The only way to pull off a big upset is to be a big underdog. The Texans have that going for them. The Baltimore Ravens finished the regular season as pretty clearly the best team in the NFL. They finished 13-4 to sit atop the AFC. They likely would have been 14-3 and riding a seven game winning streak if not for sitting quarterback Lamar Jackson and some others in a for Baltimore meaningless regular season finale. The Ravens finished fourth in the NFL in points scored and gave up fewer points than anyone else. They have seven Pro Bowlers to the Texans’ one. Man, seems like the Texans have no chance in Saturday’s Divisional Round matchup! To the undereducated perhaps. Baltimore “should” win the game. If what “should” happen always did, there would be no need to play the games.

This is the fourth season since the NFL expanded the postseason field to 14 teams and reduced the earning of a postseason bye to only the top team in each conference. Last season the top-seeded Chiefs and Eagles both advanced to the Super Bowl. The year before the top-seeded Titans and Packers were both ousted in the Divisional Round. So do the Ravens benefit more from the rest than they could suffer rust from not having played their “A” team in three weeks?

Coming off the rout of the Browns it feels like C.J. Stroud would give the Texans a fighting chance against the 49ers of the late-80s, the Cowboys of the early-90s, or any other elite team one would care to name. Still, before the 45 point eruption against the worst road defense in the NFL (as measured by points per game allowed), the Texans topped 23 points in just one of their prior eight games with Stroud having played in six of the eight. In his NFL debut Stroud never got the Texans in the end zone at Baltimore. Happily, that feels more like three years ago than three months and one week ago.

The Texans’ offensive line will need to fight off being overmatched. The Ravens bring it. They led the NFL with 60 sacks, and did so without very much blitzing. Former Texas Aggie Justin Madubuike had a huge season with 13 sacks in earning his first Pro Bowl nod. This spring will mark 10 years since the Texans picked Jadeveon Clowney first overall in the draft. After an injury-plagued flop of a rookie season Clowney was a very good player over the rest of his five seasons here. The Ravens are his fourth team in five seasons since, and the fit has been a very good one. Not a Pro Bowl season for Clowney but he posted nine and a half sacks, and he played all 17 regular season games. Kyle Van Noy produced another nine sacks. The Browns never sacked Stroud. It is very difficult to envision Baltimore not getting to him. The Ravens also have two stud linebackers in Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen, and maybe the best safety in football in second year star Kyle Hamilton. One break the Texans get is Baltimore’s best cornerback Marlon Humphrey coming off of a calf strain suffered New Year’s Eve. He's been ruled out of Saturday's game.

On the flip side the Texans’ pass rush needs to have a good and disciplined day to slow the likely 2023 NFL Most Valuable Player winner. Lamar Jackson completed a career best 67 percent of his passes. He ran more than nine times per game averaging five and a half yards per and totaling 821 yards. Jackson may get favorite target tight end Mark Andrews back Saturday. Andrews has been out since mid-November ankle surgery. Andrews made six touchdown catches in 10 games. His fill-in Isaiah Likely has five TD grabs over his last five games.

Getting off to a good start is an objective for every team in every game. It feels extra important for the Texans in this one. The Ravens can be a runaway train. They won eight games this season by 14 or more points. If the Texans hang around the game pressure mounts on the home team, particularly Jackson who is 1-3 as a playoff starter with the Ravens not topping 20 points in any of the four games with Jackson completing just 56 percent of his passes with three touchdown passes against five interceptions.

The Texans and Ravens have one prior playoff meeting. It was the 2011 season, the Texans’ first ever playoff season. They beat the Bengals at then-Reliant Stadium in the game highlighted by J.J. Watt’s interception return for a touchdown. That earned a trip to Baltimore where the Texans couldn’t overcome Joe Flacco’s two first quarter touchdown passes and T.J. Yates’s three interceptions thrown as the Ravens won 20-13.

Fast-forward 12 years, and the Texans have already overcome Joe Flacco in the playoffs. And the Texans’ upgrade from T.J. to C.J at QB can safely be described as gargantuan. The Texans are actually bigger underdogs this time around, with Baltimore favored by nine to use homefield advantage to advance to the AFC Championship game for the first time since they won the Super Bowl to end the 2012 season. The Texans seek their first ever spot standing among the NFL’s final four. It probably doesn’t happen, but it’s no million to one shot.