Houston Texans GM seemed to tip his hand on Super Bowl blueprint, HOF coach co-signs
YOU GOT MOSSED!
03 June
How do the Texans compare to one of the best offenses in NFL history? Composite Getty Image.
The Houston Texans caught a lot of people off guard last week by rewarding receiver Nico Collins with a three-year contract extension worth up to $75 million.
Collins was terrific in 2023, but there are some concerns about his ability to stay healthy, as he has never played a full season in his three-year career.
Texans GM Nick Caserio joined Kay Adams last week on her show Up & Adams to discuss the deal. During the interview, Adams asked Caserio about the 2007 Patriots, as Nick was the wide receivers coach for New England that year.
That was the season the Pats went 16-0, and lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl. One could argue they had one of the best offenses in NFL history. Tom Brady threw for 50 touchdowns, and Randy Moss caught an NFL record 23 of them. Caserio said in the interview that the team was looking to upgrade their roster after the Colts eliminated them from the postseason in 2006.
That offseason, the Patriots traded for both Moss and Wes Welker. This conversation got us thinking about some similarities between the Texans and the 2007 Patriots wide receivers. Modeling this Texans receiving group after one of the best in NFL history sounds like a pretty smart move. And who would know more about it than the guy who coached those receivers?
At the time, many believed Moss was no longer the explosive player he was earlier in his career. It turns out Moss (age 30) still had plenty left in the tank once he was traded from Oakland to New England.
There have been similar questions about Stefon Diggs (age 30), who saw a dropoff in his production over the second half of the 2023 season.
But when it comes to body type, the easiest comparison to Randy Moss on the Texans' roster would be Nico Collins. Both Collins and Moss are 6' 4, weigh around 210-215 pounds, and can beat defenses on deep routes.
If we were to compare a player on the 2007 Patriots to Diggs, Donte Stallworth makes the most sense. Both players are 6 feet tall and weigh just under 200 pounds.
What about Tank Dell? Dell's body type is very similar to Wes Welker's. The Texans list Dell at 5'10, 165 pounds, and Welker was listed at 5'9, 185.
Caserio talked about how the receivers on the 2007 team really complemented each other in size and skill set. So by looking at how Bill Belichick and Caserio put together and implemented that historic receiving corps, maybe we can learn some things about the 2024 Texans receivers.
These players have more in common than just size, let's look at their receiving yards per reception. Collins posted 16.2 Y/R in 2023. Moss came in at 15.2 in 2007.
Welker playing mostly out of the slot averaged 10.5 yards per catch. Diggs had 11.1 Y/R last season.
And Tank Dell's numbers looked pretty similar to Donte Stallworth's. Dell recorded 15.1 yards per catch last year, compared to 15.2 for Stallworth in 2007.
One thing that could really work in the Texans favor is Tank Dell's ability to win on short routes in the slot, and take the top off a defense down the field. In fact, Diggs and Dell both have that ability, so the Texans can mix and match with those guys, putting defenses in a bind. Teams didn't fear Welker getting behind them on deep routes, but that's a different story for Diggs and Dell.
Finally, the comparisons to the 2007 Patriots don't stop at the wide receivers. Brady and Stroud have some interesting comps as well!
Don't miss the video above as we dive deep into the numbers to see how the 2007 Patriots compare to the 2024 Texans, and what that reveals about Houston's offensive blueprint moving forward.
Plus, Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy weighs in on the Texans, and if they have what it takes to win the Super Bowl this season.
C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson found themselves in the same spot when they met in Week 2 last season.
Both quarterbacks were top-five draft picks, lost their season openers and seemed to be facing a steep learning curve.
Richardson won Round 1 in Houston, although he didn't finish the game.
Stroud took Round 2 in Indianapolis with the injured Richardson watching from the sideline as Texans clinched the AFC South title and Stroud locked up his runaway selection as NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year.
On Sunday, each QB begins his second pro season — with a lot still to prove.
“I’m excited. First official game back with my guys and my teammates,” said Richardson, who had season-ending shoulder surgery last October. "I want to win. So, whatever I’ve got to do to do that, I’m going to do it.”
Winning a season opener certainly would be a welcome change for a franchise that last started 1-0 in 2013. The 10-game winless streak is easily the NFL's longest active streak.
But that's just a start for Richardson.
He needs to improve his accuracy after completing a pedestrian 59.5% of his throws in 2023 and must demonstrate he can finish games. He missed 13 last season and only finished one of his four starts because of an assortment of injuries, including the concussion that knocked him out of that Week 2 matchup at Houston after he ran for two scores.
Stroud, meanwhile, is coming off one of the most successful rookie seasons in NFL history.
He became just the third player in a half-century to lead the league in yards passing per game (273.9) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (4.6 to 1), won a playoff game and made hist first Pro Bowl appearance.
How can he improve on a season like that? By showing last season was a building block — not a fluke. He has a stronger supporting cast, too, with Joe Mixon, a four-time 1,000-yard rusher, and Stefon Diggs, who has four straight 100-catch seasons, now in the mix.
The long journey begins Sunday in Indianapolis.
“I want to just start fast,” Stroud said. “It doesn't have to do with a certain game, just in general this season. Last year, we started off really slow and just kind of had to build our way back. It's not an easy thing to do, so I would say this year we want to start fast.”
Nico vs. Colts
Houston receiver Nico Collins had two of his biggest games last season against Indy — catching seven passes for 146 yards and one TD in the Week 2 matchup only to outperform those numbers with a 195-yard day that included a 75-yard TD catch in Week 18.
He could play an even bigger role this time with Indy's young secondary trying to match up not only with Collins but also Diggs, Mixon and tight end Dalton Schultz.
“Nico is a playmaker,” Texans coach DeMeco Ryans said. “Every time I see him, he’s a true playmaker. So, you just have to get Nico the ball in any way, shape or fashion. Just find a way to get him the ball just to see how explosive and how dynamic he is.”
Taylor made
Injuries and a contract dispute prevented Jonathan Taylor from replicating the form he used to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Starting against the Texans could be just what he needs.
In six games against Houston, Taylor has rushed for seven TDs and 135.2 yards per game — his highest average against any team he's faced multiple times. And in that rematch with Houston in Week 18, he finished with 30 carries for 188 yards, the NFL's highest single-game total all season.
Confident Anderson
Houston defensive end Will Anderson, last season’s AP Defensive Rookie of the Year, will play Sunday after recovering from an ankle injury that limited his training camp snaps.
The No. 3 overall pick in 2023 had 45 tackles, 10 for loss, and 7 1/2 sacks as a rookie. He expects to be even better this season.
“I’m way more comfortable,” he said. “Just going into Year 2 knowing the scheme better, knowing what to expect a little bit more and knowing what’s going to happen gives you more confidence.”
Pass rush
The Colts lost their 2023 sacks leader, Samson Ebukam, with a torn Achilles tendon during training. But they may have the perfect replacement.
Laiatu Latu was the first defensive player taken in April's draft, at No. 15 overall, and he's shown coaches that the moves he used to record 23 1/2 sacks over his last two college seasons can work in the NFL.
“We know that there’s going to be a learning curve there," defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said. "We know there are going to be plays that we’re going to come in and say there were some good plays, and there were plays he wishes he had back — we understand that. But just his overall mentality and skill set, we’re very excited to see.”
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