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Exploring key elements boosting Houston Texans into Super Bowl contention
Aug 28, 2024, 12:57 pm
It's Super Bowl or bust for Houston! Composite Getty Image.
EXPECTATIONS: The Texans made a remarkable turnaround last season with first-year coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud to go from worst to first in the AFC South. They spent the offseason upgrading their roster by adding star receiver Stefon Diggs, running back Joe Mixon and pass rusher Danielle Hunter raising hopes that this could be their year. The team should be improved thanks to the new additions and the continued development of last year’s AP Offensive Player of the Year Stroud and defensive end Will Anderson Jr., who won the defensive rookie honor. They are expected to win their division again and have Super Bowl aspirations, but they have a difficult schedule with a Nov. 10 game against Detroit and games against Kansas City and Baltimore four days apart in December.
NEW FACES: Diggs, Mixon, Hunter, DE Denico Autry, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DE Mario Edwards Jr., P Tommy Townsend, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Lonnie Johnson Jr., CB Desmond King, CB C.J. Henderson.
KEY LOSSES: DE Jonathan Greenard, LB Blake Cashman, CB Steven Nelson, LB Denzel Perryman, DT Sheldon Rankins, RB Devin Singletary, OL Michael Dieter, OT George Fant, DT Teair Tart, OT Josh Jones.
STRENGTHS: Stroud and a stacked group of receivers should be the team’s biggest strength. The second overall pick in the 2023 draft threw for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions last season. Nico Collins returns after finishing with a career-high 1,297 yards receiving and eight touchdowns last year. He’ll pair with Diggs, who has had six straight 1,000-yard receiving seasons, to give the Texans two elite receivers. They also return Tank Dell, who had 709 yards receiving with seven scores as a rookie before breaking his leg in the 11th game. The receiving group also includes veteran Robert Woods and John Metchie III, a standout at Alabama, who had a great preseason in his second year back after missing his rookie season fighting cancer.
WEAKNESSES: While Houston’s defensive end combination of Hunter and Anderson should be another strength of the team, the interior defensive line isn’t nearly as strong. The Texans signed Folorunso Fatukasi and Mario Edwards to one-year deals this offseason and they’ll start at the defensive tackle spots. Fatukasi was picked up after he was released by the Jaguars and Edwards has bounced around a lot and Houston is his fifth team in six seasons.
CAMP DEVELOPMENT: The Texans learned that they won’t have Autry for the early part of the season after he was suspended six games for violating the NFL’s policy against performance-enhancers early this month. Autry signed a two-year, $20 million contract with the team in March after he had a career-high 11½ sacks last season for the Titans. He said in a statement that he did not intentionally violate the policy and that it stemmed from doctors submitting a prescription for a different medication that contained a banned substance.
FANTASY PLAYER TO WATCH: Mixon could be a good fantasy addition because he’ll not only pick up points in the running game but is also a threat out of the backfield. He had 1,034 yards rushing with nine touchdowns for his fourth career 1,000-yard rushing season last year. He added 376 yards receiving and tied a career high with three TD catches for the Bengals in 2023.
HOUSTON TEXANS (11-8)
BetMGM Sportsbook: Win Super Bowl: 16-1. Over/under wins: 9 1/2.
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It was midway through the third quarter of the Oklahoma City-Houston NBA Cup semifinal matchup on Saturday night. Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had just made a short jumper in the lane and, to his delight, a time-out was immediately called.
He needed it.
He retreated to midcourt, crouched down, propped himself up by his fingertips and took deep breath after deep breath. It was that sort of night. And given the way the Rockets and Thunder have defended all season long, such a game was predictable.
In the end, it was Oklahoma City 111, Houston 96 in a game where the teams combined to shoot 41%. The immediate reward for the Thunder: two days off to recover. The bigger reward: a matchup with Milwaukee on Tuesday night for the NBA Cup, with more than $300,000 per player the difference between winning and losing.
“That's what defense does for you,” said Thunder coach Mark Daigneault, whose team has held opponents to 41% shooting or worse a league-best 11 times this season — and is 11-0 in those games. “It keeps you in games.”
The Rockets-Thunder semifinal was basketball, with elements of football, rugby, hockey and probably even some wrestling thrown in. It wasn't unusual. It's how they play: defense-first, tough, gritty, physical.
They are the two top teams in the NBA in terms of field-goal percentage defense — Oklahoma City came in at 42.7%, Houston at 43.4% — and entered the night as two of the top three in scoring defense. Orlando led entering Saturday at 103.7 per game, Oklahoma City was No. 2 at 103.8, Houston No. 3 at 105.9. (The Thunder, by holding Houston to 96, passed the Magic for the top spot on Saturday.)
Houston finished 36.5% from the field, its second-worst showing of the season. When the Rockets shoot 41% or better, they're 17-4. When they don't, they're 0-5.
“Sometimes it comes down to making shots,” Rockets coach Ime Udoka said. “Especially in the first half, we guarded well enough. ... But you put a lot of pressure on your defense when you're not making shots.”
Even though scoring across the NBA is down slightly so far this season, about a point per game behind last season's pace and two points from the pace of the 2022-23 season, it's still a golden age for offense in the league. Consider: Boston scored 51 points in a quarter earlier this season.
Saturday was not like most games. The halftime score: Rockets 42, Thunder 41. Neither team crossed the 50-point mark until Dillon Brooks' 3-pointer for Houston gave the Rockets a 51-45 lead with 8:46 left in the third quarter.
Brooks is generally considered one of the game's tougher defenders. Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the game's best scorers. They're teammates on Canada's national team, and they had some 1-on-1 moments on Saturday.
“It's fun. It makes you better,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “That's what this league is about, competing against the best in the world and defensively, he is that for sure. And I like to think that of myself offensively. He gives me a chance to really see where I'm at, a good test. I'd say I handled it pretty well.”
Indeed he did. Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 32 points, the fifth instance this season of someone scoring that many against the Rockets. He's done it twice, and the Thunder scored 70 points in the second half to pull away.
“We knew that if we kept getting stops we would give ourselves a chance,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “And we did so.”