Role Reversal
The Houston Texans have become the Indianapolis Colts
Dec 19, 2017, 2:28 pm
I think we have seen enough of the Texans’ 2017 season to make some comparisons. My first thought is the Texans have become the Colts of the last several years. What do they have in common you ask? A superstar injured QB, a leaky (terrible) defense, one of the worst o-lines in the NFL, a coach that's on the hot seat, one elite playmaking wide receiver. I think you get my point. Let's break this premise down position-by-position.
We'll start with the QBs. Both teams have an injury-prone franchise QB that hasn’t been able to stay on the field. Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson have shown the ability to win at a high level throwing from the pocket, and both possess the escape-ability to buy some time to complete passes when the pocket breaks down. I would say both players will be ready for next season most likely, but a new report suggest Luck might have to undergo bicep tendon surgery (more injuries), so we’ll have to see how that plays out over the offseason. Both guys, when available, look like they can elevate a team to greatness with the right pieces around them.
Next, both the Texans and the Colts have two of the worst offensive lines in all of football, and after the injury to Nick Martin on Sunday, the Texans may legitimately need five new starters next season. To be fair, Martin should be a serviceable option if he can overcome the two ankle/leg injuries he’s suffered the last couple years. I sense a theme because Colts' center Ryan Kelly has dealt with ankle and foot problems early in his career as well.
Texans' rookie tackle Julien Davenport will have an opportunity to start next season, but he’s raw and still may not be ready even after another offseason. The Colts have addressed their line in the draft the last two seasons, but they have dealt with a ton of injuries too. The days of the Colts rolling into camp without adding any key pieces to their line are over. They've selected three offensive linemen early in the draft, two in 2016, and one in 2017. This is where the Colts have learned their lesson, but the Texans may just now understand the severity of the problem on their hands. This will be the second year the Texans have truly ignored the o-line and the results have been awful after just one season of neglect. Hopefully, they will try to improve the line through free agency, but quality tackles typically get signed to long-term deals by the teams that drafted them. Maybe they can add some talent at guard to improve the interior of the line.
Both coaches may not be around for much longer. Colts' GM Chris Ballard may be ready to find a new coach to replace Chuck Pagano, and I can’t say I blame him. I’m sure Ballard wants to get his own hire into the organization, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Bill O’Brien isn’t back with the Texans next season. O’Brien sees what a mess Rick Smith has left for him to coach, and it feels like the right time for a change. I don't think Billy O will quit, but I do believe his days are coming to an end in Houston. If I was O'Brien, I would be looking at the Colts as an upgrade over the Texans' front office. I bet it would feel pretty good for O'Brien to stick it to Rick Smith twice a year as the Colts' new head coach. I hope O'Brien stays with the Texans, but I think he'll leave after next year if not sooner.
The Colts and the Texans have one elite wide receiver each, and not a lot else in the passing game. Hopkins and Hilton are dominant number one receivers, especially when they have their QBs available to them. Will Fuller could end up being a nice player, but so far he has been injured multiple times, and the same can be said for Colts WR Donte Moncrief. Finally, I know Hopkins is clearly outplaying T.Y. Hilton this year, but Hilton can be the most dangerous deep threat in the league when he has someone that can get him the ball.
Previous Texans teams could always count on the defense, but that’s definitely not the case anymore. The Texans are dead last in overall team defense according to Profootballreference.com, and the Colts are second to last. If you watch the Texans every week, you can’t be surprised by their rank on defense, but how are you going to rebuild the secondary and the offensive line without any top draft picks? You’re not, and you can only do so much in free agency. The secondary needs a complete overhaul. Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson can’t be your starters at corner anymore, and Kevin Johnson is looking more like a bust after every game. The Colts need an infusion of talent in the secondary just as much as the Texans. They took safety Malik Hooker in the first round, but he tore his ACL and is no lock to be ready when the season starts.
Houston's lack of depth on defense is catching up with them. This is why their special teams are so bad; anybody decent has to play on defense regularly.
We can also point to the Colts' and Texans’ running games being extremely average as well, but the one thing that should concern Texans fans the most is the juggernaut the Jacksonville Jaguars have built. While the roster has been run into the ground in Houston, the Jaguars have become what the Texans used to be every year, a great defense with a strong running game. For years, Texans fans have been waiting to acquire a franchise QB to lead them deep into the playoffs, but it looks like their old formula of defense and a strong running game might be what does the trick. The only problem is, it’s working for the Jaguars, not the Texans. We’ll see how the Jags perform in the playoffs, but a good defense and a strong running game usually does very well in the months of January and February. It took a few years for all of this talent to develop in Jacksonville, but the Jags went from worst to first which should give Texans fans some hope. But a few more terrible drafts and that won't be the case. This should be a wake-up call for Rick Smith. The team and the roster are both clearly backsliding.
As the Houston Astros finalize their Opening Day roster, some notable names have been left off the team. Outfielder Ben Gamel and first baseman Jon Singleton were among the cuts, with both players struggling at the plate this spring. Singleton, despite coming into camp in excellent shape, hit just .171 with one extra-base hit in 41 at-bats. Gamel fared no better, batting .167 in 24 at-bats while dealing with injuries. Many expected the Astros to keep at least one of them for their left-handed bat, but the team opted for other options. Notably, Victor Caratini, a switch-hitter, provides valuable depth behind Christian Walker at first base and offers manager Joe Espada a quality pinch-hit option late in games.
1. Jose Altuve’s transition to left field
One of the biggest storylines heading into the season is how long the Astros will stick with Jose Altuve in left field if he struggles defensively. The longtime second baseman is making the switch, but if he fails to adjust, Houston may have to explore alternative solutions.
2. Jeremy Peña’s next step
After a stellar spring, will this be the year Jeremy Peña takes his game to another level? While he's unlikely to develop into a high-walk hitter, a return to his rookie-year power numbers could be a major boost for the Astros. In 2023, he hit 22 homers and slugged .426, and Houston will need that production again.
3. Yordan Alvarez’s Health and MVP Potential
Alvarez remains the key piece of the Astros’ lineup, and if he can stay healthy, his 40-plus home run potential makes him a serious AL MVP candidate. He currently has the fourth-best MVP odds in the league.
4. Will Cam Smith and/or Zach Dezenzo make the final cut?
If manager Joe Esapa keeps his word, both Smith and Dezenzo are unlikely to make the team. Espada has been adamant that both players require every day at-bats. Which Houston can't accommodate with the current roster construction.
Houston’s bullpen will be anchored by star closer Josh Hader and setup man Bryan Abreu. Other key arms include Tayler Scott, Bryan King, Rafael Montero, Luis Contreras, and Steven Okert.
Ryan Gusto (1.17 spring ERA) is a candidate to make the squad but could be a roster casualty when Forrest Whitley or Caleb Ort return from injury.
Whitley’s string of bad luck continues, as he’ll begin the season on the injured list despite an impressive spring. Montero, meanwhile, was a surprise roster inclusion given his struggles, especially since Logan VanWey outperformed him this spring. The Astros appear to be hoping for a bounce-back year from Montero, though he should be limited to mop-up duties early on.
As the season begins, Houston has a strong roster with playoff aspirations, but key questions remain. Can Altuve adjust to left field? Will Peña and Alvarez step up? And can the bullpen hold firm? The answers will shape the Astros' 2025 campaign.
We have so much more to cover. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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