MAKING THE GRADE
Houston Texans progress report: Here's how the young guns are shaping up
Nov 21, 2023, 3:26 pm
Will Anderson is just getting started. Photo by Logan Riely/Getty Images.
Those of you with kids will know, progress reports are how teachers communicate your child's progress. Imagine that! We are ten games into the 2023 NFL season. The sample size is in for this year's rookie class. Last year's class has a larger sample size, but they're included in this progress report as well. I wanted to take a snapshot look at the youngsters and how they're doing, but also look at some of the perceptions out there. As with some progress reports, your child will receive a pass, fail, or incomplete grade depending on their performance thus far. Let's begin…
C.J. Stroud: Stroud was the number two overall pick in this past draft. He's progressed quite well, despite his three interception performance against the Cardinals. He had a 7.5:1 ratio before that game that dropped to 3.4:1 afterward. Still very respectable. With the team at 6-4 and leading the league in passing yards per game, he's now entered the MVP conversation. Whether he's giving clutch performances, or winning over people with his press conferences and media availability, this kid is a shining star student. Grade: Passing with flying colors! While he has some areas of improvement (getting that completion percentage closer to 70 as opposed to 60), Stroud has far exceeded expectations. In fact, he's been leaps and bounds better than his friend picked number one overall, Bryce Young. You remember him, right? The guy some of you wanted so desperately you were upset for months after the Texans secured the number two pick instead of number one? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
Will Anderson Jr: Will has been pretty good so far. He's shown flashes of his potential, but hasn't quite put it all together just yet. Anyone labeling him a bust or saying the trade wasn't worth it, take a look at the embedded tweet above and ask yourself who would you rather have right now? Right now, I'd rather have 33 tackles (22 solo, 11 assists), three sacks, eight run stuffs for eight yards lost, one blocked kick, and a bleep ton of potential/room for improvement! The position he's asked to play now is more of a hand in the dirt lineman, something he didn't do much of at Alabama. For him to come in as a rookie and still get doubled as often as he does is a testament to his skill. Jonathan Greenard is a talented guy, but do you think he's having this type of season without Anderson on the other side? I don't think so. However, would Anderson be getting as much of a pass if he wasn't teammates with Stroud? I don't think so either. He'd be under a far bigger microscope. Grade: Passing, but needs improvement. He will improve once he's more used to what's being asked of him and once he's more comfortable. No doubt in my mind he'll be a double-digit sack guy very soon.
Derek Stingley Jr: Stingley has been the center of much debate. Most have Sauce Gardner as the consensus best corner in last year's draft. So when the Texans took Stingley over Sauce, the comps were already being drawn. Stingley never stood a chance from the outset after the draft since he wasn't graded on a curve. Sauce went on to be an All Pro as a rookie, while Stingley was limited to just nine games because of injuries. If he can stay healthy, he can show what he's capable of. The Texans took the guy that fit the mold of what they look for and the style they want to play. Grade: Incomplete for now, but might fail if he fails to stay healthy and produce. No. I'm not ready to cut my nose off to spite my face. He's 13 games into his career. If after next season he still showing signs of being injury prone and not playing well, then we can have that discussion. You can't hold him to Sauce's standards per se because he's on a more talented defense that plays more zone (Sauce's specialty) than man (Stingley's specialty).
Kenyon Green: He been out sick (injured) all year and has been on a different school schedule than the others. Last year, he was in class and played in at least 78% of the offensive snaps in 12 of the 15 games he was active for. He started 14 of those 15 games. However, his subpar play was not acceptable for a starting offensive lineman, much less one picked at number 15 overall in the draft. While offensive lineman typically need more time to adjust, Green didn't look like he was adjusting fast enough for fans' liking. Grade: Failing, but will give another chance to do makeup work to improve his grade. He won't get full credit, but the partial credit he gets from coming back from his injury and regaining his starting job would go a mighty long way. So would much improved play, especially pass blocking.
We might have to revisit this at the end of the season. Green's grade won't change until next year...if he's still on the team. Stroud will continue to improve and impress. Anderson will do the same. Stingley is getting better by staying healthy. I think the reps will help both he and Anderson. As the other defensive lineman improve, so will Anderson. When the line improves, the DBs improve because they don't have to cover as long. One thing I will say is to practice more patience with your students. They don't all learn the same, they aren't taught the same skills, and they don't play the same schemes. Comparing them to other students in other schools will only lead to more frustration. Be kind. Be firm, but fair. After all, football is supposed to be fun, right?
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If the Astros were going to win one series and lose the other on their six-game road trip out of the All-Star break, they got it right in taking two out of three games at Seattle then losing two out of three to lousy Oakland. Had they inverted those results, the Astros would not be alone atop the American League West starting this weekend’s series against the Dodgers at Minute Maid Park.
By the schedule the Astros’ sledding now gets tougher. The Dodgers are rolling toward their 11th National League West crown in 12 years, despite their pitching staff having been battered by injuries every bit as much as the Astros’. The Astros will face three rookie starters this weekend. National League Rookie of the Year candidate (non-Paul Skenes division) Gavin Stone goes Friday. Saturday it’s Justin Wrobleski making his fourth big league start, Sunday River Ryan makes his second. 325 million dollar addition Yoshinobu Yamamoto last pitched June 15. Tony Gonsolin is out for the year without throwing a pitch. Clayton Kershaw’s first pitch Thursday marks the first of his season. Tyler Glasnow’s Wednesday return from the Injured List means the Astros won’t face him this weekend.
