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Texans mock draft season is in full swing, and no one is happy

Saying people get carried away is an understatement. Composite image by Jack Brame.


It's early April. Spring has sprung. Birds are chirping. We're experiencing the last few days of temps in the 60s. Allergies are running rampant and causing havoc. It's also in the prime of the NFL offseason. The new league year has started. Free agency has been in full effect for about a month or so. All the top guys have been signed. Vets have been cut for cap casualty purposes, or to make room for newer/cheaper talent. It's also draft season, and you know what that means!

ESPN 97.5's own Lance Zierlein put out his mock draft 3.0 for the 2023 NFL Draft. Per the usual, fans of just about all 32 teams were ready to do awful things to LZ. The things they said were even worse! Two of his 27 kids joined in on the beatdown! Our crack staff at Gow Media captured the segment from The Bench with John and Lance where the guys played audio of an AI voice reading the mean tweets:

There's something about a mock draft that sets people off. I'm not sure why. If you look at the adjective definition of mock, it states: not authentic or real, but without the intention to deceive. People tend to forget that part of the term “mock draft” and take it way too serious. They act as if this mock draft is a prediction, or a spoiler. As if these draft analysts are somehow inside the war rooms and meetings; taking the info they absorb from talking to coaches, scouts, and GMs; then formulating their mock drafts. I can assure you this is FAR from the truth.

Do some of these draft analysts pass on their mocks as gospel? Of course they do! They have egos just like any other paid professional. Do they take their jobs too seriously? Absolutely. If you don't believe in you, why would you expect anyone else to believe in you? Do they get sensitive when called out? Yes. I would too if some of you responded the way you do. Threatening people, making personal attacks, and cyber-bullying are very real. Some take it way too far.

One thing I want to emphasize is this: the people who do this for a living will get it wrong more than they get it right. LZ and I have had these discussions on and off since like 2009/2010. He once told me if you can predict the pick, player, and team eight to ten times out of the 32 picks in the first round, you're doing great. I got about six or seven right one year and acted like my bleep didn't stink! Others hated and only wanted to talk about how many I missed. They, too, missed the whole point.

I often wonder why people dislike draft analysts and mock drafts. My old co-host/mentor/great friend Craig Shelton (RIP) and I would regularly get into heated debates over draft analysts and stuff. We'd agree to disagree, then get into it again! His stance was that they don't know what they're talking about, since they can't accurately predict how it'll go. He also felt many would blame teams for doing something different and make it seem as if the analyst was smarter than the actual teams making the picks. While there are draft analysts out there like that, many are here to provide insight into what teams could possibly do.

One thing I know about LZ is he prides himself more on his player evaluations than his mocks. He's responsible for writing the evaluations you see on NFL.com and on NFL Network. That's what he thinks of all the players that are draft eligible. He has to study their game film and make the best assessment possible on their projected potential at the next level. Imagine doing this for well over 300 players over the course of about a year, sometimes more, only for some schlub on Twitter to tell you they think you should be fired for having the Raiders not draft a quarterback in the first round?

Weather forecasters get the weather wrong every day! Yet, we still go back to them every day to see what the weather will be like. Computers often fail us. Yet we use them every day. Our smartphones frequently do dumb things. Yet we won't give up on them either. People will often disappoint us. Yet we will give them chance after chance. My question is: why do we give draft analysts so much grief? Especially over something we're supposed to enjoy? I think it's time we start looking in the mirror and realizing we allow ourselves to get too worked up over something that's meant to entertain and help inform. Weed out the fakes, phonies, and pay attention to the ones who actually give a damn about their work.

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The Astros are utilizing a 6-man rotation. Composite Getty Image.

The Astros should schedule an Old-Timers Game, if not annually maybe every other year. Only the Yankees have regularly played Old Timers Games and it’s a highlight in the Bronx every season. The Astros have plenty enough history to welcome back an ample number of guys to make for a fabulous event. Maybe they could tie it into their now annual Hall of Fame Weekend. Anyway, don’t you feel that if Jose Altuve took part in an Old Timers Game in 2050 he’d bang out a couple of hits, and then if the Astros played him in the regular game he’d line one more hit somehow, at age 60?

