THE PALLILOG
Here's why Houston Texans have a lot more on the line than just a win over Colts
Oct 24, 2024, 2:20 pm
The Texans host the Colts this Sunday! Composite Getty Image.
The AFC South title isn’t on the line Sunday at NRG Stadium, but should the Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts the only way they don’t successfully defend their division crown is by blowing it. Having edged Indy 29-27 in the season opener, the Texans can sweep the season series and tiebreaker that goes with that. A victory boosts the Texans to 6-2 and drops the Colts to 4-4. That would mean that if the Texans went a disappointing 4-5 over their remaining games, they’d still win the South unless the Colts went 7-2 or better. Consider that after leaving Houston three of Indy’s next four opponents are the Vikings, Bills, and Lions. The chances of the Colts winning seven of their final nine games seem closer to none than slim. On the flip side, should the Texans drop their second straight game, the division race is even as we all go to sleep Sunday night.
Stroud vs. Richardson
While C.J. Stroud is coming off the most feeble passing performance of his young career (a pitiful 86 yards at Green Bay), at least everyone knows he is very good. The Colts’ starting quarterback is not good. Not good yet at least. They are committed to scatter-armed second year man Anthony Richardson. Having spent the fourth overall pick in the 2023 draft on him (two selections after the Texans lucked into Stroud), the Colts understandably will give Richardson ample time to grow (they hope). But 39-year-old backup Joe Flacco throws the ball much better. Missing all but four games of his rookie season due to injury, and already having missed two full games and most of a third to injury this season, no doubt has retarded Richardson’s development. But an inaccurate thrower has a ceiling well below the clouds, and questions about Richardson’s accuracy were real when he was in college at Florida. So far this season Richardson is completing a wretched 49 percent of his passes with three touchdown passes and six interceptions. Flacco has thrown seven TDs vs. one pick. Richardson’s six INTs have come in just 101 pass attempts. As a rookie Stroud racked up 499 attempts with just five INTs. Richardson has also fumbled four times already this season. Nevertheless, he has big play potential because the arm is huge (remember the 60-yard bomb he landed against the Texans) and Richardson is a superior athlete. He ran the ball 14 times this past Sunday as the Colts uglied out a 16-10 win over offensively helpless Miami. To help their cause this Sunday the Colts may get back running back Jonathan Taylor after three games missed due to a high-ankle sprain. That would make the Texans’ defensive task much tougher, though in the opener the Texans limited Taylor to just 48 yards on 16 carries with a longest run of a mere seven yards.
The Texans meanwhile continue to endure offensive life without Nico Collins. Without Joe Mixon the Texans basically have no running game, without Collins the passing game is hamstrung (cruel irony). No other Texans’ receiver gives Stroud a target who wins 50/50 balls by out-sizing and/or out-talenting defensive backs. Neither Stefon Diggs nor Tank Dell is averaging 10 yards per reception. Diggs is at 9.9, Dell, last season before injury such a deep threat, is at 9.7. The “throw it up for Nico to make a play” option is missed that much more with the Texans' too often sorry pass-blocking. The Packers’ non-elite pass rush regularly baffled and beat the Texans' pass protection. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and offensive line coach Chris Strausser need to be better. On the player side left guard Kenyon Green remains the clear weakest link. Green and company may have to deal with Colts’ d-line beast DeForest Buckner who is set to return from his own high-ankle sprain after being out five games. Buckner registered a sack and a half in the season’s first meeting with the Texans.
