KEYS TO SUCCESS
How Texans’ path to victory over Chiefs starts with these six important keys
Dec 20, 2024, 10:41 am
The Texans need Nico Collins to have a big game. Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images.
Houston (9-5) at Kansas City (13-1)
Saturday, 1 p.m. EST, NBC/Peacock
BetMGM NFL Odds: Chiefs by 3.
Against the spread: Texans 6-6-2, Chiefs 6-8.
Series record: Chiefs lead 9-5.
Last meeting: Chiefs beat Texans 30-24 in OT on Dec. 18, 2022, in Houston.
Last week: Texans beat Dolphins 20-12; Chiefs beat Browns 21-7.
Texans offense: overall (19), rush (17), pass (19), scoring (13).
Texans defense: overall (4), rush (10), pass (6), scoring (10).
Chiefs offense: overall (14), rush (16), pass (13), scoring (12).
Chiefs defense: overall (5), rush (3), pass (13), scoring (5).
Turnover differential: Texans plus-13, Chiefs plus-2.
Texans player to watch
Derek Stingley had two interceptions and two tackles for loss Sunday, becoming the first cornerback in NFL history with two of each in a game. Both interceptions came in the fourth quarter, including one with less than two minutes remaining that secured Houston’s victory. Stingley, the third overall pick in the 2022 draft, has started each game this season after being slowed by injuries in this first two years. He has four interceptions in the past four games and is second in the NFL with 17 passes defended.
Chiefs players to watch
Whomever is playing quarterback. The eyes all week have been on two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes, who sustained a high-ankle sprain late in last week's win in Cleveland. Carson Wentz finished that game, and while it appears that Mahomes will be able to start Saturday, the Chiefs feel confident in the veteran backup's ability to win a game should Mahomes be unable to play. Wentz completed his only two passes for 20 yards against the Browns, helping to run out the clock on the 21-7 victory.
Key matchup
The Texans defense against the Chiefs defense. There are stars galore on the other side of the ball — Mahomes and C.J. Stroud, Travis Kelce and Joe Mixon, DeAndre Hopkins and Nico Collins. Yet both teams have relied heavily on their defenses to clinch division titles. Houston has the league's fourth ranked overall and is No. 6 against the pass, while Kansas City is at No. 5 overall and No. 3 against the run. Both are in the top 10 in scoring.
Key injuries
Texans TE Cade Stover could miss a second straight game after having an emergency appendectomy last Saturday night. DT Foley Fatukasi (ankle) and WR John Metchie (shoulder) missed practice this week. ... Along with Mahomes' sore ankle, Chiefs CB Chamarri Conner (concussion) and LT D.J. Humphries (hamstring) missed practice this week.
Series notes
The Chiefs have won the past three meetings, beginning with a 51-31 win in the divisional round of the playoffs in the 2019 season. Houston has not beaten the Chiefs since a 31-24 victory at Arrowhead Stadium on Oct. 13, 2019. The teams also met in a wild-card playoff game in the 2015 season that Kansas City won 30-0.
Stats and stuff
Houston clinched its second straight division title and eighth in franchise history last week. … Texans QB C.J. Stroud needs 252 yards passing to become the ninth quarterback in NFL history with at least 3,500 yards passing in each of his first two seasons. … Houston RB Joe Mixon has had at least 100 yards rushing and a TD in each of his six road games this season. He had a TD reception against the Chiefs last season while with Cincinnati. He also needs 90 yards rushing for his fifth 1,000-yard season. … Texans WR Nico Collins had two TD catches last week and ranks second in the NFL with 94.3 yards receiving per game this season. … Houston TE Dalton Schultz has had five or more catches in his past two road games. … DE Danielle Hunter had 1½ sacks for Houston last week to give him 12 this season, which ranks second in the NFL. … Texans DE Will Anderson Jr. had a sack and his first career forced fumble last week. He has a career-high 10½ sacks this season. ... The Chiefs need one win to match the best regular-season total in franchise history, set in 2020 and matched two years ago. ... Mahomes needs one TD pass to pass Dan Marino (241) for the second-most TD passes in a player's first eight seasons. Mahomes only played in one game his rookie year. ... TE Travis Kelce needs one TD reception to pass Tony Gonzalez (76) for the most in Chiefs history. Kelce has 79 total TDs, four shy of Priest Holmes' franchise record. ... Kelce has 89 catches of 25 yards or more in his career. He needs 10 more to break Rob Gronkowski's record for a tight end. ... DT Chris Jones needs six sacks to pass Neil Smith (85 1/2) for the third most in Chiefs history. ... Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie had his first NFL interception last week against Cleveland. It came in his 48th game.
