TALE OF THE TAPE
Houston Texans banking on these vital factors in showdown against Colts
Oct 24, 2024, 4:02 pm
Will the Texans' pass protection improve this week? Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.
Indianapolis (4-3) at Houston (5-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT, CBS
BetMGM NFL Odds: Texans by 6.
Against the spread: Indianapolis 6-1; Houston 3-3-1.
Series record: Colts lead 33-12-1.
Last meeting: Texans beat Colts 29-27 on Sept. 8, in Indianapolis.
Last week: Colts beat Dolphins 16-10; Texans lost to Packers 24-22.
Colts offense: overall (16), rush (14), pass (17), scoring (18).
Colts defense: overall (29), rush (31), pass (23), scoring (T12).
Texans offense: overall (11), rush (15), pass (10), scoring (14).
Texans defense: overall (2), rush (8), pass (4), scoring (17).
Turnover differential: Colts plus-2, Texans plus-3.
Colts player to watch
RB Jonathan Taylor. Despite the Colts optimism each of the past three weeks, Taylor has continued to sit out. Now, he appears to be close to fully recovered from the sprained ankle that knocked him out late in the victory over Pittsburgh on Sept. 29. It’s unclear how much Taylor will play — or how effective he’ll be — but having Taylor in the backfield will only make QB Anthony Richardson's ability to run more of an option.
Texans player to watch
QB C.J. Stroud. The second-year pro looks to bounce back after throwing for a career-low 86 yards without a TD pass last week. The Texans are focused on improving his protection after he was sacked four times and hit another seven in the loss to Green Bay. He’s been great at home this season, going 3-0 with 936 yards passing.
Key matchup
Houston RB Joe Mixon vs. the Indianapolis run defense. Mixon has had at least 100 yards rushing in each of the three full games he’s played this season. The former Bengal, who is in his first year in Houston, had 115 yards rushing and ran for two touchdowns last week for his 10th career game with at least two rushing scores. Now Mixon, who ran for a season-high 159 yards and a TD in Week 1 against the Colts, will face a run defense which ranks 31st in the NFL by allowing 159.9 yards a game. Indianapolis has allowed at least 185 yards rushing three times this season, capped by 188 yards last week against Miami.
Key injuries
Indy’s injury list finally appears to be shrinking. Richardson (right hip) and Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly (calf) returned last week against Miami. Taylor is scheduled to return Sunday at Houston and All-Pro DT DeForest Buckner (sprained ankle) returned to practice Wednesday. WRs Michael Pittman Jr. (back), Josh Downs (toe) and Alec Pierce (shoulder) have continued to play through their injuries, leaving one big question mark this weekend — LB E.J. Speed (knee), who missed last week’s game. … Houston LB Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and S Jimmie Ward (groin) missed Sunday’s game and could be out again this week after missing practice. ... LB Henry To’oTo’o (concussion) and CB Kamari Lassiter (shoulder) returned to practice after missing time but coach DeMeco Ryans wouldn't say if they'll play Sunday.
Series notes
Houston has won three of the past four matchups, the past two by a total of six points — both in Indy. ... This will be the third meeting between these franchises in an eight-game stretch. ... Stroud and Richardson were selected two picks apart in the 2023 NFL draft and they developed a friendship while preparing for the draft. But they’ve only played against one another twice. Richardson won the first meeting in Week 2 of 2023, rushing for two scores in Houston before leaving with a concussion. Stroud won the rematch in September.
