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Texans time travel: Here's a sneak peek into the future, one year ahead
Feb 7, 2024, 4:29 pm
Here's a hypothetical Texans' scenario for next season. Composite Getty Image.
The 2023-24 Houston Texans finished the season on a high. They went 10-7, won the AFC South, won a Wildcard playoff game, and generally shocked the world by how well they performed. They were armed with a first time general manager in his third season, a first time rookie head coach, and a rookie quarterback on a team that won seven games in the previous two seasons.
Now that the bar has been established, how will things look moving forward? The roster has some important building blocks, but need more pieces in place. Who, what, when, and how that happens is something we'll have to wait and see. I'm not here to lay out what I think their offseason plans will look like. Not yet. That will come at some point. For now, I'm trying to foreshadow what the Texans will be doing a year from now.
Scene: New Orleans, LA during the pre-Super Bowl festivities in early February 2025
Date: some time before the February 9 game
“The Texans completed another successful season. They finished 12-5 and won the AFC South for the second year in a row. CJ Stroud is set to win his first league MVP award after throwing for over 4200 yards, 30+ touchdowns, less than eight interceptions, along with a surprising 400 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns. They ended with the number two seed and lost the AFC Title game to the Ravens in Baltimore.”
"DeMeco Ryans proved winning coach of the year last season was no fluke. Despite losing 21 different players to various injuries for large stretches of time, he was still able to navigate his second coaching campaign to better results than his first. He was runner-up for coach of the year. No coach has ever won the award one year, then finished that high the following year. Another milestone for the budding star.”
“Will Anderson Jr and Derek Stingley Jr both finished in the top five for Defensive Player of the Year. Anderson had 15+ sacks, 4+ forced fumbles, 3+ fumble recoveries, and two defensive touchdowns. Stingley finished with 6+ interceptions, 10+ pass breakups, and 2+ defensive touchdowns. They both showed up big and bright during the Texans' three national TV prime time games, so that also helped get the word out.”
"The offense took a turn…for the better! (insert running back name here) ran for 1200+ yards and 8+ touchdowns, while (insert running back number two name here) contributed with 500+ yards rushing and 5+ touchdowns. Nico Collins and Tank Dell continued where they left off last season. Both guys were Pro Bowlers, however, Dell made it as a return specialist. He ran back a combo of three plus punt/kick returns. His constant field flipping returns made him more valuable as a returner this season, given the fact that (insert new wide receiver's name here) took some targets away from him. No wonder Frank Ross got a couple token interviews to be a head coach this hiring cycle."
I can totally see me writing something like this next year around this time. While that 28-24 loss to the Ravens in the AFC Title game will hurt, it'll be another speed bump on the road to success. This team is so much fun to watch now that I can't wait to see how they grow and continue to develop!
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After finishing up with the Guardians the Astros have a rather important series for early May with the Seattle Mariners heading to town for the weekend. While it’s still too early to be an absolute must-win series for the Astros, losing the series to drop seven or nine games off the division lead would make successfully defending their American League West title that much more unlikely.
Since their own stumble out of the gate to a 6-10 record the Mariners have been racking up series wins, including one this week over the Atlanta Braves. The M’s offense is largely Mmm Mmm Bad, but their pitching is sensational. In 18 games after a 4-8 start, the Mariners gave up five runs in a game once. In the other 17 games they only gave up four runs once. Over the 18 games their starting pitchers gave up 18 earned runs total with a 1.44 earned run average. That’s absurd. Coming into the season Seattle’s starting rotation was clearly better on paper than those of the Astros and Texas Rangers, and it has crystal clearly played out as such into the second month of the schedule.
While it’s natural to focus on and fret over one’s own team's woes when they are plentiful as they have been for the Astros, a reminder that not all grass is greener elsewhere. Alex Bregman has been awful so far. So has young Mariners’ superstar Julio Rodriguez (though not Breggy Bad). A meager four extra base hits over his first 30 games were all Julio produced down at the ballyard. That the Mariners are well ahead of the Astros with J-Rod significantly underperforming is good news for Seattle.
Caratini comes through!
So it turns out the Astros are allowed to have a Puerto Rican-born catcher who can hit a little bit. Victor Caratini’s pedigree is not that of a quality offensive player, but he has swung the bat well thus far in his limited playing time and provided the most exciting moment of the Astros’ season with his two-out two-run 10th inning game winning home run Tuesday night. I grant that one could certainly say “Hey! Ronel Blanco finishing off his no-hitter has been the most exciting moment.” I opt for the suddenness of Caratini’s blow turning near defeat into instant victory for a team that has been lousy overall to this point. Frittering away a game the Astros had led 8-3 would have been another blow. Instead, to the Victor belong the spoils.
Pudge Rodriguez is the greatest native Puerto Rican catcher, but he was no longer a good hitter when with the Astros for the majority of the 2009 season. Then there’s Martin Maldonado.
Maldonado’s hitting stats with the Astros look Mike Piazza-ian compared to what Jose Abreu was doing this season. Finally, mercifully for all, Abreu is off the roster as he accepts a stint at rookie-level ball in Florida to see if he can perform baseball-CPR on his swing and career. Until or unless he proves otherwise, Abreu is washed up and at some point the Astros will have to accept it and swallow whatever is left on his contract that runs through next season. For now Abreu makes over $120,000 per game to not be on the roster. At his level of performance, that’s a better deal than paying him that money to be on the roster.
Abreu’s seven hits in 71 at bats for an .099 batting average with a .269 OPS is a humiliating stat line. In 2018 George Springer went to sleep the night of June 13 batting .293 after going hitless in his last four at bats in a 13-5 Astros’ win over Oakland. At the time no one could have ever envisioned that Springer had started a deep, deep funk which would have him endure a nightmarish six for 78 stretch at the plate (.077 batting average). Springer then hit .293 the rest of the season.
Abreu’s exile opened the door for Joey Loperfido to begin his Major League career. Very cool for Loperfido to smack a two-run single in his first game. He also struck out twice. Loperfido will amass whiffs by the bushel, he had 37 strikeouts in 101 at bats at AAA Sugar Land. Still, if he can hit .225 with some walks mixed in (he drew 16 with the Space Cowboys) and deliver some of his obvious power (13 homers in 25 games for the ex-Skeeters) that’s an upgrade over Abreu/Jon Singleton, as well as over Jake Meyers and the awful showing Chas McCormick has posted so far. Frankly, it seems unwise that the Astros only had Loperfido play seven games at first base in the minors this year. If McCormick doesn’t pick it up soon and with Meyers displaying limited offensive upside, the next guy worth a call-up is outfielder Pedro Leon. In January 2021 the Astros gave Leon four million dollars to sign out of Cuba and called him a “rapid mover to the Major Leagues.” Well…
Over his first three minor league seasons Leon flashed tools but definitely underwhelmed. He has been substantially better so far this year. He turns 26 May 28. Just maybe the Astros offense could be the cause of fewer Ls with Loperfido at first and Leon in center field.
Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via YouTube: stone cold stros - YouTube with the complete audio available via Apple Podcast, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.