ON THE UPSWING
Uncovering all the reasons Houston Texans are so close to breaking through
Jan 22, 2025, 4:13 pm
The arrow is pointing up! Composite Getty Image.
After falling in the divisional round of the playoffs for the second straight season, quarterback C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans believe they’re “really close” to taking the next step and making their first AFC championship game.
The question is what they’ll need to do to get to that level.
For Stroud it will be leaning on a mindset he’s had since his days at Ohio State.
“From Day 1 of the offseason program there has to be a standard set, and that standard has to be … I’m not going to be the one to mess this thing up. Like I’m going to be the one to make this team win the game,” he said. “If that’s Week 1 all the way to the AFC championship. That standard from training camp has to be the standard. I feel like that’s what it needs to be for us to get over that hump.”
The Texans lost 23-14 to the Chiefs on Saturday, their sixth loss in the divisional round and second at Kansas City.
Coach DeMeco Ryans, who has had an 11-8 record in both of his first two years in Houston, said eliminating mistakes should be his team's No. 1 goal.
“The teams that are still standing are teams that don’t shoot themselves in the foot,” he said. “They put themselves in good positions to play complementary football and they do it well. That’s why you’re at the end. So, if we want to be there, we just got to do our jobs and do it on a consistent basis.”
Stroud threw for 245 yards but was hurried and harassed all day in a game where he was sacked eight times. Ka’imi Fairbairn missed a 55-yard field-goal attempt, an extra point and had another field-goal attempt blocked with less than two minutes left, which would have kept Houston’s comeback hopes alive by making it a one-possession game.
The Texans won the AFC South for a second straight season and soundly beat the Chargers at home to advance to play the two-time defending Super Bowl champions.
Defensive end Will Anderson Jr., who has paired with Stroud to help turn around this franchise over the past two seasons, believes Houston has the pieces in place to contend for a title despite another early exit.
“We’re right there,” he said. “I don’t care what nobody says, this is a fantastic team. We’ve got our quarterback. We’ve got everything we need. We’ve just got to keep stacking and keep persevering.”
Dell and Diggs
The Texans could need to add a receiver this offseason with Stefon Diggs becoming an unrestricted free agent and Tank Dell recovering from another serious leg injury.
Diggs had 47 receptions for 496 yards and three touchdowns in eight games this season after a blockbuster trade from Buffalo before a season-ending knee injury.
Stroud has said he’d like to have Diggs back next season, but it’s too early to tell if the Texans will pursue re-signing the 31-year-old.
Dell faces a long recovery after tearing his ACL and dislocating his knee in a loss to Kansas City in December. This injury comes after Dell fractured his fibula in Week 13 against the Broncos in the 2023 season.
Dell was Houston's second-leading receiver behind Nico Collins with 667 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Ryans was asked if Dell's most recent injury could keep him out next season.
“We will continue to assess Tank and see where he ends up,” Ryans said. “It is too early right now to put a timeline on it. We will just give him time to heal and progress, see how the rehab goes.”
Secondary success
Houston’s secondary was a strength of the team this season with the stellar performance of Derek Stingley and the emergence of rookies Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter.
Stingley, the third overall pick in the 2022 draft, shook off two injury-filled seasons to earn first-team AP All-Pro honors. The cornerback ranked second in the NFL in the regular season with 18 passes defensed and grabbed two interceptions in Houston’s wild-card playoff win.
Lassiter, a second-round pick from Georgia, started 14 games and had three interceptions in the regular season and had another pick against the Chargers. Bullock, taken in the third round from Southern California, also had five interceptions in the regular season to tie Stingley for the team lead.
“We’ve got one of the best secondaries in this league and a very young and talented secondary also,” Bullock said. “So, it’s pretty scary for what we’ve got in the future, especially with the plays we made this year.”
Offensive line woes
The Texans will look to improve their offensive line this offseason after they allowed 54 sacks in the regular season and 12 more in the postseason.
“In the playoffs, you’ve got to win your one-on-one battles. That’s what the game always comes down to,” Ryans said. “You have to have some pride in who you’re blocking, to get it done and give the quarterback a chance to throw the football.”
