CAUSE FOR PAUSE
How Texans' eye-opening splurge puts another dent in their war chest
Mar 6, 2024, 3:37 pm
CAUSE FOR PAUSE
The Houston Texans have a lot of work to do over the next week with free agency getting under way on Wednesday and having plenty of holes to fill, especially on defense.
The Texans addressed tight end on Tuesday, re-signing Dalton Schultz to a 3-year, $36 million contract extension. The action didn't slow down on Wednesday as reports indicate Houston is re-signing kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn to a surprising 3-year, $15.9 million deal.
According to KPRC's Aaron Wilson, this makes Fairbairn the fourth-highest paid kicker in the league.
The highest paid kickers are Justin Tucker (Baltimore Ravens, four years, $24 million, $6 million average), followed by Matt Gay (Indianapolis Colts, four years, $22.5 million, $5.62 million average), Graham Gano (three years, $16.5 million, $5.5 million) (#Texans Ka'imi…
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) March 6, 2024
On the surface, this looks like a pretty fair deal based on his performance last year. He made 27 field goals in 28 attempts during the regular season. He also recorded 21 extra points in 22 attempts. It's hard to complain about a kicker that only misses two kicks in the regular season.
But he did miss five games due to injury (quad) in 2023. There's no telling what his final numbers would have been had he played all 17 games. But we can make some assumptions based off his performance in 2022 when he played every game.
That season he made 29 field goals in 31 attempts while also making all his extra points. Over the last two seasons, he's been terrific from long range, making 11 out of 12 fifty-plus yard field goals.
Based on these numbers, I'm not surprised the Texans wanted to retain him. When Fairbairn was out, Matt Ammendola took his place and made 6 of 9 field goal attempts. He also missed both kicks from fifty-plus yards. The Texans got to experience life with a borderline NFL kicker, and they didn't love it.
So what's the problem?
I only have two issues with the signing. One, I don't think he's the fourth-best kicker in the NFL. And in general, paying $5 million a year for a kicker seems high. I would have liked to see them draft a kicker that they could pay on a rookie contract for the next several years. The Bengals drafted Evan McPherson in the 5th round of the 2021 NFL Draft and will only have to pay him $1 million this season.
He hasn't been quite as good as Fairbairn, but he also doesn't cost an extra $4 million a year. McPherson made every kick from under 50 yards in 2023. His 5 missed kicks all came from 50-plus yards. No great, but not bad.
My final and biggest concern with the contract has to be Fairbairn's clutch factor, or lack there of. He missed his two most important kicks of the season.
The first was an extra point against the Colts in the final game of the regular season. The winner of this game would cash their ticket to the postseason. CJ Stroud drove the Texans down the field late in the fourth quarter and scored a touchdown, putting the Texans on top. Fairbairn then misses the extra point, leaving Gardner Minshew with a shot to tie the game with a TD, and win it with an extra point.
Luckily for Houston, Minshew threw a pass just a little behind his running back on fourth down in the red zone. Which caused Indy to turn the ball over on downs. Texans win 23-19.
The second critical kick he missed was a 47-yard field goal against the Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs. The kick cost the Texans a lot of momentum, as they would have gone into half-time with a 13-10 lead. I'm not saying that would have changed the outcome of the 34-10 loss. But it is another example of Fairbairn missing an important kick in a must-win game.
Hopefully Ka'imi has learned from those moments on the big stage. The Texans haven't played in many high stakes games over the last few years.
But moving forward, they should be in a lot of them. And they're going to need their kicker to make his kicks in the biggest of moments if they want to ascend to the next level and challenge teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills in the AFC.
Isaac Paredes has been a steady force in the middle of the Astros’ order, but a tweaked hamstring suffered during Thursday’s win over the White Sox may force Houston to recalibrate, again.
If Paredes misses time, the most logical shuffle would see Jose Altuve sliding back to second base, with Mauricio Dubón stepping in at third. It’s a reasonable patch. But internally, there’s also some intrigue around whether Cam Smith—currently thriving in right field—could slide back to his original position on the infield. The idea isn’t without merit; Smith is the club’s best offensive option at third in Paredes’ absence. But defensively, it’s hard to justify moving him right now. Smith made several standout plays in the Chicago series, reinforcing just how important his glove has become to the Astros’ outfield defense. One thing is for sure, the Astros can't afford to play both Dubon and Brendon Rodgers in the infield regularly. The offense would take a huge hit.
Timing, however, might be on Houston’s side. The next stretch of games features the Twins, Athletics, and Angels—three teams the Astros can beat even while navigating lineup instability. It helps that Yainer Diaz and Christian Walker are showing signs of life at the plate. Diaz, in particular, has been red-hot, posting an OPS north of 1.200 over the past week. Walker is batting over .300 during that same span, giving the Astros enough firepower to survive short-term turbulence.
Elsewhere, the outfield presents its own set of choices. Jacob Melton has shown enough in the field to warrant a serious look as Chas McCormick’s replacement when he returns from injury. He’s still searching for consistency at the plate, batting under .200 in his first 10 big league games. But his arm and left-handed bat give manager Joe Espada a little more lineup flexibility—especially with Yordan Alvarez still out and the offense skewing right-handed.
For now, the Astros have room to adjust. But if Paredes ends up missing significant time, they’ll need more than just a few temporary solutions to keep their momentum going.
There's so much more to cover! Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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