TALE OF THE TAPE
Houston Texans banking on these vital factors in showdown against Colts
Oct 24, 2024, 4:02 pm
Will the Texans' pass protection improve this week? Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.
Indianapolis (4-3) at Houston (5-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT, CBS
BetMGM NFL Odds: Texans by 6.
Against the spread: Indianapolis 6-1; Houston 3-3-1.
Series record: Colts lead 33-12-1.
Last meeting: Texans beat Colts 29-27 on Sept. 8, in Indianapolis.
Last week: Colts beat Dolphins 16-10; Texans lost to Packers 24-22.
Colts offense: overall (16), rush (14), pass (17), scoring (18).
Colts defense: overall (29), rush (31), pass (23), scoring (T12).
Texans offense: overall (11), rush (15), pass (10), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (2), rush (8), pass (4), scoring (17).
Turnover differential: Colts plus-2, Texans plus-3.
Colts player to watch
RB Jonathan Taylor. Despite the Colts optimism each of the past three weeks, Taylor has continued to sit out. Now, he appears to be close to fully recovered from the sprained ankle that knocked him out late in the victory over Pittsburgh on Sept. 29. It’s unclear how much Taylor will play — or how effective he’ll be — but having Taylor in the backfield will only make QB Anthony Richardson's ability to run more of an option.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud. The second-year pro looks to bounce back after throwing for a career-low 86 yards without a TD pass last week. The Texans are focused on improving his protection after he was sacked four times and hit another seven in the loss to Green Bay. He’s been great at home this season, going 3-0 with 936 yards passing.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. the Indianapolis run defense. Mixon has had at least 100 yards rushing in each of the three full games he’s played this season. The former Bengal, who is in his first year in Houston, had 115 yards rushing and ran for two touchdowns last week for his 10th career game with at least two rushing scores. Now Mixon, who ran for a season-high 159 yards and a TD in Week 1 against the Colts, will face a run defense which ranks 31st in the NFL by allowing 159.9 yards a game. Indianapolis has allowed at least 185 yards rushing three times this season, capped by 188 yards last week against Miami.
Key injuries
Indy’s injury list finally appears to be shrinking. Richardson (right hip) and Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly (calf) returned last week against Miami. Taylor is scheduled to return Sunday at Houston and All-Pro DT DeForest Buckner (sprained ankle) returned to practice Wednesday. WRs Michael Pittman Jr. (back), Josh Downs (toe) and Alec Pierce (shoulder) have continued to play through their injuries, leaving one big question mark this weekend — LB E.J. Speed (knee), who missed last week’s game. … Houston LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and S Jimmie Ward (groin) missed Sunday’s game and could be out again this week after missing practice. ... LB Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) and CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder) returned to practice after missing time but coach DeMeco Ryans wouldn't say if they'll play Sunday.
Series notes
Houston has won three of the past four matchups, the past two by a total of six points — both in Indy. ... This will be the third meeting between these franchises in an eight-game stretch. ... Stroud and Richardson were selected two picks apart in the 2023 NFL draft and they developed a friendship while preparing for the draft. But they’ve only played against one another twice. Richardson won the first meeting in Week 2 of 2023, rushing for two scores in Houston before leaving with a concussion. Stroud won the rematch in September.
Stats and stuff
Sunday will mark the second matchup this season between Colts DBs coach Ron Milus and his son, Texas defensive assistant Ryan Milus. ... The Colts have won four of their past five since starting the season 0-2. ... Indy is 4-9-1 in division games since the start of the 2022 season. But the Colts can even the season series with Houston and pull into a tie for the AFC South lead with a victory. ... Indy’s 31 plays of 20 or more yards this season are the fourth most in the NFL this season. ... Pittman needs 2 yards receiving to reach 4,000 in his five-year career. ... Taylor needs 78 total yards to pass Hall of Famer Lenny Moore (6,040 yards) for No. 4 in franchise history. ... Richardson and 39-year-old Joe Flacco have thrown a total of 10 TD passes this season. ... Pierce leads the NFL with an average of 25.5 yards per catch and has a league-high five receptions of 40 or more yards. ... Colts DE Laiatu Latu’s two sacks are tied with Jonah Elliss of Denver for the most among NFL rookies. ... LB Zaire Franklin leads the NFL in tackles with 78. ... CB Jaylon Jones is one of seven players to pick off two passes in a game this season. His eight passes defensed are also tied for No. 5 in the league. … The Texans have forced seven turnovers combined in their past two games. … Houston WR Stefon Diggs has had at least 65 yards receiving in four of his past five games. He has two TD receptions in each of his past two games against the Colts. … WR Tank Dell, who didn’t have a catch last week, had seven receptions for 72 yards a touchdown in the previous game against the Colts in Houston. … DE Danielle Hunter has had a sack in two straight games. … DE Will Anderson has had at least one tackle for loss in three straight games and at least one sack in his past two. He is tied for sixth in the NFL with 6½ sacks this season. … DT Tim Settle had two tackles for losses and a sack last week. … LB Neville Hewitt led the team with a season-high nine tackles last week and had an interception. … S Calen Bullock is tied for first among rookie in the league with three interceptions. He had an interception in the first meeting with Indianapolis. … CB Derek Stingley had six tackles, including one for a loss and defended a pass last week. ... LB Devin White, a Pro Bowler in 2021 with Tampa Bay, signed with Houston on Wednesday.
