OPS. Elite numbers. Over the five seasons since: .261 and .795. Good, nothing legendary. After his monster MVP runner-up 2019 season (stats aided by the juiced balls of that season) Bregman was on a strong early Hall of Fame track. Now not so much, without some offensive resurgence. Fenway Park should suit Bregman well. He’ll bang singles and doubles off of the Green Monster, though the much higher than Crawford Boxes wall will not goose his home run numbers. In his time with the Astros Bregman mashed at Fenway with a .375 batting average and 1.240 OPS. That’s in a statistically not very significant 98 regular season plate appearances.
It is myth that Bregman in the postseason was some relentless hitting machine. He posted phenomenal numbers over seven Division Series batting .333 with an OPS over 1.000. Over 68 American League Championship Series and World Series games: batting average .196, OPS sub-.700.
For his career, Bregman’s worst month of performance by far has been April (plus any days in March, .737 OPS). In 2024 Bregman was baseball garbage into mid-May. Should a typical slow start happen again, we’ll see what the Fenway faithful patience level is. By far, Bregman’s best batting month has been August (.992 OPS). As it works out, both Astros-Red Sox series are in August this year. First in Boston August 1-3 then in Houston August 11-13.
Who's on third?
Over the last two seasons combined, new Astros’ third baseman Isaac Paredes has been as good offensively as Bregman. That includes Paredes pretty much stinking for two months in Chicago after being dealt from the Rays to the Cubs. Paredes, who turns 26 years old on Tuesday, was an AL All-Star last season. Bregman, who turns 31 March 30, was last an All-Star in 2019. The defensive drop-off from Bregman to Paredes is a fairly steep one.
There is no question that Bregman’s official departure weakens the Astros via a domino effect. Had Bregman wound up staying here, Paredes would have shifted to second base with Jose Altuve primarily in left field. Now, 600-plus plate appearances that Bregman would have taken project to be divided among Mauricio Dubon, Ben Gamel, Zach Dezenzo, and others. That projects as a substantial offensive downgrade. The lineup net result of the Astros’ offseason is negative. Christian Walker and Paredes joining the infield in lieu of Jon Singleton and Bregman is fine. Kyle Tucker out, hodge-podge in in the outfield, oh boy.
Alex Bregman is an unquestioned gamer, leader, and would seem to have the temperament to take well to the more intense baseball environment of Boston relative to that in Houston. Yankee fans should reeeeally love him now!
New beginnings
Considering baseball wasn’t invented until more than a century later, the poet Alexander Pope did not have baseball in mind when in 1732 he wrote “Hope springs eternal (in the human breast).” It works though. Other than the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies, Major League teams have convened in Florida or Arizona thinking if things break right this could be their year! I’d probably put the Miami Marlins in with the ChiSox and Rockies. Many Astros’ fans are strongly disgruntled over the departures of Bregman and Kyle Tucker. This team still has “gruntlement” potential. The batting order appears Morganna-level (Google as necessary) top heavy, but one through five stacks well versus most other lineups. In the American League only the Mariners, Yankees, and maybe Royals have starting pitching rotations that should rate above the Astros’ rotation. Let the countdown to Opening Day begin!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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