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Here's an exciting, realistic path to victory for Houston Texans in home opener
Sep 13, 2023, 11:46 am
The Texans welcome the Colts to NRG on Sunday. Composite Getty Image.
dell stroud anderson stingley (1)
What: Colts @ Texans
When: 9/17 12pm CST kickoff
Where: Houston, TX NRG Stadium
TV/Radio: KHOU-TV, KILT-Radio
Betting Lines: Colts -1 (-110), O/U 40 (-110) *As of this writing
The Texans home opener this season is against the division rival Colts. Both teams enter the game with some similarities. They both start rookie quarterbacks. They both have former players as head coach. Both have general managers that have a coaching background, and have owners who are eccentric in their own ways. The Colts and Texans also have defenses their teams will rely upon until the offenses catch up. Let's take a look at the matchup:
When the Colts have the ball: The Texans defensive line is up and coming. This matchup will largely determine the outcome of this game. While Anthony Richardson was seen as an athletic freak this past draft season, the Texans just sacked Lamar Jackson four times in their first game. We're talking about a former league MVP and one of the fastest players in the league. Richardson was also sacked four times in his debut against the Jags. Richardson didn't have a great day rushing either (10 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown, with his longest run being 12 yards). Their receivers also don't scare me. I can see the Texans dictating things with their stout play along the front. As long as they stop the run, they'll force the Colts into down and distances that favor their pass rush.
When the Texans have the ball: I think C.J. Stroud held the ball way too long against the Ravens. Some of the sacks and hits he took came from him trying to make a play down the field instead of dumping it off or throwing it away. Look for the Colts to apply pressure to attempt to force him into mistakes. I expect the Texans to counter that with more quick throws. More three and five step drops over anything. Also, look for Dameon Pierce to get a ton of carries. Other running backs should get touches as well, but look for Pierce to tote the rock at least 15-20 times. This will take the pressure off Stroud. The Jags ran it 35 times for 105 yards against this Colts defense. They kept pounding the rock and relied on their defense, while using the pass game when necessary. Running 52% of the time despite averaging only 3.0 per carry was a choice that paid off. Quick throws, running the ball relentlessly, and play action passes will lead to success. The Texans offensive line isn't in a state where they can be relied upon fully. However, lineman love to run block. That's their best bet to overtake the Colts' defensive line.
Outcome: I see the Texans pulling off a 20-16 win. It'll be a close game. I can see a turnover for the Texans defense either leading to an easy touchdown, or scoring a defensive touchdown. The game will come down to the Colts kicking a field goal late, then relying on their defense to get the ball back, down 17-16. Texans will drive the field and kick a field goal with about a minute or so left to go up 20-16. The game will end with a Will Anderson Jr sack of Anthony Richardson, or he'll pressure him into a bad throw and incompletion.
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A month into the 2025 season, the Houston Astros have emerged as one of MLB’s most confounding teams. Their offense ranks near the bottom of nearly every key category, yet they remain competitive thanks to a pitching staff that has quietly become one of the most formidable in baseball.
Despite winning back-to-back games just once this season, Houston’s pitching has kept them afloat. The Astros boast a top-10 team ERA, rank seventh in WHIP, and sit top-eight in opponent batting average—a testament to both their rotation depth and bullpen resilience. It’s a group that has consistently given them a chance to win, even when the bats have failed to show up.
Josh Hader has been the bullpen anchor. After a rocky 2024 campaign, the closer has reinvented himself, leaning more heavily on his slider and becoming less predictable. The result has been electric: a veteran who’s adapting and thriving under pressure.
Reinforcements are also on the horizon. Kaleb Ort and Forrest Whitley are expected to bolster a bullpen that’s been great but occasionally spotty—Taylor Scott’s 5.63 ERA stands out as a weak link. Lance McCullers Jr. missed his last rehab outing due to illness but is expected back soon, possibly pairing with Ryan Gusto in a piggyback setup that could stretch games and preserve bullpen arms.
And the timing couldn’t be better, because the Astros' offense remains stuck in neutral. With an offense ranked 26th in OPS, 27th in slugging, dead last in doubles, and just 24th in runs scored, it's clear the Astros have a major issue producing consistent offense. For all their talent, they are a minus-two in run differential and have looked out of sync at the plate.
One bright spot has been rookie Cam Smith. The right fielder has displayed remarkable poise, plate discipline, and a polished approach rarely seen in rookies. It’s fair to ask why Smith, with only five Double-A games under his belt before this season, is showing more patience than veterans like Jose Altuve. Altuve, among others, has been chasing too many pitches outside the zone and hardly walking—a troubling trend across the lineup.
Before the season began, the Astros made it a point to improve their pitch selection and plate discipline. So far, that stated goal hasn’t materialized. Many of the players who are showing solid discipline—like Isaac Paredes or Christian Walker—were already doing that on other teams before joining Houston. It raises the question: are the Astros’ hitting coaches being held accountable?
The offensive woes are hard to ignore. Catcher Yainer Diaz currently owns the second-worst OPS in baseball, while Walker ranks 15th from the bottom. Even a star like Yordan Alvarez has yet to find his groove. The hope is that Diaz and Walker will follow Alvarez's lead and trend upward with time.
With so many offensive questions and few clear answers, a trade for a left-handed bat—whether in the outfield or second base—would be ideal. But with the front office laser-focused on staying below the tax threshold, don’t count on it.
For now, Houston's path forward depends on whether the bats can catch up to the arms. Until they do, the Astros will remain a team that looks good on paper but still can’t string wins together in reality.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
*ChatGPT assisted.
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