THE PALLILOG
How Houston Texans dream playoff scenario starts with these dominoes falling
Jan 11, 2024, 12:26 pm
There's a path for the Texans to host another playoff game. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images.
The Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns meeting in a Wild Card Weekend matchup. Excuse me. “Super” Wild Card Weekend matchup. It’s a matchup of two fan bases that have had to put up with way more failure than success since getting these franchises. The second edition of the Browns joined the NFL for the 1999 season, the Texans debuted three years later. Browns fans have had it much worse. The Texans have in multiple seasons been the worst team in the league, but they never went 0-16 as the Browns did in 2017. The Texans never went 1-15 as the Browns did in 2016. This is Cleveland’s 25th season since re-entering the NFL. Only four of them have produced winning records. 25 seasons without even one division championship. The Texans last weekend claimed their seventh AFC South crown with 2023 being their ninth winning season in 22 tries. Neither has come close to sniffing a Super Bowl appearance, both having failed to reach an AFC Championship Game. By Saturday night one of them will be within one victory of breaking through to the NFL’s semifinals.
Less than three weeks ago the Browns dominated the Texans at NRG Stadium. The Texans have several good reasons to think the second time around can be a success for them like the song “The Second Time Around” was for Shalimar in 1980. That song was on the album “Big Fun.” And isn’t that what this Texans’ season has been.
The C.J. Stroud-Joe Flacco quarterback matchup is a compelling storyline. It didn’t occur when the Browns dominated here because Stroud was sidelined in concussion protocol. The former Ohio State Buckeye and lock for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (with all due respect to Rams’ wide receiver Puka Nacua and his sensational rookie season) will try to ruin Cleveland’s hopes. Stroud's presence assures nothing, but there is little chance the Browns' defense overmatches Stroud the way it did Case Keenum. The Texans' offensive line need needs to have at least a decent day. Cleveland gave up the fewest yards in the NFL this season, and the fewest passing yards. In conjunction with having sackmeister Myles Garrett, the Browns send an extra pass rusher (meaning at least a five man rush) as much as any team in the NFL. Stroud will need to make some plays on the run, including pulling the ball down and running himself.
Meanwhile, Joe Flacco hopes to repeat his Texans-shredding performance which thus far is the apex of his amazing resurrection. Flacco turns 39 Wednesday. He hadn’t retired but he was finished before the QB-desperate Browns signed him November 20. Less than two weeks later Flacco made his first start. The Rams blew out the Browns 36-19. Since then Flacco has won all four of his starts (he sat out the meaningless for Cleveland regular season finale), throwing for more than 300 yards in each of them. On the list are the 368 yards and three touchdowns for which he torched the Texans. However…
Will Anderson missed the Cleveland game while recovering from his high-ankle sprain. His pass rushing compadre Jonathan Greenard lasted just three snaps before an ankle injury felled him. Greenard hasn’t played since. Anderson has played in the last two games, though only 47 percent of the defensive snaps against the Colts. Having Anderson Saturday is a boost to the Texans’ chances of preventing Flacco from tearing them apart again. Flacco routinely had all the time he needed to throw and throw deep. The Texans’ secondary has been vulnerable to the long ball all season, and Amari Cooper destroyed them Christmas Eve with 11 catches for 265 yards. Texans' defensive backs took turns getting schooled. However, Cooper bruised a heel in that game and sat out the last two. It’s not nice to root for injuries to inhibit an opponent’s performance, but if Cooper isn’t 100 percent, the Texans won’t be complaining. Unless DeMeco Ryans is busy dreaming of succeeding Nick Saban at Alabama (get outta here!) expect the Texans to have a better plan toward keeping Cooper under control. Not that things always go as planned.
The turnover battle is an X-factor in every game. The Texans were plus-10 in turnover margin this season. The Browns were minus-nine. As spectacular as Flacco has been, he has thrown at least one interception in all five of his starts. Stroud last threw a pick before Thanksgiving, none in his last five games.
The Texans’ dream scenario this weekend of course starts with them downing the Browns. That parlayed with road upsets by the Dolphins somehow in frigid Kansas City and the Steelers winning at Buffalo would get the Texans a home game vs. Miami in the Divisional Round. Likelihood of a Texans/Dolphins/Steelers trifecta hitting? Five percent tops. Hey, better than zero.