Aside: Astros’ fan favorite Joe Kelly is back in the Dodgers’ bullpen. He was activated from the IL out of the break, so the opportunity to welcome him back to Minute Maid Park looms!
After the Dodgers, the Pirates hit town with Skenes slated to pitch Monday opposite Jake Bloss. Gulp. Hey, in one game, you never know. Skenes has been the most electric rookie pitcher since Dwight Gooden with the Mets in 1984.
Sleepless in Seattle
The Mariners’ unraveling has reached historic proportions. It’s not easy losing six straight matchups with the lowly Angels but the Mariners were down to the challenge and pulled it off. The M’s have stumble-bummed their way to a 9-20 record over their last 29 games. That’s actually a better winning percentage than the Astros’ had after staggering from the starting gate to a 7-19 mark. Like the Astros did, the Mariners can right their ship, though if they don’t add quality offense before Tuesday’s trade deadline it seems unlikely. Seattle has scored more than two runs in one of its last eight games, the only win among those eight when the Mariners got to Ronel Blanco and Seth Martinez Sunday to avoid an Astros’ sweep. Meanwhile, the Texas Rangers whipping up on the laughingstock Chicago White Sox this week has their World Series title defense very much alive and a threat to overtake both the Astros and Mariners.
The trade deadline is this Tuesday
Tick-tock toward Tuesday’s 5PM Central Time trade deadline. General Manager Dana Brown is on the clock. Let’s start with starting pitchers. Tarik Skubal! Garrett Crochet! Jack Flaherty! Any would be a fabulous addition. If Brown acquires one, he will have done phenomenal work cajoling the trade partner into thinking the Astros’ offer the best. Frankly it seems impossible. The Orioles are in the starting pitcher market. Their farm system runs laps around what the Astros have. Numerous other teams on the hunt for pitching have higher rated minor league talent. The Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys are having a fabulous season, but until the Astros Thursday moved up soon to be 24-year-old Jacob Melton (who was batting just .248 with a .307 on-base percentage at Double-A Corpus Christi) there was not one non-pitcher of any consequence younger than 25 on the roster. Pedro Leon, Shay Whitcomb, Will Wagner, and include Joey Loperfido: it would be shocking if any of them can be the best player in an offer good enough to land one of the potential big trade fish. All four of them wouldn’t be enough to land a Skubal or Crochet.
On the hitter side, if the Blue Jays shop Vlad Jr. and/or the Rays take offers for Paredes, of course Brown better try. Either would be a sharp upgrade over Jon Singleton, and Guerrero can’t become a free agent until after next season, with Paredes under team control through 2027. Reality check time. Seattle’s offense is in dire straits. The Mariners have four prospects rated higher than any Astros’ prospect. If the Mariners didn’t make a winning offer over what the Astros proposed, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto would look like a timid clown.
That said, there will be several second and third tier starters and relievers moved who would boost the Astros. If Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss are both still in the Astros’ starting rotation after the deadline, Dana Brown will have failed. That said, the Astros could well stand pat and win the Mild, Mild West. They could also finish third.
Go for the gold!
With the Olympics underway, a medal podium-style ranking of the Astros’ greatest trade deadline acquisitions:
No medal but cannot be omitted: Randy Johnson. It was a brief fling with “The Big Unit” in 1998 but it was spectacular. It elevated Houston as a baseball city. In 11 regular season starts Johnson went 10-1 with a 1.28 earned run average. He threw shutouts in his first four Astrodome starts. He spiked attendance like no other player in franchise history. Even though the San Diego Padres beat Johnson twice (Johnson pitched fine, the Astros scored two runs total in the two games) and bounced the Astros in a National League Division Series, and prospects Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen included in the deal both went on to have excellent careers, it was a trade that in hindsight you make 100 times out of 100.
Bronze: Jeff Bagwell. Reliever Larry Andersen was outstanding in helping the Boston Red Sox win the AL East in 1990, but the BoSox got swept in the ALCS and Andersen left as a free agent. Bagwell has the greatest offensive resume in Astros’ history (I know, I know, postseason aside) and is quite arguably one of the 10 greatest first basemen of all-time.
Silver: Yordan Alvarez. He has longevity to prove but to this point in his career, while not the all-around player Bagwell was, Yordan is clearly the more destructive force in the batter’s box. Throw in his three monstrously significant home runs in the 2022 Astros’ title run, and his awesome 2023 postseason, and what could still lie ahead for him and the Gold could be his if we revisit this topic 10 years from now. Imagine the Dodgers if they hadn’t gifted Yordan to the Astros for Josh Fields.
Gold: Justin Verlander. Astros’ World Series championships pre-JV, zero. With him, two. Even though his World Series resume is terrible. The finishing piece to the Astros’ initial championship winner in 2017 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts ahead of winning the 2017 ALCS MVP, a second crown in 2022, two Cy Young Awards and a Cy runner-up. Interesting decision to make for the cap on his Hall of Fame plaque. Much more body of work with the Tigers but the championships and legend cemented with the Astros.
*Catch our weekly Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast. Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and I discuss varied Astros topics. The first post for the week generally goes up Monday afternoon (second part released Tuesday) via The SportsMap HOU YouTube channel or listen to episodes in their entirety at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.