THE PALLILOG
How Houston Texans dream playoff scenario starts with these dominoes falling
Jan 11, 2024, 12:26 pm
There's a path for the Texans to host another playoff game. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
The Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns meeting in a Wild Card Weekend matchup. Excuse me. “Super” Wild Card Weekend matchup. It’s a matchup of two fan bases that have had to put up with way more failure than success since getting these franchises. The second edition of the Browns joined the NFL for the 1999 season, the Texans debuted three years later. Browns fans have had it much worse. The Texans have in multiple seasons been the worst team in the league, but they never went 0-16 as the Browns did in 2017. The Texans never went 1-15 as the Browns did in 2016. This is Cleveland’s 25th season since re-entering the NFL. Only four of them have produced winning records. 25 seasons without even one division championship. The Texans last weekend claimed their seventh AFC South crown with 2023 being their ninth winning season in 22 tries. Neither has come close to sniffing a Super Bowl appearance, both having failed to reach an AFC Championship Game. By Saturday night one of them will be within one victory of breaking through to the NFL’s semifinals.
Less than three weeks ago the Browns dominated the Texans at NRG Stadium. The Texans have several good reasons to think the second time around can be a success for them like the song “The Second Time Around” was for Shalimar in 1980. That song was on the album “Big Fun.” And isn’t that what this Texans’ season has been.
The C.J. Stroud-Joe Flacco quarterback matchup is a compelling storyline. It didn’t occur when the Browns dominated here because Stroud was sidelined in concussion protocol. The former Ohio State Buckeye and lock for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (with all due respect to Rams’ wide receiver Puka Nacua and his sensational rookie season) will try to ruin Cleveland’s hopes. Stroud's presence assures nothing, but there is little chance the Browns' defense overmatches Stroud the way it did Case Keenum. The Texans' offensive line need needs to have at least a decent day. Cleveland gave up the fewest yards in the NFL this season, and the fewest passing yards. In conjunction with having sackmeister Myles Garrett, the Browns send an extra pass rusher (meaning at least a five man rush) as much as any team in the NFL. Stroud will need to make some plays on the run, including pulling the ball down and running himself.
Meanwhile, Joe Flacco hopes to repeat his Texans-shredding performance which thus far is the apex of his amazing resurrection. Flacco turns 39 Wednesday. He hadn’t retired but he was finished before the QB-desperate Browns signed him November 20. Less than two weeks later Flacco made his first start. The Rams blew out the Browns 36-19. Since then Flacco has won all four of his starts (he sat out the meaningless for Cleveland regular season finale), throwing for more than 300 yards in each of them. On the list are the 368 yards and three touchdowns for which he torched the Texans. However…
Will Anderson missed the Cleveland game while recovering from his high-ankle sprain. His pass rushing compadre Jonathan Greenard lasted just three snaps before an ankle injury felled him. Greenard hasn’t played since. Anderson has played in the last two games, though only 47 percent of the defensive snaps against the Colts. Having Anderson Saturday is a boost to the Texans’ chances of preventing Flacco from tearing them apart again. Flacco routinely had all the time he needed to throw and throw deep. The Texans’ secondary has been vulnerable to the long ball all season, and Amari Cooper destroyed them Christmas Eve with 11 catches for 265 yards. Texans' defensive backs took turns getting schooled. However, Cooper bruised a heel in that game and sat out the last two. It’s not nice to root for injuries to inhibit an opponent’s performance, but if Cooper isn’t 100 percent, the Texans won’t be complaining. Unless DeMeco Ryans is busy dreaming of succeeding Nick Saban at Alabama (get outta here!) expect the Texans to have a better plan toward keeping Cooper under control. Not that things always go as planned.
The turnover battle is an X-factor in every game. The Texans were plus-10 in turnover margin this season. The Browns were minus-nine. As spectacular as Flacco has been, he has thrown at least one interception in all five of his starts. Stroud last threw a pick before Thanksgiving, none in his last five games.
The Texans’ dream scenario this weekend of course starts with them downing the Browns. That parlayed with road upsets by the Dolphins somehow in frigid Kansas City and the Steelers winning at Buffalo would get the Texans a home game vs. Miami in the Divisional Round. Likelihood of a Texans/Dolphins/Steelers trifecta hitting? Five percent tops. Hey, better than zero.
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Isaac Paredes has been a steady force in the middle of the Astros’ order, but a tweaked hamstring suffered during Thursday’s win over the White Sox may force Houston to recalibrate, again.
If Paredes misses time, the most logical shuffle would see Jose Altuve sliding back to second base, with Mauricio Dubón stepping in at third. It’s a reasonable patch. But internally, there’s also some intrigue around whether Cam Smith—currently thriving in right field—could slide back to his original position on the infield. The idea isn’t without merit; Smith is the club’s best offensive option at third in Paredes’ absence. But defensively, it’s hard to justify moving him right now. Smith made several standout plays in the Chicago series, reinforcing just how important his glove has become to the Astros’ outfield defense. One thing is for sure, the Astros can't afford to play both Dubon and Brendon Rodgers in the infield regularly. The offense would take a huge hit.
Timing, however, might be on Houston’s side. The next stretch of games features the Twins, Athletics, and Angels—three teams the Astros can beat even while navigating lineup instability. It helps that Yainer Diaz and Christian Walker are showing signs of life at the plate. Diaz, in particular, has been red-hot, posting an OPS north of 1.200 over the past week. Walker is batting over .300 during that same span, giving the Astros enough firepower to survive short-term turbulence.
Elsewhere, the outfield presents its own set of choices. Jacob Melton has shown enough in the field to warrant a serious look as Chas McCormick’s replacement when he returns from injury. He’s still searching for consistency at the plate, batting under .200 in his first 10 big league games. But his arm and left-handed bat give manager Joe Espada a little more lineup flexibility—especially with Yordan Alvarez still out and the offense skewing right-handed.
For now, the Astros have room to adjust. But if Paredes ends up missing significant time, they’ll need more than just a few temporary solutions to keep their momentum going.
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