Fantasy tip
Mixon should be a good pickup this week against Indy’s struggling run defense after he’s combined for 217 yards rushing with three rushing TDs and one touchdown reception in the two games since returning from injury.
Most Popular
SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome
Listen Live
Expectations
The Texans are favored to win the AFC South for a third straight season with a team led by young stars quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. Stroud’s strong first two years helped the Texans turn things around and this year they’ll try to reach the playoffs in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history. Stroud will be directing a new offense led by first-time offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who took over after Bobby Slowik was fired this offseason following Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. General manager Nick Caserio also beefed up the team’s receiving corps, led by Nico Collins, by adding veteran Christian Kirk and drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. Coach DeMeco Ryans has vowed the offensive line will be better this season after Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, which was second-most in the league. But it’s difficult to see how his protection will be better after they traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and didn’t make any big moves to replace him. Defensively, Anderson should take another step forward in his second year playing with veteran Danielle Hunter after the third-overall pick in the 2023 draft had 17 sacks combined in his first two seasons. Cornerback Derek Stingley returns to lead a talented young secondary after earning first team AP All-Pro honors last season when he had five interceptions and defended 18 passes.
New faces
OC Nick Caley, WR Jayden Higgins, WR Christian Kirk, WR Jaylin Noel, LT Cam Robinson, RB Nick Chubb, RT Aireontae Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews.
Key losses
LT Laremy Tunsil, WR John Metchie III, G Kenyon Green, TE Brevin Jordan, CB Eric Murray, WR Robert Woods, CB Kris Boyd.
Strengths
Stroud and Houston’s stacked receiving group should be the stars of the team this season. The 2023 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has been great in his first two seasons to bring the Texans back into contention after an awful stretch. His interception rate was up last season but he’s looking for improvement this season in Caley’s offense, which he has described as “exciting.” He’ll have plenty of strong targets to throw to, led by Collins, who had a second straight 1,000-yard season last year despite missing five games with injuries. He’ll be joined by Kirk, who should fill in at the slot with Tank Dell likely to miss all season recovering from an injury he suffered in December. Higgins and Noel come to Houston after combining for 2,377 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns last season at Iowa State.
Weaknesses
It’s hard to see how the offensive line will be improved this season with Tunsil gone to Washington. Though he was penalty-prone, he was the team’s most consistent lineman. They completely revamped the line after his trade and return just one starter from last year’s group. They’ll likely rely on rookie Ersery to protect Stroud’s blind side after taking him in the second round of the draft. He started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota. Veteran Tytus Howard returns at right tackle after starting 16 games there last season. The center is Jake Andrews in his first year in Houston and he returns after missing all of last season with an injury before being released by the Patriots. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and right guard Ed Ingram are also new to the team.
Camp development
Houston’s secondary sustained a big blow in camp when safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered a leg injury. The injury isn’t season-ending but he is likely to miss significant time. Gardner-Johnson is in his first year in Houston after he was acquired from the Eagles in March in exchange for left guard Kenyon Green. He was expected to be the team’s starting free safety after the Texans lost Eric Murray in free agency to the Jaguars. The Texans will also be without backup Jimmie Ward indefinitely after he was placed on the commissioner exempt list Tuesday as he faces a felony domestic violence charge after a June arrest.
Fantasy player to watch
Collins should have another big year after finishing with more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. He’s had 15 touchdowns combined in the last two seasons despite missing seven games with injuries.
BetMGM Sportsbook
Win Super Bowl: 35-1.