THE PALLILOG
Crucial opportunities Texans must leverage versus Cowboys to continue playoff march
Nov 14, 2024, 6:05 pm
Keeping Ceedee Lamb under wraps is a top priority for Houston. Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images.
America can’t be wildly excited about having Texans-Cowboys as the upcoming Monday Night Football Matchup. Hard to imagine that anything can excite Cowboys fans these days. Maybe that their season is over in just eight more games? Jerry Jones announcing that he is going to sell the franchise (yeah right)? At 3-6 the Cowboys can’t be officially dead for another few weeks, but there are fat ladies singing all over the Metroplex. It is true that in each of the last four seasons a team that started its season 3-6 made the playoffs, but two of those that made it won garbage divisions with a losing record. There is a virtual zero chance of the Cowboys overtaking both the Eagles and Commanders. Most Texans fans enjoy Cowboys fan misery, though it’s not as if Texans fans have cause to be giddy right now. The team falling apart in the second half of consecutive games has that effect. But the Texans are 6-4 and leading their division, granted, the sorry division that is the AFC South. Just as the only American League Division the Astros would have won this year was the AL West, the Texans are quite fortunate to be grouped with three crummy teams in their division. But as always, play the course. The 10-7 record that won it last year won’t be necessary to sit atop what is a dung heap in 2024. The Texans have another game to go against the toothless Jaguars and two games left against the not worth remembering Titans. The Texans should finish 6-0 within the division. They could wind up 3-8 against everybody else and win the South at 9-8. Heck, 8-9 would probably be enough.
The addition of the 17th regular season game two years ago makes possible the occasional extra Texans-Cowboys matchup. Since the Texans stunned the Cowboys in their debut game in 2002, the teams have played every four seasons. Most recently that means 2022. The AFC South teams play the NFC North teams this season, so the Texans-Cowboys matchup is a result of both teams having won their divisions last year. There will be no Texans-Cowboys game next season. In 2026 the Cowboys will visit NRG Stadium. The Texans have never won in north Texas. They lost in their lone visit to the long since imploded Texas Stadium, and are 0-2 at AT&T Stadium.
Halftime adjust-much?
Since we’re pretty sure that offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik doesn’t take sleeping pills at halftime, it is near dumbfounding how badly his offense has gone night-night after intermission. The Texans haven’t scored a second half touchdown in over a month. That’s four straight games of nothing since their blowout win at New England October 13. Facing the Cowboys better be a tonic for what ails. Only the Carolina Panthers have given up more points per game. That and Nico Collins returning are two big plusses for the Texans’ offensive cause. The fewest receiving yards Collins has totaled in the five games he’s played this season is 78, and that came when he played only the first quarter versus the Bills before zinging his hamstring. Still, the Texans had Collins when they scored just 19 points against the Bears, and when they put up only seven in the butt-kicking they took from the Vikings. Collins is by far the Texans’ best wideout period, even more so as a red zone target with his size and talent in a tighter field. The 2024 Cowboys stink at a lot of things but their red zone defense is extra stinky, ranking dead last in the NFL, having given up touchdowns on more than 77 percent of opponent possessions that reach the Cowboys’ 20-yard-line. The Texans’ red zone defense has been lousy too, ranking 29th in the same category.
The tale of the quarterback tape in this one overwhelmingly favors the Texans. Not that focus is enough to guarantee performance, but one would presume C.J. Stroud is a very focused guy heading into this one coming off of his lousy second half showing against the Lions. Stroud’s two awful interceptions thrown Sunday night have him at six picked off this season, one more than his entire rookie campaign.
Dak Prescott was putting up the worst numbers of his career before suffering a season-ending hamstring injury. Nonetheless, the drop from Prescott to Cooper Rush is a steep one. Whether Rush or Trey Lance is taking the snaps Monday, so long as the Texans’ defense keeps CeeDee Lamb under some control, the Cowboys’ offense should be hard-pressed to sustain much. By the way, this is Prescott’s third major injury in the last five seasons. His four-year 240 million dollar contract extension starts next season. At least he can’t lay an egg in a playoff game this January.
Who's counting?
A reminder that over the last 27 seasons (for the first five of which there were noHouston Texans) the Texans have five playoff wins, the Cowboys have four, with neither playing in a Conference Championship game.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
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Coming off the bye week the Houston Texans received good news as both LB Christian Harris and LG Kenyon Green have been designated to return from injury.
The timing couldn't be better with Harris considering the loss of LB Azeez Al-Shaair, who was suspended for three games for his hit on Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans hasn't announced a return to game action for Harris or Green, the plan is to see how they progress over the course of the week before making any decisions.
When joining the Texans YouTube channel this week, Ryans described Green as a “player that can move people in the run game,” but also acknowledged his issues in pass protection that need to be cleaned up.
While Green was only on the field for three of the whopping 8 sacks on CJ Stroud the last time he started a game, it must be pointed out that he was atrocious that Thursday night against the Jets.
And that was following up a game against the Colts that got him benched for his struggles. If not for Jarrett Patterson suffering a concussion against Indy, Green shouldn't have been on the field versus New York.
That's why Ryans' comments about Green returning are so concerning. “If he's ready to get back out there, I think he can help us,” said the Texans head coach.
To be fair, it's not like the Texans have had much success with Juice Scruggs at guard and Patterson at center. But at least they haven't been a complete disaster in pass protection like they were with Green in the lineup. Green was getting beat quick or missing assignments that led to immediate pressures and big hits on Stroud.
Ground and pound?
There's a narrative out there that Green is the better option when it comes to run blocking. But no matter how you frame it, he was one of the worst, if not the worst, guard in the NFL according to ProFootballFocus before suffering the injury.
Somehow that's supposed to change after returning from a dislocated shoulder? I don't buy it. And considering the Texans' upcoming schedule, they're probably going to struggle with running the ball against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Titans, whether he plays or not.
Those teams are strong against the run, and the Texans would be wise to try to beat them with the passing game, considering the matchup.
Another narrative out there is that GM Nick Caserio wants to give Green every possible opportunity to succeed because he spent a 1st-round pick on Green, and passed up several Pro Bowl players in doing so.
For me, that argument falls a bit flat. Caserio used a 2nd-round pick on Scruggs, so he has a lot invested in both players. However, Scruggs isn't without criticism. He's been an obvious weakness at guard, though he did play much better against the Jaguars last week. It's the Jags, read into that what you will. But Caserio did admit recently that Scruggs is a better center than guard.
Perhaps the plan is to put Scruggs back at center with Green returning. But that could spell trouble as well. The communication issues on the o-line seem to have improved with Patterson at center.
At the end of the day, the number one job for the o-line has to be protecting Stroud, who has been the second-most sacked QB this season (41).
He's taken a sack in every game this year, and has been sacked four or more times in six of thirteen games. Four of those six games featured Green as the starting guard.
Up next
Houston will get their first test after the bye week as they host the 6–7 Dolphins, who still have something to play for. Despite the Texans' up and down season, they can clinch a playoff berth with a win over Miami, and a loss from the Colts.