After missing the first 43 games of the season while recovering from his broken thumb, Altuve went 0 for four in his first game back, but has since been generally fantastic with his OPS through nine games played at 1.013. It won’t stay that high, but Altuve is a direly needed upgrade to the Astros’ offense which has been utterly mediocre. Offense is the reason the Astros continue to look up at the Texas Rangers in the American League West. The Rangers’ offense has been fantastic, outscoring the Astros by a whopping 100 runs through the first third of the season.

As the regular season entered its middle third this week, the Astros are in the middle of playing a game in 17 consecutive days. It’s their longest stretch of the season without an off day. They are inserting Ronel Blanco as a sixth starting pitcher in the rotation for a couple of turns. The point of mixing in a sixth starter isn’t that the Astros are teeming with guys who belong in a big league rotation. The 29-year-old Blanco is not a notable prospect. This is about lightening the load a little on two guys: Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown.

In becoming a rotation mainstay last season, Javier blew past his previous biggest season workload by nearly 50 innings. He’s on pace to go another 25 innings beyond that this year without even accounting for the playoffs. Hunter Brown last year set his professional high with 130 innings pitched encompassing work with the Space Cowboys and Astros. Brown is on pace for about 170 innings this regular season. That’s a significant jump, and of course the Astros are hoping for another postseason of multiple rounds. Javier, Brown, and Framber Valdez are the three most critical pitchers on the staff, and the Astros hope they remain healthily so for several more years.

Lance McCullers’s latest recovery setback makes his plight increasingly sad. Well, except for him on payday. The odds now lopsidedly favor McCullers never again pitching a near fully healthy and effective season. His only one to date was 2021 (until he broke down in the playoffs), the year before his five year 85 million dollar contract kicked in. McCullers pulls down 17 mil this year (And again next year. And in 2025. And 2026), exactly two and a half times what Framber Valdez makes. I reckon Framber’s representation is aware of this, as it is of the five year 63 million dollar deal the Astros struck with Cristian Javier. Framber is more than three years older than Javier, but has been better, and can hit free agency after the 2025 season, the same time Javier could have gone to market.

Timing isn’t everything but it darn sure can matter. The Astros’ two best relief pitchers through May were Hector Neris and Phil Maton. Neris enters June with a 1.19 earned run average, Maton even better with a teeny-weeny 0.68 ERA. Maton has been especially amazing, given that last year while not pitching very well he posted his career best ERA at 3.84. His 2022 ended ignominiously when after giving up a hit to his brother Nick in the regular season finale, Phil took the ding-a-ling of the week award by breaking his pitching hand punching his locker, sidelining him for the postseason. The Hurt Locker won the Academy Award for Best Picture in 2010. Now Maton is up for Best Pitcher (per inning worked). Both Neris and Maton were James Click acquisitions. Both become free agents after this season.

Up next

Four games with the Angels at Minute Maid Park through the weekend mean the amazing Shohei Ohtani is in town. It’s “Sho-time” on the mound Friday night in a doozy of a pitching matchup with Framber, with Ohtani batting in at least three of the four games. In one player the Angels have a pitcher as good as Cristian Javier and a hitter better than Kyle Tucker. And the Angels will probably miss the playoffs again anyway. And then lose Ohtani in free agency. After the Angels series the Astros are on the road next week. They start with four games at Toronto against the Blue Jays’ very potent lineup, then it’s three at Cleveland vs. the Guardians whose offense has been pathetic so far this season.

Walk this way

Geek Astro factoid of the week: Jeremy Pena drew two walks in Tuesday’s win over the Twins. In his rookie season, Pena had only one two walk game, also in May, also against the Twins. Tuesday’s bases on balls finally got Pena into double digits for the season. He has just 11 walks drawn (largely explaining his weak .307 on-base percentage) vs. 50 strikeouts.

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Stone Cold ‘Stros is the weekly Astro-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule it goes up at 3PM Monday on the SportsMapHouston YouTube channel, is available there for playback at any point, and also becomes available in podcast form at outlets galore. Such as:

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