Texans sign notable free agent
Interesting signing this week with the Texans adding linebacker Devin White. There is no sign that Christian Harris is nearing return. After missing the Green Bay game Azeez Al-Shaair is iffy this week, ditto Henry To’o To’o. White’s pedigree is better than all of them, but it obviously says something that he was available off the street. A stud at LSU, White was the fifth pick in the 2019 Draft. In the 2020 season he helped Tampa Bay win a Super Bowl. His 2021 season earned a Pro Bowl selection. After losing his starting job with the Buccaneers late last season all White found as a free agent was a one-year deal with Philadelphia. He never made the Eagles’ gameday 53-man roster, inactive for four games before missing one for “personal reasons,” then getting cut. What gives? White best realize that if he shows little with the Texans his career could be toast at just 26 years old.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
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The phrase most associated with the late former Oakland-Los Angeles-Oakland Raiders’ owner Al Davis was “Just win baby.” One has to think Al would strongly approve of the Houston Astros. Going to the fifth inning Sunday against the Mariners the Astros were facing a 3-0 deficit and staring at the prospect of being swept out of Seattle and having their American League West division lead slashed to just two games. Now after roaring from behind with 11 unanswered runs to take the series finale in the Emerald City, and then sweeping three games from the Diamondbacks in Phoenix, the Astros stand six games up with 60 games to go. So, if the Astros play just .500 ball the rest of the way (which would have them finish with 90 victories), the Mariners have to play .600 ball to catch them. If somehow the Astros are to maintain their season long win pace to the finish line they’d close with 95 wins, and the race is already over unless someone thinks the M’s are poised to uncork a finishing kick of 41-19 or better. It’s quite a pleasing perch from which the Astros survey the standings. Coupled with the freefalling Detroit Tigers having dropped nine of their last ten games, the Astros amazingly start this homestand sporting the best record in the entire American League. On the homestand they follow four games against the team with the second-worst record in the American League (Athletics) with three versus the team with the second-worst record in the National League (Nationals). I know, I know. There is fear of the Astros playing down to the competition, but that is not the way to look at it. A bad Major League team can beat a good team in a series at any time. If it happens it happens, but it wouldn’t mean it happened only because the Astros didn’t take their opponent seriously. This isn’t the NBA.
Trade deadline looming
Of course, It hasn’t been all good news with Isaac Paredes badly injuring a hamstring Sunday. Paredes could be back in three weeks (doubtful), he could miss the rest of the season. GET WELL SOON JEREMY PENA! Lance McCullers’s latest Injured List stint could be considered addition by subtraction for the Astros’ starting rotation. Whether impacted by his blister issue, Lance was lousy in four of his last five starts. So, one week from the trade deadline, if general manager Dana Brown has the ammo to get one deal done, where does he make the upgrade? The left-handed hitter everyone knows the Astros can use regardless of Yordan Alvarez’s status is a natural priority. With the Astros’ weak farm system it would seem difficult for Brown to put forth the winning offer for the top bats that could be in play. That probably rings even truer now, since if he wasn’t already untouchable, Brice Matthews may have cemented untouchable status by darn near winning the first two games of the Diamondbacks series by himself. Matthews is going to struggle mightily to hit for a good average if he can’t make notable improvement in the contact department, but the power is obvious, as is the athleticism in the field. The 23-year-old Matthews and 22-year-old Cam Smith (though presently mired in a three for 36 slump) are the clear (and right now only) two young shining beacons for the lineup’s future.
You can't have enough pitching
While Brandon Walter has been a revelation, a starting pitcher would make sense unless the decision is to hope Spencer Arrighetti and/or Cristian Javier can contribute meaningfully upon return to the big leagues, likely sometime next month. Going after a reliever or two may make more sense in terms of availability and transaction cost. Overall the Astros’ bullpen has been excellent, but Bryan Abreu is the only trustworthy right-handed option for Joe Espada. Back to Walter. Barely two months ago no way Walter himself would have believed he’d be where he is now. Nine starts since being summoned basically out of desperation, Walter has a 3.35 earned run average, and a stunning 13 to one strikeout-to-walk ratio with his 52 strikeouts against a measly four walks allowed in 53 2/3 innings. Walter has pitched fabulously in seven of his nine starts. He only has two wins, but that’s because in five of the six Walter starts the Astros didn’t win the game they failed to score more than two runs. Walter turns 29 years old in September. His only prior big league experience was 23 innings in relief with a 6.26 ERA for the Red Sox two years ago. The Bosox released him last August, the Astros signed him basically as minor league depth. Look at him (and the Astros) now.
For Astro-centric conversation, join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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