STOOTS ON TEXANS
11 observations from the Houston Texans' 16-9 loss to the Broncos
Sep 19, 2022, 8:53 am
Texans QB Davis Mills struggled in Denver. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
The Houston Texans remain winless as they lose to the Broncos 16-9. Here are 11 observations from the game.
1. The Texans seemingly let another game get away from them. If the team had executed better and had a few fewer penalties, there is no doubt they would have had their first win of the season. For a team that lives in the margins, there were too many mistakes. Denver kept the Texans in the game, and the Texans kept taking themselves out of it.
2. Davis Mills played another poor game. The second-year quarterback made some bad decisions late with the football and missed too many plays he should make. Mills throws far too many uncompetitive balls. He needs to get better in tune with the pass catchers.
3. The Texans would be 2-0 with average quarterback play. The team has not gotten average quarterback play. Davis Mills must display the ability to fix mistakes on a week-to-week basis. He didn’t showcase that this week.
4. The success of Dameon Pierce makes last week tougher to stomach. It was impossible watching the rookie succeed and not think the team would have won against the Colts if he had played more.
5. Pep Hamilton makes some curious decisions when it comes to play calling. It isn’t out-and-out bad, but it isn’t good. There is a solid argument to be made he can only do so much with Davis Mills at quarterback.
6. Brandin Cooks can’t drop touchdown passes. The Texans will never be able to regularly overcome settling for kicks when they can score. The play after was not a great one as Davis Mills didn’t throw the ball quickly enough and Cooks couldn’t come down with the ball in the end zone.
7. Derek Stingley had a “welcome to the NFL” day working against Cortland Sutton and Russell Wilson. There were penalties and bad coverages and blown coverages. That’s ok. That’s cornerbacks. Stingley did have a nice pass defense on Sutton in the endzone. Not worried about the third overall pick.
8. The third down and 16 play will haunt the Texans' defense. It was a late-game moment the team can’t get wrong. It might be as simple as Derek Stingley was incorrect in assuming he had help but regardless that’s a play the team can’t give up and win.
9. The Texans got worn down by a ground attack again. The Broncos were having a ton of success and Houston is lucky there wasn’t more focus on running the ball by Denver. It looks a lot better early, but by late in the game, the Texans don’t have an answer. Several factors add up to that, including the offense not doing its job.
10. There is very little pass rush consistency. The Jerry Hughes performance last week appears to be an anomaly. The team needs to have some people win individually or generate some pressure.
11. Ultimately the Texans have not lost two times in two games like many expected the team to lose. The tough part is there seems to be a much lower level of ability than the optimistic supporters, like me, believed was present. It will be an uphill climb but getting back to Houston with a win and being 1-1-1 is an absolute necessity.
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The woeful state of the Astros' farm system has made it very expensive to continue maintaining a good team, prohibitively so (in part self-imposed) from having a great team. Even if they re-sign Alex Bregman, trading Framber Valdez and/or Kyle Tucker for prospects could snap the Astros' run of eight straight postseason appearances. But if they KNOW that no way do they intend to offer Framber five years 130 million dollars, Tucker 7/225 or whatever their free agent markets might be after next season, keeping them for 2025 but getting nothing but 2026 compensatory draft picks for them could do multi-year damage to the franchise.
Preliminary Kyle Tucker trade talks between the Astros and Cubs involve both Seiya Suzuki and Isaac Paredes, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me - https://t.co/kIRATDQpEn
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 11, 2024
The time is here for the Astros to be aggressively shopping both. It doesn't make trading them obligatory, but even though many purported top prospects amount to little or nothing (look up what the Astros traded to Detroit for Justin Verlander, to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole, to Arizona for Zack Greinke) if strong packages are offered the Astros need to act if unwilling (reasonably or not) to pay Valdez/Tucker.
Last offseason the Milwaukee Brewers traded pitching ace Corbin Burnes one season ahead of his free agency and then again won the National League Central, the San Diego Padres dealt Juan Soto and wound up much improved and a playoff team after missing the 2023 postseason. But nailing the trades is critical. The Brewers got their everyday rookie third baseman Joey Ortiz and two other prospects. The Padres got quality starter Michael King, catcher Kyle Hagashioka, and three prospects.
Back to Bregman
Meanwhile, decision time approaches for Alex Bregman. He, via agent Scott Boras, wants 200-plus million dollars. Don't we all. If he can land that from somebody, congratulations. The Astros' six-year 156 million dollar contract offer is more than fair. That's 26 million dollars per season and would take Bregman within a few months of his 37th birthday. If rounding up to 160 mil gets it done, ok I guess. Going to 200 would be silly.
While Bregman hasn't been a superstar (or even an All-Star) since 2019, he's still a very good player. That includes his 2024 season which showed decline offensively. Not falling off a cliff decline other than his walk rate plunging about 45 percent, but decline. If Bregman remains the exact player he was this season, six-156 is pricey but not crazy in the current marketplace. But how likely is Bregman to not drop off further in his mid-30s? As noted before, the storyline is bogus that Bregman has been a postseason monster. Over seven League Championship Series and four World Series Bregman has a .196 batting average.
The Astros already should be sweating some over Jose Altuve having shown marked decline this season, before his five year 125 million dollar extension covering 2025-2029 even starts. Altuve was still very good offensively though well down from 2022 and 2023 (defensively his data are now awful), but as he approaches turning 35 years old in May some concern is warranted when locked into paying a guy until he's nearly 39 1/2.
Jim Crane is right in noting that long contracts paying guys huge money in their later years generally go poorly for the clubs.
Bang for your buck
Cleveland third baseman Jose Ramirez is heading into the second year of a five-year, $124 million extension. That's 24.8 million dollars per season. Jose Ramirez is a clearly better player than Alex Bregman. Ramirez has been the better player for five consecutive seasons, and only in 2023 was it even close. It should be noted that Ramirez signed his extension in April of 2022. He is about a year and a half older than Bregman so the Guardians are paying their superstar through his age 36 season.
Bregman benefits from playing his home games at soon-to be named Daikin Park. Bregman hit 26 home runs this year. Using ball-tracking data, if he had played all his games in Houston, Bregman would have hit 31 homers. Had all his swings been taken at Yankee Stadium, the "Breggy Bomb" count would have been 25. In Cleveland, just 18. Ramirez hit 41 dingers. If all his games were home games 40 would have cleared the fences, if all had been at Minute Maid Park 47 would have been gone.
Matt Chapman recently signed a six-year 151 million dollar deal to stay with the San Francisco Giants. That's 25.166 million per season. Chapman was clearly a better player than Bregman this year. But it's the only season of Chapman's career that is the case. Chapman is 11 months older than Bregman, so his lush deal with the Giants carries through his age 37 season.
The Giants having overpaid Chapman doesn't obligate the Astros to do the same with Bregman. So, if you're the Astros do you accept overpaying Bregman? They would almost certainly be worse without him in 2025, but what about beyond? Again, having not one elite prospect in their minor league system boxes them in. Still, until/unless the Seattle Mariners upgrade their offense, the Astros cling to American League West favorites status. On the other hand, WITH Bregman, Tucker, and Valdez the Astros are no postseason lock.
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!