THE PALLILOG
How Texans' halfway mark brings strengths to light, exposes these pressing areas for improvement
Nov 1, 2024, 1:34 pm
The Texans' pass protection is not sustainable. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images.
Nine down eight to go. Meaning nine games played with eight remaining in the Texans’ regular season after their Halloween night second half collapse at the Jets. Most will clobber the Texans’ offense for mustering only 13 points, just two field goals after halftime. Most will be right. Eight sacks of C.J. Stroud merits credit for the Jets, and embarrassment for the Texans’ offensive line. Ka’imi Fairbairn botching a 27 yard field goal attempt that would have cut the Jets’ lead to 14-13 with 6:54 to play was a crusher as well. However, in the second half the Texans’ efense (no typo, there was no d to be found) also went down in flames. Excluding one game-ending kneel down, the Jets had three second half possessions. They resulted in touchdown drives of 70, 70, and 80 yards. The Texans should have called their uniform choice for the night “surrender white.” That after in the first half Aaron Rodgers played as if he was 70 years old rather than his actual 40. It was an inept showing dropping the Texans to 6-3. With the 17-game schedule there is no exact halfway point, so let’s take stock at the 52.9% completed point of the Texans’ schedule.
At 6-3 the AFC South remains clearly under the Texans’ control unless they fall apart. The Colts benching quarterback Anthony Richardson for 73-year-old Joe Flacco shouldn't change that. The carrot still dangling in front of the Texans for the balance of the regular season is securing the second seed for the AFC playoffs. Falling on their faces in New Jersey doesn’t preclude that possibility. The two seed would mean a Wild Card round home game against the last team in the conference to get into the postseason, with a win in it making a second home game all that stands between the Texans and a first ever AFC Championship game appearance. Of course they could lose to the seven seed, the point is who would turn down the two seed right now? There is virtually no chance that the Texans overtake the Kansas City Chiefs for the top seed and bye into the second round.
That two of the Texan’ three losses have come outside the AFC could be a difference maker come playoff seeding time. Intra-conference record follows head-to-head on the tiebreakers list. Heading into this week the two other AFC teams at 6-2 like the Texans were/are Buffalo and Pittsburgh. The Texans have banked a win over the Bills. The Steelers have an AFC loss to the Colts. The Texans and Steelers do not meet. The 5-3 Ravens clearly could overtake the Steelers and win the North. If so, the Christmas Day Texans-Ravens tilt at NRG Stadium could have massive ramifications.
Let's make a deal!
The NFL trade deadline arrives at 3PM Houston time Tuesday. General Manager Nick Caserio should be working the phones hard. With Stefon Diggs’s season finished courtesy of a torn anterior cruciate ligament, adding a wide receiver is the higher profile area that could use fortification. But the most glaring weakness on offense has been left guard Kenyon Green. He’s in way over his head. No one should have been happy that he left Thursday night’s game because of injury, but playing anyone else in his spot is an upgrade. Between injuries and poor performance, the third-year turnstile out of Texas A&M has done so little good it’s indisputable at this point to say Caserio busted with the first first round pick he made for the Texans. Fortunately his overall body of work is vastly better. While by no means should he be considered a bust, it is disappointing that rookie second round pick Blake Fisher has done nothing to suggest that moving him inside to guard might help. It’s not as if the bar is high.
Looking ahead
After enjoying (?) a long weekend off the Texans next start preparing for a Sunday night matchup with the Detroit Lions. Only four of the 32 existing NFL franchises have never reached a Super Bowl: the Texans, Lions, Cleveland Browns, and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Texans are zero for their 22 seasons, but have being the newest franchise as a partial alibi. The Lions have no such defense. 58 Super Bowls have been played with the Lions in none. After blowing a 17 point lead in last season’s NFC Championship game in Santa Clara against the 49ers, this might be the Lions’ season. They absorbed a huge blow with pass rushing beast Aidan Hutchinson suffering a season-ending fracture of both the tibia and fibula in his left leg. Hutchinson was hurt two Sundays ago while the Lions were stomping the Cowboys 34-6. It was early in the third quarter, and with just 53 men active on gameday rosters teams can only sit so many guys. Whether the Lions fortify their d-line by the trade deadline is a big question, the answer to which could play a role in Texans-Lions next week.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
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In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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