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If you are a believer in the third time is a charm, go ahead and book the Texans for their first ever appearance in the AFC Championship game! Saturday is the Texans’ third crack at the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs. Of course, the Texans had a third time is the charm opportunity at advancing beyond the division round back in 2016 and came nowhere close. Charm will have nothing to do with the outcome at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Chiefs have administered the Texans’ two most humiliating postseason defeats in franchise history. They came as the bookend postseason appearances of Bill O’Brien’s tenure as head coach. In 2015, the Texans won the worst division in the AFC (that sounds familiar) but as a division champ got to play host to the Wild Card 11-5 Chiefs. The visitors were three-point favorites. They won by 30. 30-0 to be more precise. Knile Davis returned the opening kickoff 106 yards for a touchdown. It would have been in the Texans’ best interest to have forfeited right then and there. In what was not exactly a shocking development, Texans’ quarterback Brian Hoyer wasn’t up to the task, throwing for just 112 yards and four interceptions. On the Chiefs’ side third-year tight end Travis Kelce had eight receptions for 128 yards. Taylor Swift was not in attendance.
The second Texans-Chiefs playoff get together is the most incredible game in Texans’ history. The Texans showed up in Missouri fresh off the greatest comeback win in their history, having come from down 16-0 in the third quarter to best the Buffalo Bills in overtime. In what could safely be characterized as stunning, the Texans put up three first quarter touchdowns for a 21-0 lead. *Massive bonus points if you can name the three Texans who scored those TDs, answer below. A field goal made it 24-0 Texans with 10:54 left in the second quarter. In a collapse tough to pull off, the Texans would trail before halftime. The Chiefs scored four touchdowns in nine minutes and eleven seconds of game time, with that Kelce fellow scoring the last three of them. Some will recall O’Brien calling a fake punt from his own 31-yard line with the Texans up 24-7. Too soon? Justin Reid (now pursuing his third Super Bowl ring in three seasons as a Chief) was stopped short. An even more damning O’Brien moment came later in that game when he actually had to use a timeout to change his mind and go for it with 11:49 left in the fourth quarter, the Texans down 48-31, and facing fourth and four at the K.C. 42. That was a fire-able on the spot offense! Instead it took an 0-4 start to the 2020 season for O’Brien to be ousted. 51-31 Chiefs was the final score, and they went on to win the first of their three Super Bowl titles in the ongoing Andy Reid/Patrick Mahomes era.
Back to the present
Those routs were then, this is now. For a 15-2 team the Chiefs seem vulnerable. Maximum credit to them for having won an NFL record 16 consecutive games decided by eight or fewer points, 11 of them this season including their 27-19 victory over the Texans December 21. Perhaps the two-time defending champions were often bored with the regular season and often did just enough to win. The Texans would have been tied with them late in the third quarter had Ka’imi Fairbairn not botched an extra point. On the other hand, it was the play that got them within 17-16 which resulted in Tank Dell’s catastrophic season-ending knee injury. Who besides Nico Collins will do something in the passing game Saturday? Last Saturday the Texans’ pass rush harassed and flustered Chargers’ quarterback Justin Herbert. Mahomes is a different breed. Four weeks ago the Texans sacked Mahomes just once and did not intercept him. That seemingly must change for the Texans to pull off what be a shocker for most people. Saturday’s high temperature forecast for Kansas City is 25 degrees. Not ideal for the Texans but better than if the game had been scheduled for Sunday when the high is supposed to be 16.
Still standing
Four Texans who dressed for the debacle five years ago will suit up against the Chiefs Saturday: Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard who were in their first season with the team, Fairbairn, and long snapper Jon Weeks. Granted he’s just a long snapper (important role but not physically taxing), but Weeks is in his 15th season with the Texans and has yet to miss a game-244 regular season games (with Saturday his 14th playoff game, also without a miss). Presuming he is back next season, Weeks (who turns 39 next month) can crack the top five list of most consecutive games played in NFL history by answering the bell in the first 12 regular season games.
*The Texans’ three early TDS in the 51-31 loss at KC: 1. Kenny Stills a 54-yard reception 2. Lonnie Johnson with a 10-yard return of a blocked punt 3. Darren Fells with a four-yard grab
For Texans’ conversation, catch Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and me on our Texans On Tap podcasts. Thursdays feature a preview of the upcoming game, and then we go live (then available on demand) after the final gun of the game: Texans on Tap - YouTube
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