THE PALLILOG
How mounting challenges will put Houston Texans’ resilience to ultimate test
Oct 9, 2024, 9:50 pm
THE PALLILOG
It’s been years since the Texans commanded the vast majority of sports interest in Houston this early in October. While the Astros’ early exit from the baseball playoffs was a downer, the good news is the Texans are mostly worthy of the increased focus (aside: the Rockets aren’t NBA title contenders, but that is an interesting squad starting its season next week).The Texans are no juggernaut, but a 4-1 record is never to be scoffed at in the National Football League.
The offense has thus far been more hype than performance. Only in the opening win at Indianapolis have the Texans put up more than 24 points. Last season they scored more than 24 only once in the last eight regular season games. The 45 points posted in the playoff victory over Cleveland (granted, 14 of them the result of interception returns for touchdowns) was no more impressive than the 10 mustered in the following week’s loss at Baltimore was pitiful.
C.J. Stroud has been largely excellent, but a mediocre offensive line and lackluster running game keep the attack from elite status. Joe Mixon being out since getting an ankle messed up in week two against the Bears obviously hurts, but missing Mixon isn’t like if the 1978 Oilers had to play without Earl Campbell. The Texans still don’t have a run longer than 18 yards this season, which is absurd five games in. I don’t think anyone believes the offensive line has been good so far. Anyone thinking the o-line hasn’t been a disappointment is just wrong. It doesn’t take particular expertise to know the o-line infrequently controls the line of scrimmage. Left guard Kenyon Green has been healthy in his third season, but his play is that of a first round bust. Veteran right guard Shaq Mason seems to be in decline. Rookie second round pick Blake Fisher isn’t halfway through his freshman year, but has not been good when filling in for either Laremy Tunsil at left tackle or Tytus Howard at right tackle. On the plus side, Tunsil did manage a penalty-free game against the Bills! To what extent coaching is a factor I don’t know, but the coaching is not getting more out of less from the offensive line to this point.
Now the Texans face playing at least four games without wide receiver Nico Collins, who was playing at first team All-Pro level as a follow-up to his huge breakout 2023 season. Over the last three seasons there was a clear first tier of wideouts in the NFL: in alphabetical order Ja'Marr Chase, Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and CeeDee Lamb. Collins had burst into that tier. Despite missing the last three-quarters of the Bills game after popping his right hamstring, Collins still leads the league with 567 yards in receptions, 74 yards ahead of number two man Chase. Collins was making the three–year 72.75 million dollar contract extension he signed in the offseason look like a bargain for the Texans.
Where do explosive plays come in the passing game while Collins is out? Stefon Diggs is performing like a premium possession receiver. Diggs is on pace for 105 catches, but at just 10.2 yards per catch. Pass protection is an issue in allowing deep routes to unfold, but Tank Dell should be thrown a long ball at least once per half. Make it clear to defenses that Dell’s speed must be accounted for.
As for this Sunday at New England, the 1-4 Patriots stink because their offense is atrocious. The Pats turn to third overall 2024 draft selection Drake Maye for his first start at quarterback. The Texans' D should be able to confuse him and cause at least a couple of turnovers. The Pats’ defense has been generally solid, but is weakened by the loss of safety Jabrill Peppers who went on the exempt list this week as he faces drug and ugly domestic violence charges.
Meanwhile, in Cleveland
It is rather amusing that legal matters aside, Deshaun Watson looks to have largely wrecked his career by going on a Texans-tolerated paid de facto strike and not playing in the 2021 season. Remember that while things fell apart for the Texans in the 2020 season (tumbling from back-to-back AFC South first place finishes to a 4-12 record), Watson was generally outstanding. That he led the NFL in passing yardage (4863) was somewhat a product of having to throw so much with the team behind most of the time, but Watson that season threw 33 touchdown passes with just seven interceptions. Then he threw in the towel.
Whether his skills atrophied, vanity caught up with him, subsequent shoulder issues linger, and a shaky offensive line has hurt, Watson flat out stinks with the Cleveland Browns so far this season. Frankly, the Browns’ organization is getting what it deserves. The way it swore to having thoroughly vetted Watson’s character was laughable. Guaranteeing the entirety of a five-year 230 million dollar contract was sub-idiotic. What the Browns gave to the Texans in trading for him...
The Texans should have set up auto-delivery of a weekly thank you note to the Browns for the next, oh, 10 years. 15?
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Houston Rockets (16-8) face the Golden State Warriors (14-9) at home on Wednesday at 9:30 p.m. EST, with the Warriors aiming to snap their three-game road losing streak. The game pits two Western Conference contenders looking to solidify their standings as the season progresses.
The Rockets, currently third in the West, have excelled in second-chance opportunities, leading the conference with 14.2 offensive rebounds per game. Alperen Sengun anchors this effort, averaging 3.4 offensive boards per game alongside his strong all-around performance of 18.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. Houston will look to exploit this strength against a Golden State team ranked second in the league in total rebounds per game (48.7), thanks in part to Kevon Looney’s steady 7.9 boards per game.
Meanwhile, the Warriors, fifth in the standings, continue to rely on Stephen Curry's leadership. Curry is averaging 23 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.6 assists, but Golden State’s struggles on the road and a recent shooting slump (42.9% over the last 10 games) have hindered their consistency.
Golden State’s strength from beyond the arc will be tested against Houston’s perimeter defense. The Warriors are averaging 15.2 made three-pointers per game, a sharp contrast to the 11.8 threes allowed by the Rockets. On the other end, Houston will aim to exploit Golden State’s slightly generous defensive field goal percentage of 43.8%.
The Rockets come into the game having gone 6-4 in their last 10 outings, averaging 112.3 points and a stifling defensive effort that has limited opponents to just 107.3 points per game. The Warriors, meanwhile, are 4-6 over the same stretch, struggling offensively with just 107 points per game.
Houston may be without key contributors Tari Eason (concussion protocol) and Fred VanVleet (knee). The Warriors list Andrew Wiggins as day-to-day with an ankle issue, while De’Anthony Melton remains sidelined for the season.
The Rockets are slight favorites at -2.5 according to BetMGM Sportsbook, with the total points over/under set at 221.5. Houston’s home-court advantage and rebounding dominance may prove decisive against a Warriors team seeking to find its rhythm.
Both teams have much to prove in this matchup of Western heavyweights. Houston’s continued rise and Golden State’s resolve to end their road struggles will define this pivotal contest.
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