KEYS TO SUCCESS
How Texans’ path to victory over Chiefs starts with these six important keys
Dec 20, 2024, 10:41 am
The Texans need Nico Collins to have a big game. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.
Houston (9-5) at Kansas City (13-1)
Saturday, 1 p.m. EST, NBC/Peacock
BetMGM NFL Odds: Chiefs by 3.
Against the spread: Texans 6-6-2, Chiefs 6-8.
Series record: Chiefs lead 9-5.
Last meeting: Chiefs beat Texans 30-24 in OT on Dec. 18, 2022, in Houston.
Last week: Texans beat Dolphins 20-12; Chiefs beat Browns 21-7.
Texans offense: overall (19), rush (17), pass (19), scoring (13).
Texans defense: overall (4), rush (10), pass (6), scoring (10).
Chiefs offense: overall (14), rush (16), pass (13), scoring (12).
Chiefs defense: overall (5), rush (3), pass (13), scoring (5).
Turnover differential: Texans plus-13, Chiefs plus-2.
Texans player to watch
Derek Stingley had two interceptions and two tackles for loss Sunday, becoming the first cornerback in NFL history with two of each in a game. Both interceptions came in the fourth quarter, including one with less than two minutes remaining that secured Houston’s victory. Stingley, the third overall pick in the 2022 draft, has started each game this season after being slowed by injuries in this first two years. He has four interceptions in the past four games and is second in the NFL with 17 passes defended.
Chiefs players to watch
Whomever is playing quarterback. The eyes all week have been on two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes, who sustained a high-ankle sprain late in last week's win in Cleveland. Carson Wentz finished that game, and while it appears that Mahomes will be able to start Saturday, the Chiefs feel confident in the veteran backup's ability to win a game should Mahomes be unable to play. Wentz completed his only two passes for 20 yards against the Browns, helping to run out the clock on the 21-7 victory.
Key matchup
The Texans defense against the Chiefs defense. There are stars galore on the other side of the ball — Mahomes and C.J. Stroud, Travis Kelce and Joe Mixon, DeAndre Hopkins and Nico Collins. Yet both teams have relied heavily on their defenses to clinch division titles. Houston has the league's fourth ranked overall and is No. 6 against the pass, while Kansas City is at No. 5 overall and No. 3 against the run. Both are in the top 10 in scoring.
Key injuries
Texans TE Cade Stover could miss a second straight game after having an emergency appendectomy last Saturday night. DT Foley Fatukasi (ankle) and WR John Metchie (shoulder) missed practice this week. ... Along with Mahomes' sore ankle, Chiefs CB Chamarri Conner (concussion) and LT D.J. Humphries (hamstring) missed practice this week.
Series notes
The Chiefs have won the past three meetings, beginning with a 51-31 win in the divisional round of the playoffs in the 2019 season. Houston has not beaten the Chiefs since a 31-24 victory at Arrowhead Stadium on Oct. 13, 2019. The teams also met in a wild-card playoff game in the 2015 season that Kansas City won 30-0.
Stats and stuff
Houston clinched its second straight division title and eighth in franchise history last week. … Texans QB C.J. Stroud needs 252 yards passing to become the ninth quarterback in NFL history with at least 3,500 yards passing in each of his first two seasons. … Houston RB Joe Mixon has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD in each of his six road games this season. He had a TD reception against the Chiefs last season while with Cincinnati. He also needs 90 yards rushing for his fifth 1,000-yard season. … Texans WR Nico Collins had two TD catches last week and ranks second in the NFL with 94.3 yards receiving per game this season. … Houston TE Dalton Schultz has had five or more catches in his past two road games. … DE Danielle Hunter had 1½ sacks for Houston last week to give him 12 this season, which ranks second in the NFL. … Texans DE Will Anderson Jr. had a sack and his first career forced fumble last week. He has a career-high 10½ sacks this season. ... The Chiefs need one win to match the best regular-season total in franchise history, set in 2020 and matched two years ago. ... Mahomes needs one TD pass to pass Dan Marino (241) for the second-most TD passes in a player's first eight seasons. Mahomes only played in one game his rookie year. ... TE Travis Kelce needs one TD reception to pass Tony Gonzalez (76) for the most in Chiefs history. Kelce has 79 total TDs, four shy of Priest Holmes' franchise record. ... Kelce has 89 catches of 25 yards or more in his career. He needs 10 more to break Rob Gronkowski's record for a tight end. ... DT Chris Jones needs six sacks to pass Neil Smith (85 1/2) for the third most in Chiefs history. ... Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie had his first NFL interception last week against Cleveland. It came in his 48th game.
