THE PALLILOG

How mounting challenges will put Houston Texans’ resilience to ultimate test

Texans CJ Stroud
The Patriots host CJ Stroud and the Texans this Sunday. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

It’s been years since the Texans commanded the vast majority of sports interest in Houston this early in October. While the Astros’ early exit from the baseball playoffs was a downer, the good news is the Texans are mostly worthy of the increased focus (aside: the Rockets aren’t NBA title contenders, but that is an interesting squad starting its season next week). The Texans are no juggernaut, but a 4-1 record is never to be scoffed at in the National Football League.

The offense has thus far been more hype than performance. Only in the opening win at Indianapolis have the Texans put up more than 24 points. Last season they scored more than 24 only once in the last eight regular season games. The 45 points posted in the playoff victory over Cleveland (granted, 14 of them the result of interception returns for touchdowns) was no more impressive than the 10 mustered in the following week’s loss at Baltimore was pitiful.

C.J. Stroud has been largely excellent, but a mediocre offensive line and lackluster running game keep the attack from elite status. Joe Mixon being out since getting an ankle messed up in week two against the Bears obviously hurts, but missing Mixon isn’t like if the 1978 Oilers had to play without Earl Campbell. The Texans still don’t have a run longer than 18 yards this season, which is absurd five games in. I don’t think anyone believes the offensive line has been good so far. Anyone thinking the o-line hasn’t been a disappointment is just wrong. It doesn’t take particular expertise to know the o-line infrequently controls the line of scrimmage. Left guard Kenyon Green has been healthy in his third season, but his play is that of a first round bust. Veteran right guard Shaq Mason seems to be in decline. Rookie second round pick Blake Fisher isn’t halfway through his freshman year, but has not been good when filling in for either Laremy Tunsil at left tackle or Tytus Howard at right tackle. On the plus side, Tunsil did manage a penalty-free game against the Bills! To what extent coaching is a factor I don’t know, but the coaching is not getting more out of less from the offensive line to this point.

Now the Texans face playing at least four games without wide receiver Nico Collins, who was playing at first team All-Pro level as a follow-up to his huge breakout 2023 season. Over the last three seasons there was a clear first tier of wideouts in the NFL: in alphabetical order Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb. Collins had burst into that tier. Despite missing the last three-quarters of the Bills game after popping his right hamstring, Collins still leads the league with 567 yards in receptions, 74 yards ahead of number two man Chase. Collins was making the three–year 72.75 million dollar contract extension he signed in the offseason look like a bargain for the Texans.

Where do explosive plays come in the passing game while Collins is out? Stefon Diggs is performing like a premium possession receiver. Diggs is on pace for 105 catches, but at just 10.2 yards per catch. Pass protection is an issue in allowing deep routes to unfold, but Tank Dell should be thrown a long ball at least once per half. Make it clear to defenses that Dell’s speed must be accounted for.

As for this Sunday at New England, the 1-4 Patriots stink because their offense is atrocious. The Pats turn to third overall 2024 draft selection Drake Maye for his first start at quarterback. The Texans' D should be able to confuse him and cause at least a couple of turnovers. The Pats’ defense has been generally solid, but is weakened by the loss of safety Jabrill Peppers who went on the exempt list this week as he faces drug and ugly domestic violence charges.

Meanwhile, in Cleveland

It is rather amusing that legal matters aside, Deshaun Watson looks to have largely wrecked his career by going on a Texans-tolerated paid de facto strike and not playing in the 2021 season. Remember that while things fell apart for the Texans in the 2020 season (tumbling from back-to-back AFC South first place finishes to a 4-12 record), Watson was generally outstanding. That he led the NFL in passing yardage (4863) was somewhat a product of having to throw so much with the team behind most of the time, but Watson that season threw 33 touchdown passes with just seven interceptions. Then he threw in the towel.

