SO CLOSE!

Examining the intricate playoff landscape for the Houston Texans

Examining the intricate playoff landscape for the Houston Texans
Can the Texans make the playoffs in DeMeco Ryans' first season as head coach? Photo by Getty Images.

Back in the 1950s, NFL Commissioner Bert Bell said his goal for the league was parity and “on any given Sunday, any team could beat any other team.”

Bell’s quote was turned into a football movie, Any Given Sunday starring Al Pacino in1999. True to form, the film broke even at the box office.

Fast forward, while it’s not an absolute must-win game, it’s a “given” that the Houston Texans should give serious thought to defeating the 9-5 Cleveland Browns on Sunday at NRG Stadium.

With just three games remaining, Commissioner Bell would smile at the AFC standings with three teams bunched on top with 8-6 marks: Jaguars, Colts and Texans. Their records may be even but they’re not equal.

As things stand today, because of an intricate tiebreaker system that would have Albert Einstein switching his major to phys ed, the Jags have a 76-percent chance of making the playoffs, the Colts are 64-percent likely to play in the post-season, and the Texans are at 52-percent for the playoffs.

Talk about parity (with a boost from the NFL’s expanded playoff system started in 2020), with only three weeks left in the season, only three of the AFC’s 16 teams are eliminated from the post-season: Jets, Titans and Patriots.

Vegas oddsmakers have been in a tizzy over the Texans-Browns game. The opening line had the Texans favored by 2-1/2 points. Heading into the weekend, the Browns now are the betting choice by 3 points, a wild 5-1/2 point swing. Of course, it was assumed that Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud would escape concussion protocol and play against the Browns. That doesn’t appear the case as Case Keenum (or Casey Keenum as one Houston news anchor calls him) will be behind center for the Texans.

Keenum led the Texans to a last-minute victory over the Tennessee Titans (cosplay Houston Oilers) last week. So it’s not like the Texans are in desperate straits at quarterback.

Playing quarterback has been hazardous duty in the AFC this season. All three leaders in the AFC probably will start understudy quarterbacks on Sunday. C.J. Beathard likely will replace Trevor Lawrence who’s in concussion protocol for the Jaguars. Gardner Minshew replaced Colts starter Anthony Richardson early this season and has hung onto the job.

As Ron Popeil used to say, wait there’s more. Veteran Joe Flacco has risen from the scrap heap and will quarterback the Browns against the Texans on Sunday. Like Keenum, Flacco led his team to a narrow win last week. But Flacco had three interceptions against the Bears, while Keenum threw only one pass to the other team last week.

Seven teams in the AFC will qualify for the playoffs. Right now, the Texans are No. 8, on the outside looking in. The Jaguars are the No. 4 seed, the Colts are No. 7. The Texans still have a better than even shot at the post-season with their final two games against the Titans and Colts.

If they lose Sunday to the Browns, the Texans’ playoff chances drop to 23 percent and as Scarlett O’Hara would say, they’ll have to depend on the kindness of strangers to make the post-season.

But if the Texans win Sunday, it will lock up a winning season for the Texans. Their pre-season win total was just 5.5 games.

If the Texans win out, they will match their total wins for the past three seasons … combined. And DeMeco Ryans might start making room for his Coach of the Year trophy.

Most Popular

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome

Listen Live

ESPN Houston 97.5 FM
Nuggets defeat the Rockets, 116-111. Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images.

Jamal Murray had 39 points, Michael Porter Jr. added 17 points and nine rebounds and the Denver Nuggets beat Houston 116-111 on Sunday night to snap the Rockets' nine-game win streak.

Murray, who scored 17 in the first half, had 17 in the third quarter as Denver outscored the Rockets 39-22 in the quarter to take a 96-79 lead.

Russell Westbrook had 14 points off the bench, Aaron Gordon scored 13 points with eight assists and DeAndre Jordan had 11 points and 15 rebounds for the Nuggets, which shot 51% and were 10 of 21 on 3-pointers.

Jalen Green scored 30 points, and Dillon Brooks added 21 points for Houston. Alperen Sengun had 17 points, 14 rebounds and 10 assists, and Steven Adams finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds for the Rockets, which shot 44% and were 11 of 34 from behind the arc.

Trailing 109-100 with 1 ½ minutes left, Houston used a 7-1 run to cut the lead to three on a Sengun layup with 21 seconds left, but Christian Braun made two free throws with 19 seconds remaining to push the lead back to five.

Takeaways

Nuggets: Nikola Jokic missed his fourth straight game with left ankle impingement, and Denver improved to 2-2 with him out of the lineup.

Rockets: Houston remains in second place in the Western Conference with 10 games left, but the Nuggets closed to within a game of Houston.

Key moment

Sengun made one of two free throws with 14 seconds remaining, and Murray made two free throws two seconds later to push the lead to 114-108.

Key stat

Houston finished 22 of 34 from the free throw line, while Denver made 18 of 26.

Up next

Denver hosts the Chicago Bulls on Monday night, while Houston hosts the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday night.

SportsMap Emails
Are Awesome