THE PALLILOG
Cracking the code: How Texans can turn the tide against Ravens
Jan 18, 2024, 12:46 pm
Can the Texans shock the world against the Ravens? Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images.
The only way to pull off a big upset is to be a big underdog. The Texans have that going for them. The Baltimore Ravens finished the regular season as pretty clearly the best team in the NFL. They finished 13-4 to sit atop the AFC. They likely would have been 14-3 and riding a seven game winning streak if not for sitting quarterback Lamar Jackson and some others in a for Baltimore meaningless regular season finale. The Ravens finished fourth in the NFL in points scored and gave up fewer points than anyone else. They have seven Pro Bowlers to the Texans’ one. Man, seems like the Texans have no chance in Saturday’s Divisional Round matchup! To the undereducated perhaps. Baltimore “should” win the game. If what “should” happen always did, there would be no need to play the games.
This is the fourth season since the NFL expanded the postseason field to 14 teams and reduced the earning of a postseason bye to only the top team in each conference. Last season the top-seeded Chiefs and Eagles both advanced to the Super Bowl. The year before the top-seeded Titans and Packers were both ousted in the Divisional Round. So do the Ravens benefit more from the rest than they could suffer rust from not having played their “A” team in three weeks?
Coming off the rout of the Browns it feels like C.J. Stroud would give the Texans a fighting chance against the 49ers of the late-80s, the Cowboys of the early-90s, or any other elite team one would care to name. Still, before the 45 point eruption against the worst road defense in the NFL (as measured by points per game allowed), the Texans topped 23 points in just one of their prior eight games with Stroud having played in six of the eight. In his NFL debut Stroud never got the Texans in the end zone at Baltimore. Happily, that feels more like three years ago than three months and one week ago.
The Texans’ offensive line will need to fight off being overmatched. The Ravens bring it. They led the NFL with 60 sacks, and did so without very much blitzing. Former Texas Aggie Justin Madubuike had a huge season with 13 sacks in earning his first Pro Bowl nod. This spring will mark 10 years since the Texans picked Jadeveon Clowney first overall in the draft. After an injury-plagued flop of a rookie season Clowney was a very good player over the rest of his five seasons here. The Ravens are his fourth team in five seasons since, and the fit has been a very good one. Not a Pro Bowl season for Clowney but he posted nine and a half sacks, and he played all 17 regular season games. Kyle Van Noy produced another nine sacks. The Browns never sacked Stroud. It is very difficult to envision Baltimore not getting to him. The Ravens also have two stud linebackers in Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen, and maybe the best safety in football in second year star Kyle Hamilton. One break the Texans get is Baltimore’s best cornerback Marlon Humphrey coming off of a calf strain suffered New Year’s Eve. He's been ruled out of Saturday's game.
On the flip side the Texans’ pass rush needs to have a good and disciplined day to slow the likely 2023 NFL Most Valuable Player winner. Lamar Jackson completed a career best 67 percent of his passes. He ran more than nine times per game averaging five and a half yards per and totaling 821 yards. Jackson may get favorite target tight end Mark Andrews back Saturday. Andrews has been out since mid-November ankle surgery. Andrews made six touchdown catches in 10 games. His fill-in Isaiah Likely has five TD grabs over his last five games.
Getting off to a good start is an objective for every team in every game. It feels extra important for the Texans in this one. The Ravens can be a runaway train. They won eight games this season by 14 or more points. If the Texans hang around the game pressure mounts on the home team, particularly Jackson who is 1-3 as a playoff starter with the Ravens not topping 20 points in any of the four games with Jackson completing just 56 percent of his passes with three touchdown passes against five interceptions.
The Texans and Ravens have one prior playoff meeting. It was the 2011 season, the Texans’ first ever playoff season. They beat the Bengals at then-Reliant Stadium in the game highlighted by J.J. Watt’s interception return for a touchdown. That earned a trip to Baltimore where the Texans couldn’t overcome Joe Flacco’s two first quarter touchdown passes and T.J. Yates’s three interceptions thrown as the Ravens won 20-13.