Whether his skills atrophied, vanity caught up with him, subsequent shoulder issues linger, and a shaky offensive line has hurt, Watson flat out stinks with the Cleveland Browns so far this season. Frankly, the Browns’ organization is getting what it deserves. The way it swore to having thoroughly vetted Watson’s character was laughable. Guaranteeing the entirety of a five-year 230 million dollar contract was sub-idiotic. What the Browns gave to the Texans in trading for him...

The Texans should have set up auto-delivery of a weekly thank you note to the Browns for the next, oh, 10 years. 15?

For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube

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Houston has a revamped offense and o-line. Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images.

Expectations

The Texans are favored to win the AFC South for a third straight season with a team led by young stars quarterback C.J. Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson. Stroud’s strong first two years helped the Texans turn things around and this year they’ll try to reach the playoffs in three straight seasons for the first time in franchise history. Stroud will be directing a new offense led by first-time offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who took over after Bobby Slowik was fired this offseason following Houston’s loss to the Chiefs in the divisional round. General manager Nick Caserio also beefed up the team’s receiving corps, led by Nico Collins, by adding veteran Christian Kirk and drafting Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. Coach DeMeco Ryans has vowed the offensive line will be better this season after Stroud was sacked 52 times last season, which was second-most in the league. But it’s difficult to see how his protection will be better after they traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil and didn’t make any big moves to replace him. Defensively, Anderson should take another step forward in his second year playing with veteran Danielle Hunter after the third-overall pick in the 2023 draft had 17 sacks combined in his first two seasons. Cornerback Derek Stingley returns to lead a talented young secondary after earning first team AP All-Pro honors last season when he had five interceptions and defended 18 passes.

New faces

OC Nick Caley, WR Jayden Higgins, WR Christian Kirk, WR Jaylin Noel, LT Cam Robinson, RB Nick Chubb, RT Aireontae Ersery, LG Laken Tomlinson, C Jake Andrews.

Key losses

LT Laremy Tunsil, WR John Metchie III, G Kenyon Green, TE Brevin Jordan, CB Eric Murray, WR Robert Woods, CB Kris Boyd.

Strengths

Stroud and Houston’s stacked receiving group should be the stars of the team this season. The 2023 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year has been great in his first two seasons to bring the Texans back into contention after an awful stretch. His interception rate was up last season but he’s looking for improvement this season in Caley’s offense, which he has described as “exciting.” He’ll have plenty of strong targets to throw to, led by Collins, who had a second straight 1,000-yard season last year despite missing five games with injuries. He’ll be joined by Kirk, who should fill in at the slot with Tank Dell likely to miss all season recovering from an injury he suffered in December. Higgins and Noel come to Houston after combining for 2,377 yards receiving and 17 touchdowns last season at Iowa State.

Weaknesses

It’s hard to see how the offensive line will be improved this season with Tunsil gone to Washington. Though he was penalty-prone, he was the team’s most consistent lineman. They completely revamped the line after his trade and return just one starter from last year’s group. They’ll likely rely on rookie Ersery to protect Stroud’s blind side after taking him in the second round of the draft. He started 38 games at left tackle over three seasons at Minnesota. Veteran Tytus Howard returns at right tackle after starting 16 games there last season. The center is Jake Andrews in his first year in Houston and he returns after missing all of last season with an injury before being released by the Patriots. Left guard Laken Tomlinson and right guard Ed Ingram are also new to the team.

Camp development

Houston’s secondary sustained a big blow in camp when safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson suffered a leg injury. The injury isn’t season-ending but he is likely to miss significant time. Gardner-Johnson is in his first year in Houston after he was acquired from the Eagles in March in exchange for left guard Kenyon Green. He was expected to be the team’s starting free safety after the Texans lost Eric Murray in free agency to the Jaguars. The Texans will also be without backup Jimmie Ward indefinitely after he was placed on the commissioner exempt list Tuesday as he faces a felony domestic violence charge after a June arrest.

Fantasy player to watch

Collins should have another big year after finishing with more than 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. He’s had 15 touchdowns combined in the last two seasons despite missing seven games with injuries.

BetMGM Sportsbook

Win Super Bowl: 35-1.

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