THE PALLILOG
How undefeated streaks collide in clash between Texans and road warrior Lions
Nov 7, 2024, 4:41 pm
THE PALLILOG
With the Texans coming off their sorry second half showing at the Jets and the Detroit Lions coming to town riding a six-game winning streak, it has the look of pretender vs. contender Sunday night at NRG Stadium. The 7-1 Lions are obviously the better team but that is no guarantee that they will be the better team Sunday night. The point spread is only three and a half points. It’s not as if a Texans victory would be a stunning upset. The Texans knocking off the Lions would not balance the books for the Detroit Tigers having bounced the Astros from the baseball playoffs last month, but it would be one of the better regular season wins in Texans’ history.
If not upsetting, it certainly isn’t uplifting that Nick Caserio made zero consequential moves before Tuesday’s trade deadline. If you’re a Texans fan it is upsetting, though shouldn’t be infuriating. Claiming off waivers an offensive lineman (Zachary Thomas) who was getting about 10 snaps per game on one of the very worst o-lines in the NFL (New England Patriots) does not qualify as consequential. It’s not as if Caserio could snap his fingers and make a great deal for a legitimate starting left guard. But his job is to build the roster and he made nothing that qualifies as even a modest upgrade to the most glaring weakness on the team. Play can’t be much worse than what Kenyon Green was providing at left guard before his season-ending injury. But Kenyon was only playing because the staff considered him better than Kendrick Green and Jarrett Patterson. Or, Kenyon was getting unwarranted extended run to prove conclusively he was a waste of a first-round draft pick in 2022.
If Caserio believes the Texans are a bonafide threat in the AFC, adding nothing is a clear fail. Any gurgling about “we believe in our guys” as justification for inertia should be scoffed at, unless Caserio or anyone else believes the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, and Ravens didn’t “believe in their guys.” All those AFC contenders made clear upgrades. This is not talking about the Texans trading high draft choices. Last week the Minnesota Vikings acquired Jacksonville starting left tackle Cam Robinson for a conditional fifth-round pick.
Tale of the tape
As for Sunday, NBC has to be hoping the Texans being 4-0 this season at NRG Stadium bodes well for them, at least giving the Lions a good game. The Texans are with the Chiefs, Bills, Commanders (!), and Bears (!!) as unbeaten at home. On the other hand, the Lions are a perfect 4-0 on the road. The Chiefs and Falcons have also yet to lose on the road.
While hoping that Aidan Hutchinson makes a complete recovery from his multiple leg fractures, the Lions’ beastly defensive end’s absence sure helps the cause of the Texans’ feeble pass-protecting offensive line. Hutchinson was the early leader for Defensive Player of the Year with seven and a half sacks in five games before he went down. The Lions traded for DE Za’Darius Smith from Cleveland this week. It’s unclear whether Smith makes his Detroit debut chasing C.J. Stroud.
The Texans have topped 30 points in a game once this season. The Lions average an NFL-leading 32.3 per game, topping 30 in four of their last five games, only coming up short last Sunday in a rain-soaked 24-14 win at Green Bay. Over those five games quarterback Jared Goff has completed an absurd 83.8 percent of his passes, with 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. For the season Goff is completing 74.9 percent. If he maintains that number, he’ll break the NFL record of 74.4 that Drew Brees posted with the Saints in 2018.
Third time's the charm?
Only once in their history have the Texans managed three consecutive winning seasons. They went 9-7 in each of them under Bill O’Brien in 2014, ‘15, and ‘16. They did so with three different quarterbacks leading them in passing yardage: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, and Brock Osweiler (really!). The Lions are two victories from securing their first back-to-back-to-back winning seasons since 1993, ‘94, and ‘95. That was the heyday of the great Barry Sanders at running back. Three different quarterbacks led the Lions in passing yardage those years. You’re probably fibbing if you claimed “I know them: Rodney Peete, Dave Krieg, and Scott Mitchell.”
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
The Astros are always in season for discussion. Our Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop Mondays: Click here to watch!
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The Houston Rockets (16-8) face the Golden State Warriors (14-9) at home on Wednesday at 9:30 p.m. EST, with the Warriors aiming to snap their three-game road losing streak. The game pits two Western Conference contenders looking to solidify their standings as the season progresses.
The Rockets, currently third in the West, have excelled in second-chance opportunities, leading the conference with 14.2 offensive rebounds per game. Alperen Sengun anchors this effort, averaging 3.4 offensive boards per game alongside his strong all-around performance of 18.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 5.3 assists. Houston will look to exploit this strength against a Golden State team ranked second in the league in total rebounds per game (48.7), thanks in part to Kevon Looney’s steady 7.9 boards per game.
Meanwhile, the Warriors, fifth in the standings, continue to rely on Stephen Curry's leadership. Curry is averaging 23 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 6.6 assists, but Golden State’s struggles on the road and a recent shooting slump (42.9% over the last 10 games) have hindered their consistency.
Golden State’s strength from beyond the arc will be tested against Houston’s perimeter defense. The Warriors are averaging 15.2 made three-pointers per game, a sharp contrast to the 11.8 threes allowed by the Rockets. On the other end, Houston will aim to exploit Golden State’s slightly generous defensive field goal percentage of 43.8%.
The Rockets come into the game having gone 6-4 in their last 10 outings, averaging 112.3 points and a stifling defensive effort that has limited opponents to just 107.3 points per game. The Warriors, meanwhile, are 4-6 over the same stretch, struggling offensively with just 107 points per game.
Houston may be without key contributors Tari Eason (concussion protocol) and Fred VanVleet (knee). The Warriors list Andrew Wiggins as day-to-day with an ankle issue, while De’Anthony Melton remains sidelined for the season.
The Rockets are slight favorites at -2.5 according to BetMGM Sportsbook, with the total points over/under set at 221.5. Houston’s home-court advantage and rebounding dominance may prove decisive against a Warriors team seeking to find its rhythm.
Both teams have much to prove in this matchup of Western heavyweights. Houston’s continued rise and Golden State’s resolve to end their road struggles will define this pivotal contest.
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