Important Texans keys to grabbing a marquee victory over Packers
TEXANS ON TAP
17 October 2024
TEXANS ON TAP
The Houston Texans head to Green Bay this weekend to play in one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the season.
On offense, the Texans will look to maintain the boost Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce provided to the running game last week against the Patriots.
Despite Houston's success with the ground game against the Pats, there are some concerns. Most of the production came from two explosive runs. They ranked in the Bottom 5 in success rate (26.9%) and Top 10 in stuff rate (23.1%) amongst all teams in Week 6.
Despite the volume against New England, Houston's run game on Sunday:
Ranked Bottom 5 in success rate (26.9%) and Top 10 in stuff rate (23.1%) amongst all teams in Week 6.
Lots of inefficient runs with huge gains sprinkled in-between. Is that sustainable? #HTownMade
— John Crumpler (@JohnHCrumpler) October 15, 2024
Air it out
The passing game once again will go through Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs with Nico Collins sidelined. Dell received a large portion of the downfield work that Collins had been doing.
Tank posted the highest route win rate and average separation score for Houston in Week 6, per Jacob Gibbs, and Fantasy Points Data.
In what should be a high scoring game, expect Dell to be Stroud's main target downfield.
What about the defense?
The Texans defense is 30th in EPA against play action, so don't be surprised if that's how the Packers will try to get some big plays down field.
D'Angelo Ross stepped in at corner with Kamari Lassiter injured last week. He lined up at the left corner spot, where Packers receiver Christian Watson will likely run the majority of his routes this week.
With Derek Stingley lining up outside on the right, he'll be facing Romeo Doubs a majority of the time. We expect Doubs will have a quiet day and the Packers will target Watson against Ross, and Jayden Daniels in the slot versus Jalen Pitre.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans has been dialing up the blitz more and more. And that looks like a good idea once again this week, as Love is 28th in QBR when blitzed this season.
What does Vegas think?
The Packers are favored by 2.5 points, with the total set at 47.5 points.
There are so many more angles to cover in this exciting matchup. Don't miss the video above as we break it all down! And head to the SportsMap Texans YouTube channel right after the game as we react live!
The Astros have officially entered a new era, but it’s hard to spin Alex Bregman’s exit as anything but a gut punch. Bregman, a cornerstone of Houston’s championship core, is gone — and the Astros' strategy (or lack thereof) is front and center. The questions are mounting fast, and the answers don’t inspire confidence.
Let’s be clear: This isn’t about refusing to pay players. It’s about how the Astros are willing to pay them. Jim Crane’s approach has become increasingly rigid — no deals with high annual values and opt-outs, but also no long-term contracts for $160+ million. Essentially, Crane is looking for a Goldilocks zone in modern baseball that no longer exists. Good luck winning another World Series with that strategy and a depleted farm system.
If Crane’s blueprint is to focus on cheap positions (first base, closer) or short-term deals with aging veterans past their prime, this team could be in serious trouble. We’ve seen it before with Correa. He could’ve been retained on a shorter-term contract (3-years, $105 million), but Crane’s pride — and his refusal to engage with Scott Boras on deals that include opt-outs — kept the Astros out of the conversation.
Dana Brown publicly called Bregman a top priority. Clearly, that wasn’t true for Crane. Brown’s reaction to the Bregman news felt more like a man at a funeral than an optimistic GM on the opening day of spring training for pitchers and catchers. He wouldn’t even comment on the deal.
Crane’s strategy already backfiring
The Astros locked up Rafael Montero and José Abreu to questionable contracts that now feel like self-inflicted wounds. Would Crane have let Bregman walk if not for those deals? If that’s the case, Houston just sacrificed its long-term core for short-term bets that didn't pay off.
And get ready — Framber Valdez is probably next. When his contract comes up, don’t expect him to stick around.
Leadership void
Losing Bregman isn’t just about stats. It’s about leadership, swagger, and presence. Players like Jeremy Peña, Chas McCormick, and Isaac Paredes aren’t exactly striking fear into opponents. Correa, Bregman, and Kyle Tucker? Entirely different story.
A missed opportunity
Imagine choosing between Josh Hader’s deal (5-years, $95 million) or what Bregman just signed for (3-years, $120 million). I would take Bregman all day. When Hader signed last season, we were fine with it as long as it didn't preclude the club from trying to extend Bregman and/or Tucker.
But here we are one year later with Tucker, Bregman, and Ryan Pressly playing for new teams. And Pressly was better than Hader in 2024 despite dealing with a role change.
For now, the most exciting things about the 2025 Astros are the short porch in left field — which might make Paredes look good again — and the weak AL West.
So, get your season tickets now!
This is one video you don't want to miss as the crew from Stone Cold 'Stros examines all the ramifications from Alex Bregman's Astros departure, and much more!
Spring training is up and running. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday.
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