THE PALLILOG
How Houston Texans dream playoff scenario starts with these dominoes falling
Jan 11, 2024, 12:26 pm
There's a path for the Texans to host another playoff game. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
The Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns meeting in a Wild Card Weekend matchup. Excuse me. “Super” Wild Card Weekend matchup. It’s a matchup of two fan bases that have had to put up with way more failure than success since getting these franchises. The second edition of the Browns joined the NFL for the 1999 season, the Texans debuted three years later. Browns fans have had it much worse. The Texans have in multiple seasons been the worst team in the league, but they never went 0-16 as the Browns did in 2017. The Texans never went 1-15 as the Browns did in 2016. This is Cleveland’s 25th season since re-entering the NFL. Only four of them have produced winning records. 25 seasons without even one division championship. The Texans last weekend claimed their seventh AFC South crown with 2023 being their ninth winning season in 22 tries. Neither has come close to sniffing a Super Bowl appearance, both having failed to reach an AFC Championship Game. By Saturday night one of them will be within one victory of breaking through to the NFL’s semifinals.
Less than three weeks ago the Browns dominated the Texans at NRG Stadium. The Texans have several good reasons to think the second time around can be a success for them like the song “The Second Time Around” was for Shalimar in 1980. That song was on the album “Big Fun.” And isn’t that what this Texans’ season has been.
The C.J. Stroud-Joe Flacco quarterback matchup is a compelling storyline. It didn’t occur when the Browns dominated here because Stroud was sidelined in concussion protocol. The former Ohio State Buckeye and lock for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (with all due respect to Rams’ wide receiver Puka Nacua and his sensational rookie season) will try to ruin Cleveland’s hopes. Stroud's presence assures nothing, but there is little chance the Browns' defense overmatches Stroud the way it did Case Keenum. The Texans' offensive line need needs to have at least a decent day. Cleveland gave up the fewest yards in the NFL this season, and the fewest passing yards. In conjunction with having sackmeister Myles Garrett, the Browns send an extra pass rusher (meaning at least a five man rush) as much as any team in the NFL. Stroud will need to make some plays on the run, including pulling the ball down and running himself.
Meanwhile, Joe Flacco hopes to repeat his Texans-shredding performance which thus far is the apex of his amazing resurrection. Flacco turns 39 Wednesday. He hadn’t retired but he was finished before the QB-desperate Browns signed him November 20. Less than two weeks later Flacco made his first start. The Rams blew out the Browns 36-19. Since then Flacco has won all four of his starts (he sat out the meaningless for Cleveland regular season finale), throwing for more than 300 yards in each of them. On the list are the 368 yards and three touchdowns for which he torched the Texans. However…
Will Anderson missed the Cleveland game while recovering from his high-ankle sprain. His pass rushing compadre Jonathan Greenard lasted just three snaps before an ankle injury felled him. Greenard hasn’t played since. Anderson has played in the last two games, though only 47 percent of the defensive snaps against the Colts. Having Anderson Saturday is a boost to the Texans’ chances of preventing Flacco from tearing them apart again. Flacco routinely had all the time he needed to throw and throw deep. The Texans’ secondary has been vulnerable to the long ball all season, and Amari Cooper destroyed them Christmas Eve with 11 catches for 265 yards. Texans' defensive backs took turns getting schooled. However, Cooper bruised a heel in that game and sat out the last two. It’s not nice to root for injuries to inhibit an opponent’s performance, but if Cooper isn’t 100 percent, the Texans won’t be complaining. Unless DeMeco Ryans is busy dreaming of succeeding Nick Saban at Alabama (get outta here!) expect the Texans to have a better plan toward keeping Cooper under control. Not that things always go as planned.
The turnover battle is an X-factor in every game. The Texans were plus-10 in turnover margin this season. The Browns were minus-nine. As spectacular as Flacco has been, he has thrown at least one interception in all five of his starts. Stroud last threw a pick before Thanksgiving, none in his last five games.
The Texans’ dream scenario this weekend of course starts with them downing the Browns. That parlayed with road upsets by the Dolphins somehow in frigid Kansas City and the Steelers winning at Buffalo would get the Texans a home game vs. Miami in the Divisional Round. Likelihood of a Texans/Dolphins/Steelers trifecta hitting? Five percent tops. Hey, better than zero.
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The Houston Texans enter the 2025 season with momentum, expectations, and no shortage of spotlight games. A 9.5-win total in Vegas reflects growing national respect—but also pressure to deliver.
Hot start, big stage
Houston opens with a tough but marquee road test in Los Angeles against the Rams before returning to NRG for a Monday Night Football showdown against the Buccaneers.
Division duels define the path
As always, the AFC South is crucial. Houston faces five division games from Week 3 to Week 13, including a big Jaguars rematch in Week 10. If Trevor Lawrence takes the leap, and his top targets Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter live up to the hype, Jacksonville could be Houston’s biggest in-division threat. Still, with win totals sitting at 7.5 for both the Colts and Jaguars (and 5.5 for the Titans), the Texans have a clear path to control the South.
Midseason grind, late-season edge
The Week 6 bye comes at a smart spot, especially with brutal road games on the horizon: at Seahawks (MNF), home for the 49ers, and a revenge date in Baltimore—all within Weeks 5–8. The stretch from Week 12 to Week 14 (Bills, at Colts, at Chiefs) could define the Texans’ playoff seeding—or whether they make it at all.
But there’s hope in the home stretch. Three of their last four games are at NRG, where Houston has played its best football. If the team’s still in the hunt, hosting the Cardinals, Raiders, and potentially playing for the division title in Week 18 vs. the Colts is a favorable setup.
Key questions ahead
- Can Houston shake off last year’s road struggles? The trip to Kansas City, as well as cross-country flights to L.A., Seattle, and Baltimore, will test their resolve.
- Will they flip the script against NFC teams? Houston struggled in interconference matchups in 2024, and the 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks aren’t soft spots.
- Is C.J. Stroud ready for primetime pressure? Four national games—including two Mondays and a huge Sunday night at Arrowhead—give the Texans the stage. Now it’s about the performance.
Bottom Line:
The Texans’ 2025 schedule is packed with statement opportunities and divisional tests. There’s enough home cooking in December to fuel a playoff push—but Houston will have to prove it can handle the road, the spotlight, and the rising competition in its own backyard.
Offseason observations
The Texans made some calculated and intriguing moves this offseason, especially on offense. They added dynamic weapons in WRs Christian Kirk, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins, along with RB Woody Marks, who profiles as the best receiving back in the draft—likely influenced by the Patriots’ historical use of third-down specialists like James White and Shane Vereen. OC Nick Caley, OL Coach Cole Popovich, and GM Nick Caserio all have a history with the Pats.
Protecting C.J. Stroud remains a clear priority too, as the Texans added OT Aireontae Ursery in the draft and created a true open competition on the offensive line through free agency, featuring a deep group.
One of the most notable moves recently was Higgins’ fully guaranteed four-year, $11.7 million deal—a rarity for non-first-rounders. That level of commitment from Caserio signals strong conviction in both Higgins’ talent and character. It also hints that Houston may have considered him with their original 25th overall pick before trading back. With Patriots alumni like Caley and Popovich now on staff, and Caserio pulling the strings, it’s clear the Texans are building a system that blends New England and Rams discipline with Houston’s new-wave of offensive firepower.
We have so much more to discuss. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
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