Texans-Jags grudge match countdown: implications, standings, and statement performances
DIVISION ON THE LINE
21 November 2023
DIVISION ON THE LINE
After weeks of looking ahead to the Texans' second matchup with the Jaguars, the exact scenario Houston fans were hoping for has come to fruition.
If the Texans can beat the Jags at NRG this Sunday, they will vault to the top of the division, and be in control of their own destiny as they head toward the playoffs.
What a wild season it has been. So who has the advantage in this game? Vegas has the Jaguars as 1.5 point favorites, even though the game is in Houston.
The Jags are coming off a convincing victory over the Titans, but were hammered the previous week by the 49ers. When we look at the matchups the Texans can exploit, attacking Jacksonville through the air looks like the way to go.
They are 4th overall in rushing yards against this season, so don't expect Devin Singletary to have his third straight game with over 100 rushing yards. The Jaguars defense only allows 87 yards per game on average.
They're 26th in the league when it comes to sacks, so CJ Stroud should have some time to operate in the passing game. And while yards should be fairly easy to come by in the air, Stroud will have to be careful when it comes to interceptions. Not only because he threw 3 of them against Arizona, but also because the Jags have the 4th-most interceptions in the league.
The other big factor to watch for in this game involves reputation. Stroud and the Texans have already beaten Jacksonville handily this year, winning by 20 points. If the Texans can beat them again and be in position to go from worst to first in the division, it will be clear that the Texans have the best QB in the AFC South.
And the MVP talk about CJ Stroud will gain even more momentum.
Don't miss the video above as we discuss all the angles in this division-deciding matchup between Houston and Jacksonville.
If you enjoy the videos, subscribe to SportsMapTexans on YouTube for our latest content.
C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson found themselves in the same spot when they met in Week 2 last season.
Both quarterbacks were top-five draft picks, lost their season openers and seemed to be facing a steep learning curve.
Richardson won Round 1 in Houston, although he didn't finish the game.
Stroud took Round 2 in Indianapolis with the injured Richardson watching from the sideline as Texans clinched the AFC South title and Stroud locked up his runaway selection as NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
On Sunday, each QB begins his second pro season — with a lot still to prove.
“I’m excited. First official game back with my guys and my teammates,” said Richardson, who had season-ending shoulder surgery last October. "I want to win. So, whatever I’ve got to do to do that, I’m going to do it.”
Winning a season opener certainly would be a welcome change for a franchise that last started 1-0 in 2013. The 10-game winless streak is easily the NFL's longest active streak.
But that's just a start for Richardson.
He needs to improve his accuracy after completing a pedestrian 59.5% of his throws in 2023 and must demonstrate he can finish games. He missed 13 last season and only finished one of his four starts because of an assortment of injuries, including the concussion that knocked him out of that Week 2 matchup at Houston after he ran for two scores.
Stroud, meanwhile, is coming off one of the most successful rookie seasons in NFL history.
He became just the third player in a half-century to lead the league in yards passing per game (273.9) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.6 to 1), won a playoff game and made hist first Pro Bowl appearance.
How can he improve on a season like that? By showing last season was a building block — not a fluke. He has a stronger supporting cast, too, with Joe Mixon, a four-time 1,000-yard rusher, and Stefon Diggs, who has four straight 100-catch seasons, now in the mix.
The long journey begins Sunday in Indianapolis.
“I want to just start fast,” Stroud said. “It doesn't have to do with a certain game, just in general this season. Last year, we started off really slow and just kind of had to build our way back. It's not an easy thing to do, so I would say this year we want to start fast.”
Houston receiver Nico Collins had two of his biggest games last season against Indy — catching seven passes for 146 yards and one TD in the Week 2 matchup only to outperform those numbers with a 195-yard day that included a 75-yard TD catch in Week 18.
He could play an even bigger role this time with Indy's young secondary trying to match up not only with Collins but also Diggs, Mixon and tight end Dalton Schultz.
“Nico is a playmaker,” Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said. “Every time I see him, he’s a true playmaker. So, you just have to get Nico the ball in any way, shape or fashion. Just find a way to get him the ball just to see how explosive and how dynamic he is.”
Injuries and a contract dispute prevented Jonathan Taylor from replicating the form he used to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Starting against the Texans could be just what he needs.
In six games against Houston, Taylor has rushed for seven TDs and 135.2 yards per game — his highest average against any team he's faced multiple times. And in that rematch with Houston in Week 18, he finished with 30 carries for 188 yards, the NFL's highest single-game total all season.
Houston defensive end Will Anderson, last season’s AP Defensive Rookie of the Year, will play Sunday after recovering from an ankle injury that limited his training camp snaps.
The No. 3 overall pick in 2023 had 45 tackles, 10 for loss, and 7 1/2 sacks as a rookie. He expects to be even better this season.
“I’m way more comfortable,” he said. “Just going into Year 2 knowing the scheme better, knowing what to expect a little bit more and knowing what’s going to happen gives you more confidence.”
The Colts lost their 2023 sacks leader, Samson Ebukam, with a torn Achilles tendon during training. But they may have the perfect replacement.
Laiatu Latu was the first defensive player taken in April's draft, at No. 15 overall, and he's shown coaches that the moves he used to record 23 1/2 sacks over his last two college seasons can work in the NFL.
“We know that there’s going to be a learning curve there," defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. "We know there are going to be plays that we’re going to come in and say there were some good plays, and there were plays he wishes he had back — we understand that. But just his overall mentality and skill set, we’re very excited to see.”