CAUSE FOR PAUSE
How Texans' eye-opening splurge puts another dent in their war chest
Mar 6, 2024, 3:37 pm
The Texans gave Ka'imi Fairbairn a huge 3-year extension. Composite image by Brandon Strange.
The Houston Texans have a lot of work to do over the next week with free agency getting under way on Wednesday and having plenty of holes to fill, especially on defense.
The Texans addressed tight end on Tuesday, re-signing Dalton Schultz to a 3-year, $36 million contract extension. The action didn't slow down on Wednesday as reports indicate Houston is re-signing kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn to a surprising 3-year, $15.9 million deal.
According to KPRC's Aaron Wilson, this makes Fairbairn the fourth-highest paid kicker in the league.
The highest paid kickers are Justin Tucker (Baltimore Ravens, four years, $24 million, $6 million average), followed by Matt Gay (Indianapolis Colts, four years, $22.5 million, $5.62 million average), Graham Gano (three years, $16.5 million, $5.5 million) (#Texans Ka'imi…
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) March 6, 2024
On the surface, this looks like a pretty fair deal based on his performance last year. He made 27 field goals in 28 attempts during the regular season. He also recorded 21 extra points in 22 attempts. It's hard to complain about a kicker that only misses two kicks in the regular season.
But he did miss five games due to injury (quad) in 2023. There's no telling what his final numbers would have been had he played all 17 games. But we can make some assumptions based off his performance in 2022 when he played every game.
That season he made 29 field goals in 31 attempts while also making all his extra points. Over the last two seasons, he's been terrific from long range, making 11 out of 12 fifty-plus yard field goals.
Based on these numbers, I'm not surprised the Texans wanted to retain him. When Fairbairn was out, Matt Ammendola took his place and made 6 of 9 field goal attempts. He also missed both kicks from fifty-plus yards. The Texans got to experience life with a borderline NFL kicker, and they didn't love it.
So what's the problem?
I only have two issues with the signing. One, I don't think he's the fourth-best kicker in the NFL. And in general, paying $5 million a year for a kicker seems high. I would have liked to see them draft a kicker that they could pay on a rookie contract for the next several years. The Bengals drafted Evan McPherson in the 5th round of the 2021 NFL Draft and will only have to pay him $1 million this season.
He hasn't been quite as good as Fairbairn, but he also doesn't cost an extra $4 million a year. McPherson made every kick from under 50 yards in 2023. His 5 missed kicks all came from 50-plus yards. No great, but not bad.
My final and biggest concern with the contract has to be Fairbairn's clutch factor, or lack there of. He missed his two most important kicks of the season.
The first was an extra point against the Colts in the final game of the regular season. The winner of this game would cash their ticket to the postseason. CJ Stroud drove the Texans down the field late in the fourth quarter and scored a touchdown, putting the Texans on top. Fairbairn then misses the extra point, leaving Gardner Minshew with a shot to tie the game with a TD, and win it with an extra point.
Luckily for Houston, Minshew threw a pass just a little behind his running back on fourth down in the red zone. Which caused Indy to turn the ball over on downs. Texans win 23-19.
The second critical kick he missed was a 47-yard field goal against the Ravens in the divisional round of the playoffs. The kick cost the Texans a lot of momentum, as they would have gone into half-time with a 13-10 lead. I'm not saying that would have changed the outcome of the 34-10 loss. But it is another example of Fairbairn missing an important kick in a must-win game.
Hopefully Ka'imi has learned from those moments on the big stage. The Texans haven't played in many high stakes games over the last few years.
But moving forward, they should be in a lot of them. And they're going to need their kicker to make his kicks in the biggest of moments if they want to ascend to the next level and challenge teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills in the AFC.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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