Fantasy tip
The Chiefs have shared carries between Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt since the former's return from an injury. That is unlikely to change Saturday. But given the uncertainty at quarterback for Kansas City, expect both of them to get more work, and perhaps find the end zone once or twice against the Texans.
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The Astros welcomed first baseman Christian Walker to the team Monday, in one of two moves that almost certainly marks the end of Alex Bregman’s time in Houston.
Walker signed a $60 million, three-year contract that will pay him $20 million annually just more than a week after the Astros acquired infielder Isaac Paredes from Cubs in the trade that sent outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago.
“The way I view it right now is Paredes is going to play third base and Walker is going to play first base,” general manager Dana Brown said Monday. “And Bregman’s still a free agent.”
The Astros had hoped to re-sign Bregman, the team’s third baseman for the last nine seasons, but Brown said the negotiations stalled.
“I thought we made a really competitive offer, showing that we wanted him back,” he said. “But we had to pursue other options. We couldn’t just sit there. We locked in Paredes early in that trade, knowing that he could play third or first and then when the opportunity to add another bat came up we just jumped on it.”
The addition of a first baseman was a priority this offseason for the Astros after they released struggling first baseman José Abreu less than halfway through a $58.5 million, three-year contract.
“We knew we had to get better at first base,” Brown said. “We pursued (Walker) and we’re excited to have him because we know that we’re going to have a really good first baseman that can defend and also hit the ball on the seats from time to time.”
Walked was attracted by the sustained success of the Astros, who won their first two World Series titles in 2017 and '22.
“I’ve been watching this team for a while now, and that edge, the energy, the expectation, you can tell that they’re going out there with a standard,” he said. “And I’m very excited to be a part of it.”
Walker is looking forward playing on an infield with star second baseman Jose Altuve. He’s fascinated by the success and consistency Altuve has had over his 14-year career.
“I get a chance to learn from Jose Altuve,” Walker said. “Nothing really gets better than that.”
Brown was asked what he would tell fans disappointed to see the Astros lose another star after George Springer and Carlos Correa left as free agents in recent years.
“I would just tell the fans that look, we are very focused on remaining competitive,” he said. “We’re very focused on winning division and going back to the World Series, and I think with these additions that we have the ability to do that. So, I feel strongly that we’re going to be picked to win the division first off. And if our pitching holds up, which I feel strongly about, as well, I think we’ll get deep into the postseason.”
The Astros won the AL West for a fourth straight year this season before being swept by the Tigers in an AL Wild Card Series.
Walker, who turns 34 during the opening week of the season, hit .251 with 26 homers, 84 RBIs, 55 walks and 133 strikeouts this year. That was down from 2023, when he batted .258 with 33 homers and 103 RBIs as the Diamondbacks reached the World Series.
Walker played in 130 games this year, down from 157 in 2023 and 160 in 2022. He was sidelined between July 29 and Sept. 3 by a strained left oblique.
He spent the last eight seasons with the Diamondbacks, where he hit 146 homers with 442 RBIs and a .251 batting average.
He didn’t secure a full-time job in the big leagues until 2019. He’s provided consistent power over the past six seasons and has grown into an elite defensive first baseman, winning Gold Gloves in each of the past three seasons.
Walker played college ball at South Carolina and was drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in 2012. He made his big league debut with the Orioles in 2014 but couldn’t stick in the majors and was claimed off waivers by Atlanta, Cincinnati and Arizona in a five-week span.
Walker’s contract has a limited no-trade provision allowing him to block deals to six teams without his consent. He would earn $200,000 for winning an MVP, $175,000 for second, $150,000 for third, $125,000 for fourth and $100,000 for fifth.
Walker also would get $100,000 for World Series MVP, $50,000 for League Championship Series MVP and $75,000 apiece for making the All-Star Game or winning a Gold Glove or Silver Slugger Award.
Infielder Grae Kessinger was designated for assignment to open a roster spot.