THE PALLILOG
How the Houston Texans can navigate the Wild Card storm to postseason glory
Nov 29, 2023, 5:58 pm
THE PALLILOG
It's fun having meaningful December football in town. While the Texans' loss to Jacksonville means it would take a little holiday miracle for them to win the AFC South, snaring one of the three AFC Wild Card spots is right in front of them.
There are still six weeks of play remaining, but the AFC Division winners seem pretty clear. Miami has command of the East, Baltimore the North, Jacksonville the South, and as always Kansas City the West. If holding out hope that the Texans can overtake the Jaguars, crazy stuff happens, but that would be extra crazy. If the Texans win out to finish 12-5 (unlikely), the Jaguars still take the division by winning four of their last six games unless they lose to the lowly Titans. The Jags also have the Bengals, Panthers, and Buccaneers as should-be-wins. If the Texans post a nifty 5-1 closing stretch, the Jags need just go 3-3, again provided they beat the Titans.
So, the Texans' realistic focus is on a Wild Card. I'm sure DeMeco Ryans would say, “No, our entire focus is on the Broncos.” For the team, sure. The rest of us can take six games at a time. Ahead of the Texans now are the 7-4 Browns and Steelers. They are tied with the 6-5 Colts (technically behind them with Indy having beaten the Texans in the season opener) and Broncos.
The Texans have to finish ahead of at least two of the four. That the Texans control their destiny is false, because the whole point of destiny/fate/kismet is that they are beyond control. So let's say the dominoes are lined up for the Texans to knock over.
They already own the tiebreaker over the Steelers. The Broncos are here Sunday, the Browns play at NRG Stadium Christmas Eve. The Texans' regular season finale takes them to Indianapolis. Beating the Broncos and Colts should do the job, provided the Texans handle the Titans in their two upcoming meetings. That would assure the Texans at least 10 wins, with the Browns game and a date with the offensively offensive Jets both winnable matchups.
Of course there is the other side of the coin. Middle of the pack opponents view the Texans as a winnable matchup.
A loss to Denver and the Texans fall a game plus the tiebreaker back of the Broncos. After an atrocious 1-5 start to the Sean Payton coaching era, the Broncos head to Houston having ripped off five straight wins, throttling the Chiefs as one of them. However, four of the five wins happened in the Mile High City.
The Bronco offense is mediocre. Quarterback Russell Wilson is clearly over the hill. During the Broncos' win streak Wilson has thrown for more than 200 yards once. Quite a contrast to C.J. Stroud's active NFL rookie record streak of four straight 300 yard passing games. While “Let Russ Cook” is a thing of the past, during the win streak he is not messing up the meal. Over his last five games Wilson has thrown eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions.
In Wilson's heyday with the Seahawks, touch on the deep ball was one of his signatures. Delivering the goodies one might say (shoutout to Ciara!). The Broncos have a capable tandem of wide receivers in Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Brenham native Sutton has been the better of the two and has eight touchdown catches, only Tyreek Hill (10) and Mike Evans (nine) have more TD grabs this season. The Texans' secondary has been toasted by the long ball week in and week out. A good deal of blame for that goes to the defensive backs but the Texans' too often effete pass rush is at least as big a component. A QB needs time for receivers to get deep. Most QBs generally get that time against the Texans. This explains why the Texans claimed underachieving defensive end Derek Barnett off the waiver wire after the Eagles cut him earlier this week. The 2017 first round pick missed almost all of 2022 after tearing an ACL in the season opener. In 2021 he played in 16 games and mustered all of two sacks. This season Barnett's playing time was scarce.
On the flip side, Texans' pass catchers won't have to worry about illegal hits from suspended safety Kareem Jackson. The 35-year-old former Texan is a standup guy, but while not thought of as a head hunter like safeties could be in days gone by (think ex-Broncos Steve Atwater and John Lynch) Jackson has been guilty of multiple hits clearly against today's rules. Earlier this season Jackson had a four game suspension reduced to two games on appeal, then in his first game back made another flagrantly illegal if not flat out dirty helmet-to-helmet hit. No reduction on appeal of this four game suspension. No Jackson versus the Texans Sunday.
Looking for more Texans coverage?
Texans on Tap is the weekly Texan-centric podcast I am part of alongside Brandon Strange and Josh Jordan. On our regular schedule a first video segment goes up Monday on the SportsMapTexans YouTube channel.
Sunday night matchups don't get much exciting than this, as the Houston Texans host the Detroit Lions in prime-time at NRG.
The Lions come into this game on a six-game winning streak looking every bit of the best team in football. Houston on the other hand has lost two of their last three games with a struggling offense unable to protect their quarterback.
CJ Stroud has only one passing touchdown over this span, and is clearly having trouble adjusting to life without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins.
If Houston is going to come away with an upset victory, they will need big performances from Tank Dell and Joe Mixon. After catching 4 passes against the Colts two weeks ago, Mixon not only failed to catch a single pass against the Jets, but he wasn't even targeted.
Considering the Texans' offensive line issues, choosing not to use Mixon as a pass catcher is hard to fathom. Especially since he and Dell are the team's top 2 playmakers.
What's working in the Texans' favor?
They play this game at home, where they are undefeated this season. A lot of the team's protection issues have popped up on the road, so communication should be easier for the offense on their home turf.
Bulls on Parade
We have good news and bad news about the defense this week. On the positive side, Azeez Al-Shaair and Jimmy Ward have returned to practice. If they're able to contribute on Sunday night, that would give the defense a lift.
And now for the bad news. Will Anderson has yet to practice this week after rolling his ankle in the Jets game. If he is unable to practice on Friday, it's hard to imagine he'll be active against Detroit.
X-factors
The Texans have to show some improvement on the offensive line this week.
Houston must lean on Joe Mixon again, as Nico Collins isn't expected to play.
Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best receivers in the league, and he does most of his damage from the slot. If the Texans continue to deploy Jalen Pitre against premier receivers in man coverage, St. Brown is going to light up the scoreboard.
What would a win over the Lions mean to Houston?
The Texans are no longer considered a true championship contender because of their losses to the Packers, Vikings, and Jets. In fact, the Bills are the only team with a winning record that the Texans have beaten.
An upset win over the streaking Lions would change that narrative.
What does Vegas think?
The Lions are currently favored by 3.5 and the total is set at 49 points.
Don't miss the full preview of Texans-Lions in the video above!
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