Fantasy tip
The Chiefs have shared carries between Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt since the former's return from an injury. That is unlikely to change Saturday. But given the uncertainty at quarterback for Kansas City, expect both of them to get more work, and perhaps find the end zone once or twice against the Texans.
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Now that spring training is officially underway, we're able to make some observations about how the Astros 2025 roster is taking shape.
Houston's starting rotation is basically set, but we got to see Hayden Wesneski make his first start in an Astro uniform. Wesneski pitched two innings against the Mets on Tuesday, allowing one run with three strikeouts.
He's working on a curveball that's a new pitch for his repertoire, and he saw some success with it. Hopefully, adding this pitch will help keep batters off balance (especially left-handed hitters) and help elevate his game. Which is nothing new for the Astros, who have a history of helping pitchers get to the next level.
Forrest Whitley also looked good, pitching a clean inning and finishing off his final hitter with a 97 mph fastball. Whitley finally realizing his potential in the big leagues could be a huge deal for the Astros, as they're looking to lighten the workload for Bryan Abreu and Josh Hader this season.
Hader in particular could benefit from this adjustment, as he was much worse when pitching in non-save situations last season. An easy fix with Hader could be trying to limit his workload to mostly save situations. That way, you get the most out of him and achieve the goal of him pitching less innings this year.
The Houston Chronicle's Matt Kawahara wrote about Hader's struggles pitching when games were tied or Houston was trailing.
“Hader converted 34 of 38 save chances but faced more batters in non-save situations (142) than in save situations (136), a sharp pivot from his previous few seasons. Opponents slugged .271 against him in save situations and .411 in non-save situations, while his ERA was more than two runs higher (4.98) in the latter.”
And while it's easy to say “suck it up, you're getting paid a fortune to pitch,” if he's not having success in those situations, and you're looking to back off his workload, this seems like an obvious way to pivot. He's under contract for another four seasons, so the Astros are right to want to be careful with him.
Astros plate discipline
Manager Joe Espada has made it very clear that he would like his offense to see more pitches this season. And we're seeing a stark difference in the approaches from the newly acquired players (Isaac Paredes, Christian Walker) and Houston's returning hitters.
Keep in mind, Paredes was first in pitches per plate appearance last season, and Walker was 10th.
So it shouldn't come as a surprise that Paredes and Walker both worked a full count in their first at-bats on Tuesday, while Mauricio Dubon, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick swung at every pitch in their first at-bats.
Hopefully the new blood in the clubhouse will rub off on the rest of the Astros lineup, which is full of free swingers, especially with Alex Bregman now playing for Boston.
Which is why we're so excited about Cam Smith's early results. While we're super pumped about his two home runs on Tuesday, we're equally impressed that he walked in his first two at-bats this spring. If anyone would naturally be jumping out of their shoes to make a strong first impression, you would think it's the guy that was traded for Kyle Tucker. But Smith was patient, and he was rewarded for it.
What is Dana Brown saying privately?
Just last offseason, Brown was talking about extending Tucker and Bregman while also signing Hader to a shocking 5-year, $95 million deal. Plus, the team signed Jose Altuve to a whopping $150 million extension. Fast-forward one year and Tucker has been traded, Bregman left in free agency, and Ryan Pressly was dealt in a salary dump. Safe to say, his vision for the ball club has changed drastically in one season. Welcome to baseball economics under Jim Crane!
We're just scratching the surface on everything covered in the video above. Be sure to hit play to watch the full conversation!
The countdown to Opening Day is on. Join Brandon Strange, Josh Jordan, and Charlie Pallilo for the Stone Cold ‘Stros podcast which drops each Monday afternoon, with an additional episode now on Thursday. Click here to catch!
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