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So how successful was the recently concluded Houston Texans’ season? Their record was the same 10-7 mark posted a year ago, they won a home playoff game as a year ago, and then were eliminated in the Divisional round as a year ago. Coming off three seasons in which the Texans won a total of 11 games, the 2023 campaign went down as an unquestionably tremendous success. Holding steady in 2024? Let’s go with middling success. While more than a few subscribe to the notion that if you’re not going forward you’re going backward, that’s too cut and dried to categorize the 2024 Texans.
Winning a horrible AFC South simply is not an achievement to brag on. That said, the Texans were leaps and bounds better than the horrible. It’s not very long ago that they were the horrible. The South is the only AFC division the Texans would have come close to winning, but while watered down with regard to impressiveness, it’s not as if winning it is meaningless. Eight times now in their 23 seasons of existence the Texans have won the division. Taking nothing else into consideration, that is quite good. With divisions comprised of four teams, if everything was equal over a lengthy period of time (quality of management, coaching, luck, and whatever else) pure math says each team should win its division once every four years. The Texans eight titles in 23 seasons is better than once every three years. Since the current divisional format was adopted when the Texans began playing in 2002, the Colts have won the South nine times, the Titans four times, the Jaguars just twice. The Texans have won their division crowns in pairs: 2011/2012, 2015/2016, 2018/2019, 2023/2024. They will be clear favorites to make it back-to-back-to-back division championships for the first time.
And now to the flip side of the coin. The Texans are an utter failure at achieving anything beyond winning a Wild Card round game on their home field. Eight playoff appearances, a 6-2 record all at home vs. a Wild Card, 0-6 in the Division round, hence zero spots in the AFC Championship game. The Texans have not come close to winning in any of those six defeats. Their best go of it was their first ever postseason, the 2011 season. The Texans were at Baltimore, and twice in the last three minutes of the fourth quarter took possession trailing 20-13. The first of those possessions featured consecutive T.J. Yates (!) completions to Andre Johnson that got them near midfield. Yates’s next throw was also intended for Johnson. It was a deep ball intercepted by Ed Reed (that would not be the last time Ed Reed was involved in a poor outcome for the Texans but that’s a wholly different topic). The Texans then forced a Ravens’ three and out and took over after the punt at their own 48-yard-line with 45 seconds left. Yates threw four straight incompletions and that was that. Thirteen years later the Texans have come no closer to the NFL’s semifinals. Using the same simple math that dictates a team should win its division every four years, with sixteen teams competing for two spots in the Conference Championship game, over the long haul a franchise should average an appearance once every eight years. The Texans are still sitting on zero. The Cleveland Browns (2.0 edition) are the only other AFC franchise to never get within one victory of the Super Bowl.
Other than the seven point loss to the Ravens, Saturday’s defeat in Kansas City is the only other non-double digit Texans’ playoff loss, and that was a nine point game only because the Chiefs took a safety in the final seconds. Their other six playoff losses have come by an average of 19.83 points. That drives home the fact that the Texans have yet to ever be true Super Bowl contenders.
Waiting for Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson to decline isn’t much of a plan. Will C.J. Stroud evolve into a quarterback worthy of belonging in at least the same paragraph as those three, if not the same sentence? Will Nick Caserio atone for his arrogant and erroneous declaration that it was a “lazy narrative” to point to the Texans’ offensive line play as, well, offensive? Those are two of the bigger questions to which the answers will shape the Texans’ ceilingfor 2025 and beyond.The nucleus of a potentially elite defense is there with Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter (for one more season at least), Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and Calen Bullock. It’s not supremely difficult to get pretty good in the NFL. Greatness is a much higher hurdle to clear. The Texans are pretty good. Pretty good may be good enough to win another cute little division championship banner. Can they deliver great?
Still three weeks to go until the doors open at spring training, but the Astros are always in season for our discussion. New Stone Cold ‘Stros podcasts drop each Monday, with intense negotiations in progress to add a Thursday episode also. Click here to watch!