Stats and stuff
Sunday will mark the second matchup this season between Colts DBs coach Ron Milus and his son, Texas defensive assistant Ryan Milus. ... The Colts have won four of their past five since starting the season 0-2. ... Indy is 4-9-1 in division games since the start of the 2022 season. But the Colts can even the season series with Houston and pull into a tie for the AFC South lead with a victory. ... Indy’s 31 plays of 20 or more yards this season are the fourth most in the NFL this season. ... Pittman needs 2 yards receiving to reach 4,000 in his five-year career. ... Taylor needs 78 total yards to pass Hall of Famer Lenny Moore (6,040 yards) for No. 4 in franchise history. ... Richardson and 39-year-old Joe Flacco have thrown a total of 10 TD passes this season. ... Pierce leads the NFL with an average of 25.5 yards per catch and has a league-high five receptions of 40 or more yards. ... Colts DE Laiatu Latu’s two sacks are tied with Jonah Elliss of Denver for the most among NFL rookies. ... LB Zaire Franklin leads the NFL in tackles with 78. ... CB Jaylon Jones is one of seven players to pick off two passes in a game this season. His eight passes defensed are also tied for No. 5 in the league. … The Texans have forced seven turnovers combined in their past two games. … Houston WR Stefon Diggs has had at least 65 yards receiving in four of his past five games. He has two TD receptions in each of his past two games against the Colts. … WR Tank Dell, who didn’t have a catch last week, had seven receptions for 72 yards a touchdown in the previous game against the Colts in Houston. … DE Danielle Hunter has had a sack in two straight games. … DE Will Anderson has had at least one tackle for loss in three straight games and at least one sack in his past two. He is tied for sixth in the NFL with 6½ sacks this season. … DT Tim Settle had two tackles for losses and a sack last week. … LB Neville Hewitt led the team with a season-high nine tackles last week and had an interception. … S Calen Bullock is tied for first among rookie in the league with three interceptions. He had an interception in the first meeting with Indianapolis. … CB Derek Stingley had six tackles, including one for a loss and defended a pass last week. ... LB Devin White, a Pro Bowler in 2021 with Tampa Bay, signed with Houston on Wednesday.
Fantasy tip
Mixon should be a good pickup this week against Indy’s struggling run defense after he’s combined for 217 yards rushing with three rushing TDs and one touchdown reception in the two games since returning from injury.
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Coming off the bye week the Houston Texans received good news as both LB Christian Harris and LG Kenyon Green have been designated to return from injury.
The timing couldn't be better with Harris considering the loss of LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who was suspended for three games for his hit on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans hasn't announced a return to game action for Harris or Green, the plan is to see how they progress over the course of the week before making any decisions.
When joining the Texans YouTube channel this week, Ryans described Green as a “player that can move people in the run game,” but also acknowledged his issues in pass protection that need to be cleaned up.
While Green was only on the field for three of the whopping 8 sacks on CJ Stroud the last time he started a game, it must be pointed out that he was atrocious that Thursday night against the Jets.
And that was following up a game against the Colts that got him benched for his struggles. If not for Jarrett Patterson suffering a concussion against Indy, Green shouldn't have been on the field versus New York.
That's why Ryans' comments about Green returning are so concerning. “If he's ready to get back out there, I think he can help us,” said the Texans head coach.
To be fair, it's not like the Texans have had much success with Juice Scruggs at guard and Patterson at center. But at least they haven't been a complete disaster in pass protection like they were with Green in the lineup. Green was getting beat quick or missing assignments that led to immediate pressures and big hits on Stroud.
Ground and pound?
There's a narrative out there that Green is the better option when it comes to run blocking. But no matter how you frame it, he was one of the worst, if not the worst, guard in the NFL according to ProFootballFocus before suffering the injury.
Somehow that's supposed to change after returning from a dislocated shoulder? I don't buy it. And considering the Texans' upcoming schedule, they're probably going to struggle with running the ball against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Titans, whether he plays or not.
Those teams are strong against the run, and the Texans would be wise to try to beat them with the passing game, considering the matchup.
Another narrative out there is that GM Nick Caserio wants to give Green every possible opportunity to succeed because he spent a 1st-round pick on Green, and passed up several Pro Bowl players in doing so.
For me, that argument falls a bit flat. Caserio used a 2nd-round pick on Scruggs, so he has a lot invested in both players. However, Scruggs isn't without criticism. He's been an obvious weakness at guard, though he did play much better against the Jaguars last week. It's the Jags, read into that what you will. But Caserio did admit recently that Scruggs is a better center than guard.
Perhaps the plan is to put Scruggs back at center with Green returning. But that could spell trouble as well. The communication issues on the o-line seem to have improved with Patterson at center.
At the end of the day, the number one job for the o-line has to be protecting Stroud, who has been the second-most sacked QB this season (41).
He's taken a sack in every game this year, and has been sacked four or more times in six of thirteen games. Four of those six games featured Green as the starting guard.
Up next
Houston will get their first test after the bye week as they host the 6–7 Dolphins, who still have something to play for. Despite the Texans' up and down season, they can clinch a playoff berth with a win over Miami, and a loss from the Colts.