THE PALLILOG
Crucial opportunities Texans must leverage versus Cowboys to continue playoff march
Nov 14, 2024, 6:05 pm
Keeping Ceedee Lamb under wraps is a top priority for Houston. Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images.
America can’t be wildly excited about having Texans-Cowboys as the upcoming Monday Night Football Matchup. Hard to imagine that anything can excite Cowboys fans these days. Maybe that their season is over in just eight more games? Jerry Jones announcing that he is going to sell the franchise (yeah right)? At 3-6 the Cowboys can’t be officially dead for another few weeks, but there are fat ladies singing all over the Metroplex. It is true that in each of the last four seasons a team that started its season 3-6 made the playoffs, but two of those that made it won garbage divisions with a losing record. There is a virtual zero chance of the Cowboys overtaking both the Eagles and Commanders. Most Texans fans enjoy Cowboys fan misery, though it’s not as if Texans fans have cause to be giddy right now. The team falling apart in the second half of consecutive games has that effect. But the Texans are 6-4 and leading their division, granted, the sorry division that is the AFC South. Just as the only American League Division the Astros would have won this year was the AL West, the Texans are quite fortunate to be grouped with three crummy teams in their division. But as always, play the course. The 10-7 record that won it last year won’t be necessary to sit atop what is a dung heap in 2024. The Texans have another game to go against the toothless Jaguars and two games left against the not worth remembering Titans. The Texans should finish 6-0 within the division. They could wind up 3-8 against everybody else and win the South at 9-8. Heck, 8-9 would probably be enough.
The addition of the 17th regular season game two years ago makes possible the occasional extra Texans-Cowboys matchup. Since the Texans stunned the Cowboys in their debut game in 2002, the teams have played every four seasons. Most recently that means 2022. The AFC South teams play the NFC North teams this season, so the Texans-Cowboys matchup is a result of both teams having won their divisions last year. There will be no Texans-Cowboys game next season. In 2026 the Cowboys will visit NRG Stadium. The Texans have never won in north Texas. They lost in their lone visit to the long since imploded Texas Stadium, and are 0-2 at AT&T Stadium.
Halftime adjust-much?
Since we’re pretty sure that offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik doesn’t take sleeping pills at halftime, it is near dumbfounding how badly his offense has gone night-night after intermission. The Texans haven’t scored a second half touchdown in over a month. That’s four straight games of nothing since their blowout win at New England October 13. Facing the Cowboys better be a tonic for what ails. Only the Carolina Panthers have given up more points per game. That and Nico Collins returning are two big plusses for the Texans’ offensive cause. The fewest receiving yards Collins has totaled in the five games he’s played this season is 78, and that came when he played only the first quarter versus the Bills before zinging his hamstring. Still, the Texans had Collins when they scored just 19 points against the Bears, and when they put up only seven in the butt-kicking they took from the Vikings. Collins is by far the Texans’ best wideout period, even more so as a red zone target with his size and talent in a tighter field. The 2024 Cowboys stink at a lot of things but their red zone defense is extra stinky, ranking dead last in the NFL, having given up touchdowns on more than 77 percent of opponent possessions that reach the Cowboys’ 20-yard-line. The Texans’ red zone defense has been lousy too, ranking 29th in the same category.
The tale of the quarterback tape in this one overwhelmingly favors the Texans. Not that focus is enough to guarantee performance, but one would presume C.J. Stroud is a very focused guy heading into this one coming off of his lousy second half showing against the Lions. Stroud’s two awful interceptions thrown Sunday night have him at six picked off this season, one more than his entire rookie campaign.
Dak Prescott was putting up the worst numbers of his career before suffering a season-ending hamstring injury. Nonetheless, the drop from Prescott to Cooper Rush is a steep one. Whether Rush or Trey Lance is taking the snaps Monday, so long as the Texans’ defense keeps CeeDee Lamb under some control, the Cowboys’ offense should be hard-pressed to sustain much. By the way, this is Prescott’s third major injury in the last five seasons. His four-year 240 million dollar contract extension starts next season. At least he can’t lay an egg in a playoff game this January.
Who's counting?
A reminder that over the last 27 seasons (for the first five of which there were noHouston Texans) the Texans have five playoff wins, the Cowboys have four, with neither playing in a Conference Championship game.
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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