Fast-forward 12 years, and the Texans have already overcome Joe Flacco in the playoffs. And the Texans’ upgrade from T.J. to C.J at QB can safely be described as gargantuan. The Texans are actually bigger underdogs this time around, with Baltimore favored by nine to use homefield advantage to advance to the AFC Championship game for the first time since they won the Super Bowl to end the 2012 season. The Texans seek their first ever spot standing among the NFL’s final four. It probably doesn’t happen, but it’s no million to one shot.
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How Houston Rockets hold the cards for a franchise-changing summer
May 8, 2025, 5:45 pm
In Houston, the winning standard has been set so high that anything short of World Series contention now feels like failure. And yet, the 2025 Astros find themselves at an unfamiliar crossroads—caught between the fading brilliance of past stars and the uncertain promise of what comes next.
Jose Altuve is at the center of this issue. His early struggles (-0.5 WAR) may indicate more than just a temporary slump. And when he swung at the first pitch after Lance McCullers had just endured a grueling 33-pitch inning on Sunday, it raised a bigger question: who has the influence to talk to Altuve?
The Astros’ culture has long been praised for its accountability, but who inside the clubhouse has the standing to challenge or counsel Altuve or other vets when needed? With so many veteran voices gone, there’s a growing sense that no one does—and that’s a problem. That’s why the idea of bringing back Michael Brantley—not as a player, but as a respected voice—could make some sense. Brantley was always viewed as a quiet leader, and his presence could restore some of the guidance this roster desperately needs.
Batter up?
While the Astros have built a reputation for reviving pitchers' careers, their track record with hitters is far less impressive. There are few, if any, examples of a bat joining Houston and unlocking a new level. That failure in development becomes especially stark when considering how much they’re currently leaning on homegrown youth.
Which brings us to Zach Dezenzo. The 24-year-old rookie is showing he belongs—his .737 OPS makes him one of the more productive bats in a lineup that desperately needs stability while Yordan Alvarez nurses an injury. While Victor Caratini provides the Astros with the ability to switch hit, he's hitting just .217. Dezenzo should be starting every day in left, with Yordan out. Jose Altuve, who has already played too many innings this year, should be shifted to DH duties to ease his physical burden. The Astros should go with Cam Smith in right and keep Jake Meyers in center to round out the outfield.
GM Dana Brown has made clear that he views Dezenzo as a first baseman or left fielder for the future. So why not get him in the lineup while Yordan's out and see what he can do with consistent playing time?
Of course, losing Yordan Alvarez is always going to hurt. But the numbers tell a surprising story. Yordan currently holds a -0.4 WAR, right there alongside Altuve and Christian Walker as the only Astros with negative marks. On paper, the team hasn’t lost much production. But let’s not kid ourselves—Yordan’s mere presence alters how opponents pitch to this team. The lineup without him lacks fear factor, and the margins get razor-thin.
Speaking of margins, one move that may haunt this front office is the decision to sign Christian Walker. The veteran first baseman is hitting just .205 with a .617 OPS—far below the level expected from a player earning $20 million annually through 2027. Compare that to Jon Singleton, who posted better numbers in 2024 and currently boasts an .880 OPS in Triple-A with the Mets organization. Walker's defense is strong, but it's hard to argue that justifies the price tag. Singleton might not be a Gold Glover, or anything close, but he came much cheaper and was quietly more productive with the bat.
No regrets?
There’s also a broader question looming: if fans had known that Altuve’s massive contract extension would potentially cost the team the ability to re-sign current MVP candidates Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, would they still have supported the deal? Hindsight is cruel, but with Altuve’s decline and Tucker and Bregman thriving, it’s a fair debate. Houston might have paid for the past instead of securing its future.
Big deals on the horizon?
All eyes now turn to owner Jim Crane. This winter, Houston's payroll will have considerable room to maneuver. But will Crane commit to restocking the lineup with All-Star-caliber bats, or will his reluctance to offer long-term deals keep the Astros stuck in a holding pattern? It’s one thing to let players walk. It’s another to fail to replace them.
The Astros still have the bones of a contender, but the road back to dominance is getting steeper. The team can’t simply rely on what used to work. It’s time for difficult conversations, bold lineup changes, and a rethinking of how this organization develops—and retains—offensive talent.
We have so much more to get to. Don't miss the video below as we examine the topics above and much, much more!
The MLB season is finally upon us! Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday!
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